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The Economic Impacts of Avian Influenza on World Poultry Trade and the U.S. Poultry Industry: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2015

Harjanto Djunaidi  and
Andrew C.M. Djunaidi
Harjanto Djunaidi
Affiliation:
Customer Management Risk Modeling, American Express, Inc., Chicago, IL
Andrew C.M. Djunaidi
Affiliation:
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL
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Abstract

Simulation results showed that simultaneous outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Asia, the United States, Brazil, and selected European countries will have significant impacts on world poultry trade. Assuming demand for chicken meat is constant, the global export price is simulated to increase by 9.63%. HPAI outbreaks in the United States, Economic Union, and Brazil will have a greater impact on export price than in any other possible three-region case. Outbreaks in the United States and Brazil would still lead to major impacts on world poultry trade, confirming large country effects.

Keywords

birds fluCenters for Disease Control and Preventioneconomic impactsH5N1HPAI diseasespatial equilibriumU.S. poultry industryworld chicken tradeQ17Q11Q18F14F17F47
Type
Invited Paper Sessions
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 39 , Issue 2 , August 2007 , pp. 313 - 323
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 2007

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