Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rcrh6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T03:49:00.106Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Demand and Supply of U.S. Agricultural Exports: The Case of Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2015

Tassos Haniotis ,
John Baffes  and
Glenn C. W. Ames
Tassos Haniotis
Affiliation:
Centre for European Agricultural Studies, Wye College, University of London
John Baffes
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland
Glenn C. W. Ames
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Georgia
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The demand for and supply of U.S. wheat, corn, and soybean exports is specified in a dynamic framework. Obtained results indicate differences in the export behavior of each product. U.S. corn exports are elastic, while U.S. soybean exports exhibit an inelastic response. For wheat, the derived elasticity of export demand had a positive sign. Hypothesis testing validated the dynamic structure of the estimated models in all markets. Stability properties were confirmed in export markets of corn and soybeans, but results were inconclusive for the wheat market. Adjustment coefficients indicate that exports and export prices do not adjust immediately to their equilibrium levels. Multiplier impacts indicate a stable path of convergence for all markets, with minimal impact of exogenous shocks on wheat and corn exports and export prices. Soybean export prices exhibit a significant response to changes in domestic export capacity, but minimal response to other exogenous shocks.

Keywords

U.S. wheatcornsoybean exportsexport elasticitiesmarket stability
Type
Submitted Articles
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 20 , Issue 2 , December 1988 , pp. 45 - 56
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 1988

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abbott, P.C.. “Estimating U.S. Agricultural Export Demand Elasticities: Econometric and Economic Issues.” Paper presented at the IATRC Analytical Symposium on “Elasticities in International Agricultural Trade,” Dearborn, MI, July 30-August 1, 1987.Google Scholar
Bredahl, M.E., Meyers, W. H., and Collins, K. J.. “The Elasticity of Foreign Demand for U.S. Agricultural Products: The Importance of the Price Transmission Elasticity.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 61(1979):58–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chow, G.C.. Analysis and Control of Dynamic Economic Systems. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1975.Google Scholar
Davison, C.W., and Arnade, C. A.. “Export Elasticities for U.S. Soybeans. Estimation Alter natives.” Selected paper presented at the SAEA annual meeting, New Orleans, LA, February 1-3, 1988.Google Scholar
Durbin, J, “Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables.” Econometrica, 38(1970):410–421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dutton, J., and Grennes, T.. “Alternative Measures of Effective Exchange Rates for Agricultural Trade.” Eur. Rev. Agr. Econ., 14(1988):427–442.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Figueroa, E., and Webb, A.. “An Analysis of the U.S. Grain Embargo Using a Quarterly Armington-type Model.” Embargoes, Surplus Disposal, and U.S. Agriculture Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Staff Report No. AGES860910, Economic Research Service, November 1986.Google Scholar
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. FAO Trade Yearbook. Rome. Selected years.Google Scholar
Freebairn, J.W., Rausser, G. C., and Gorter, H. de. “Monetary Policy and U.S. Agriculture” International Agricultural Trade. Ed. Storey, G. C.Schmitz, A., and Sarris, A. H.. Boulder: Westview Press, 1984.Google Scholar
Gallant, A.R., and Jorgenson, D. W.. “Statistical Inference for a System of Simultaneous, Nonlinear, Implicit Equations in the Context of Instrumental Variables Estimation.” J. Econometrics, 119(1979):275–302.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gardiner, W.H., and Dixit, P. M.. “Price Elasticity of Export Demand: Concepts and Estimates.” Foreign Agricultural Economic Report No. 228, IED/ERS/USDA. Washington, DC: February 1987.Google Scholar
Gilmour, B., and Fawcett, P.. “The Relationship between U.S. and Canadian Wheat Prices.” Canadian J. Agr. Econ., 35(1987):571–589.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstein, M., and Khan, M. S.. “The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach.” Rev. Econ. & Stat., 60(1978):275–286.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstein, M., and Khan, M. S.. “Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade.” Handbook of International Economics. Ed. Jones, R.W..and Kenen, P.B.. Amsterdam:North-Holland, 1984.Google Scholar
Houthakker, H.S., and Magee, S. P.. “Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade.” Rev. Econ. & Stat., 51(1969):111–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
International Monetary Fund. International Financial Statistics, Yearbook of 1985. Washington, DC, 1985.Google Scholar
Meyers, W.H., Devadoss, S., and Helmar, M. D.. “Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Cross-Commodity and Cross-Country Impact Products.” J. Policy Modeling, 9(1987):455–482.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, S.E., Capps, O., and Wells, G. J.. “Confidence Intervals for Elasticities and Flexibilities from Linear Equations.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 66(1984):392–396.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orcutt, G. “Measurement of Price Elasticities in International Trade.” Rev. Econ. & Stat., 32(1950):117–132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orden, D. “Agriculture, Trade, and Macroeconomics: The U.S. Case.” J. Policy Modeling, 8(1986):27–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paarlberg, P.L., and Abbott, P. C.. “Oligopolistic Behavior by Public Agencies in International Trade: The World Wheat Market.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 68(1986):528–542.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paarlberg, P.L., Webb, A. J., Morey, A., and Sharpies, J. A.. “Impacts of Policy on U.S. Agricultural Trade.” ERS Staff Report No. AGES840802, IED/ERS/USDA. Washington, DC: December 1984.Google Scholar
Rausser, G.C.. “Macroeconomics and U.S. Agricultural Policy.” Agricultural Policy. Ed. Gardner, B.. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, 1985.Google Scholar
Rausser, G.C., Chalfant, J. A., Love, H. A., and Stamoulis, K. G.. “Macroeconomic Linkages, Taxes, and Subsidies in the U.S. Agricultural Sector.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 68(1986):399–412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sargan, J.D.. “Some Discrete Approximations to Continuous Time Stochastic Models.” J. Royal. Stat. Soc, 34 Series B(1975):74–90.Google Scholar
Sarris, A.H., and Freebairn, J.. “Endogenous Price Policies and International Wheat Prices.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 65(1983):214–224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schmitz, A.A., McCalla, F., Mitchell, D. O., and Carter, C. A.. Grain Export Cartels. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1981.Google Scholar
United Nations, Statistical Office. Commodity Trade Statistics. New York. Selected years.Google Scholar
United States Congress, Office of Technology Assessment. A Review of U.S. Competitiveness in Agricultural Trade—A Technical Memorandum. OTA-TM-TET 29. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1986.Google Scholar
United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States, Calendar Year Supplements, selected years.Google Scholar
United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.Unpublished supply utilization tables for wheat, corn, and soybeans.Google Scholar
United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Foreign Agriculture Service. Foreign Agricultural Circular: Oilseeds and Products, selected issues.Google Scholar