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An Evaluation of the Rice Outlook and Situation Price Forecasts

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2015

Emmett W. Elam  and
Shelby H. Holder
Emmett W. Elam
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Arkansas
Shelby H. Holder
Affiliation:
Economic Research Service, USDA
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Abstract

The Rice Outlook and Situation (RO&S) forecasts were compared to the forecasts of a univariate Box-Jenkins (BJ) model. On balance, the RO&S forecasts had lower mean square forecast errors and lower mean absolute forecast errors than the BJ model forecasts. The differences in the squared and absolute forecast errors were not significant, however. Based on the concept of conditional efficiency as set forth by Granger and Newbold, it was found that the BJ forecasts did not add any information that might improve forecast accuracy beyond what was already incorporated in the RO&S forecasts.

Keywords

rice priceforecast evaluationunivariate time series
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 17 , Issue 2 , December 1985 , pp. 155 - 162
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 1985

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