Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-24T12:22:20.710Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Forecasting Rail Freight Traffic from a Statewide Economic Model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2016

Jeffrey L. Jordan  and
Stanley R. Thompson
Jeffrey L. Jordan
Affiliation:
University of Georgia
Stanley R. Thompson
Affiliation:
Michigan State University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to develop a procedure for estimating future rail traffic that considers the relationship between the structure of a state's economy and rail freight traffic. The study expands the use of input-output models to include the forecasting of transportation demand. Georgia and Michigan case studies were used to test the forecasting capability of the input-output procedure. For Michigan's 1980 rail movements, the model predicted rail traffic to within 0.15 percent of actual traffic. For 1979 Georgia traffic, the model predicted within 4.3 percent of actual traffic. Various statistical tests indicate that the procedure was effective in forecasting rail freight traffic.

Keywords

forecastingrailinput-output
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 16 , Issue 2 , December 1984 , pp. 83 - 90
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 1984

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Akioka, L. M., ed. 1982 Georgia Statistical Abstract. Division of Research, College of BusinessAdministration, University of Georgia: Athens, Georgia, 1982.Google Scholar
Chung, C. C. and Roberts, Paul O.. “Design of a Structure and Data Analysis Scheme for Intercity Freight Demand Forecasting.” Center for Transportation Studies Report 75-15, Cambridge, Massachusetts: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1975.Google Scholar
Diamond, J. and Chappelle, D.. “Application of an Input-Output Model Based on Secondary Data in Local Planning: The Case of Maistee County.” Agr. Exp. Sta. Res. Rep. No. 409, East Lansing, Michigan State University, 1981.Google Scholar
Economic Report of the Governor, Retail Sales Tax Collections, Lansing, Michigan: 1977-1981.Google Scholar
Economic Report of the President, Washington, DC: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1983.Google Scholar
Georgia Crop Reporting Service. Georgia Agricultural Facts, Athens, Georgia: 1978 and 1982.Google Scholar
Harrington, D. H.“Quadratic Input-Output Analysis: Methodology for Empirical General Equilibrium Model.” Ph.D. Dissertation, Purdue University, 1973.Google Scholar
Johnson, Marc A. “Estimating the Influence of Service Quality on Transportation Demand.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 58:496–503, 1976.Google Scholar
Jordan, Jeffrey L. A Generalized Procedure for Estimating State Rail Freight Traffic, Ga. Exp. Sta. Res. Bull. 311, July 1984.Google Scholar
Jordan, Jeffrey L. and Thompson, Stanley R.. “Using a Regional Input-Output Model to Forecast Rail Freight Traffic: With Applications for the Subsidy-Abandonment Decision.” Agricultural Economics Report No. 420, E. Lansing: Michigan State University, 1982.Google Scholar
Koo, W. W., Thompson, S. R. and Larson, D. W. An Analysis of Selected Changes in the U.S. Transportation System, 1990, No. Cent. Reg. Res. Bull. (NC-137, forthcoming).Google Scholar
Lazarus, S. S., Hill, L. D. and Thompson, S. R. Grain Production and Consumption for Feed in the North Central and Southern States with Projections for 1985, 1990, 2000, Agr. Exp. Sta. Bull. 763, Univ. of Illinois, 1980.Google Scholar
Leuthold, R. M.“On the Use of Theil's Inequality Coefficients.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 57:344–346, 1975.Google Scholar
Michigan Department of Agriculture. Michigan Agricultural Statistics, Lansing, Michigan: 1978 and 1981.Google Scholar
Miklius, W., Casavant, K. L. and Garrod, P. V. “Estimation of Demand for Transportation of Agricultural Commodities.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 58:217–223, 1976.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oum, T. H.“A Cross Sectional Study of Freight Transport Demand and Rail- Truck Competition in Canada.” The Bell J. of Econ., 10:463–482, 1979.Google Scholar
Roberts, Paul O. “Disaggregate Demand Modelling: Theoretical Tantalizer or Practical Problem Solver.” Center for Transportation Studies Report No. 77-29, Cambridge, Massachusetts: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1977a.Google Scholar
Roberts, Paul O. “Freight Demand Response to Changes in the U.S. Transportation System.” Center for Transportation Studies Report No. 77-28, Cambridge, Massachusetts: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1977b.Google Scholar
Schaffer, W. A., Laurent, E. A. and Sutter, E. M. Using the Georgia Economic Model, Atlanta: Georgia Institute of Technology, 1972.Google Scholar
Stevens, B. H., Kindahl, J., Woelfel, M. and Ehrlich, D.. Basic Regional Input-Output for Transportation Impact Analysis: Handbook One of Regional Economic Analysis for Transportation Planning, Amherst, Massachusetts: Regional Science Research Institute, 1979.Google Scholar
Stevens, B. H., Kindahl, J., Woelfel, M. and Ehrlich, D.. “Introductory Input-Output Methods for the Measurement of Regional Impacts with Emphasis on Transportation Facilities.” Regional Science Research Institute Discussion Paper No. 122, Amherst, Massachusetts: Regional Science Research Institute, 1980.Google Scholar
Terziev, Marc N. “Modeling the Demand for Freight Transportation.” M.S. Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1976.Google Scholar
Theil, H. Applied Economic Forecasting, Chicago: Rand-McNally and Co., 1966.Google Scholar
Transportation Research Board, National Academy of Sciences. “Local Rail Services Program: Perspectives of States and Railroads.” Circular 209, 1979.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. State Government Finances, Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1981-1982.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analyses. Survey of Current Business, Washington, DC. Vol. 59, No. 2, 4, 7, 12, 1979; Vol. 61, No. 7, 10, 11, 12, 1981.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration. Carload Waybill Statistics, 1980.Google Scholar
Vernay, D. I., ed. Michigan Statistical Abstract. Division of Research, Graduate School of Business Administration, Michigan State University, E. Lansing, Michigan: 1979.Google Scholar