Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-g8jcs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T20:15:37.507Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

An Evaluation of Selected Decision Models: A Case of Crop Choice in Northern Thailand

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2015

Gary R. Vieth  and
Pramote Suppapanya
Gary R. Vieth
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Hawaii, Manoa
Pramote Suppapanya
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Hawaii, Manoa
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This research examines the predictability of a profit maximization model, an expected value-variance utility maximization (E-V) model, and two versions of the target-MOTAD model for modeling risky agricultural production decisions. Model solutions were translated into expected value and variance of farm income for analysis. Direct comparison and chi-square analysis of actual and predicted expected income distributions were used in the analyses. It was concluded that the utility maximization and cash-cost target-MOTAD models predicted distributions of farm income better than the variable-cost target-MOTAD and profit maximization models.

Keywords

decision modelsexpected utility maximizationfarm incomeprofit maximizationtarget-MOTAD
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 28 , Issue 2 , December 1996 , pp. 381 - 391
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 1996

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anderson, J.R., Dillon, J.L., and Hardaker, J.B.. Agricultural Decision Analysis. Ames IA: Iowa State University Press, 1977.Google Scholar
Anderson, J.R., and Hamal, K.B.. “Risk and Rice Technology in Nepal.” Indian J. Agr. Econ. 38(1983):217–22.Google Scholar
Barry, P.J., ed. Risk Management in Agriculture. Ames IA: Iowa State University Press, 1984.Google Scholar
Binswanger, H. “Attitudes Toward Risk: Experimental Measurements in Rural India.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 63(1980):395–407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cochran, W.G.Sampling Techniques, 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1963.Google Scholar
Debrah, Z., and Hall, H.H.. “Data Aggregation and Farm Risk Analysis.” Agr. Systems 31(1989):239–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dillon, J.L., and Anderson, J.R.. “Allocative Efficiency, Traditional Agriculture, and Risk.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 53(1971):26–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elton, E.J., and Gruber, M.J.. Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis, 4th ed. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1991.Google Scholar
Fishburn, P.C. “Mean-Risk Analysis with Risk Associated with Below-Target Returns.” Amer. Econ. Rev. 67(1977):116–25.Google Scholar
Francisco, E., and Anderson, J.. “Chance and Choice West of the Darling.” Australian J. Agr. Econ. 16(1972):82–93.Google Scholar
Halter, A.N., and Dean, G.W.. Decisions Under Uncertainty with Research Applications. Cincinnati OH: South-Western Publishing, 1971.Google Scholar
Hazell, P.B.R. “Application of Risk Preference Estimates in Firm-Household and Agricultural Sector Models.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 64(1982):384–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herath, H.M.G.Hardaker, J.B., and Anderson, J.R.. “Choice of Varieties by Sri Lanka Rice Farmers: Comparing Alternative Decision Models.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 64(1982):87–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hopper, W.D. “Allocative Efficiency in a Traditional Indian Agriculture.” J. Farm Econ. 47(1965):611–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kish, L.Survey Sampling. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1965.Google Scholar
Lin, W, Dean, G.W., and Moore, C.V.. “An Empirical Test of Utility vs. Profit Maximization in Agricultural Production.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 56(1974):497–508.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mapp, H.P. Jr., Hardin, M.L., Walker, O.L., and Persaud, T.. “Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Producers.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 61(1979):1071–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Markowitz, H.Portfolio Selection—Efficient Diversification of Investments. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1959.Google Scholar
Mohayidin, M.G.B. “Risk in Decision Making: A Case of Crop Selection in Two Malaysian Districts.” Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1981.Google Scholar
Pathanothai, A. “A Review on a Rainfed Crop Production Research and Development Project.” Department of Agriculture, Bangkok, Thailand, 1983.Google Scholar
Patrick, G.R., Wilson, P.N., Barry, P.J., Bog, W.G.-gess, and Young, D.L.. “Risk Perceptions and Management Responses: Producer-Generated Hypotheses for Risk Modeling.” S. J. Agr. Econ. 17(1985):231–38.Google Scholar
Prevatt, J.W., Bauer, L.L., Kaiser, E.H., and Rathwell, P.J.. “Measuring the Effect of Capital Structure and Seasonality on Expected Returns and Risk: The Fresh Market Vegetable Case.” S. J. Agr. Econ. 24(1992):171–78.Google Scholar
Rawlins, R.B., and Bernardo, D.J.. “Incorporating Uncertainty in the Analysis of Optimal Beef-Forage Production Systems.” S. J. Agr. Econ. 23(1991):213–25.Google Scholar
Robison, L.J. “An Appraisal of Expected Utility Hypothesis Tests Constructed from Responses to Hypothetical Questions and Experimental Choices.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 64(1982):367–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robison, L.J., Barry, P.J., Kliebenstein, J.B., and Patrick, G.F.. “Risk Attitudes: Concepts and Measurement Approaches.” In Risk Management in Agriculture, ed., Barry, P.J., pp. 11–30. Ames IA: Iowa State University Press, 1984.Google Scholar
Robison, L.J., and Brake, J.R.. “Application of Portfolio Theory to Farmer and Lender Behavior.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 61(1979):158–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roumasset, J.A.Rice and Risk: Decision Making Among Low-Income Farmers. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Co., 1976.Google Scholar
Suppapanya, P. “The Evaluation of Alternative Decision Models: A Case of Crop Rotation in Northern Thailand.” Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of Hawaii, 1994.Google Scholar
Tauer, L.W. “Target MOTAD.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 65(1983):606–10.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thailand Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Office of Agricultural Economics. “Agricultural Statistics of Thailand, Crop Year 1990-91.” Center for Agricultural Statistics, Bangkok, Thailand, 1991.Google Scholar
Wolgin, J.M. “Resource Allocation and Risk: A Case Study of Smallholder Agriculture in Kenya.” Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 57(1975):622–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yotopolus, R.A. “On the Efficiency of Resource Utilization in Subsistence Agriculture.” Food Research Institute and Studies 8(1968):125–35.Google Scholar
Young, D.L. “Risk Concepts and Measures for Decision Analysis.” In Risk Management in Agriculture, ed., Barry, P.J., pp. 31–42. Ames IA: Iowa State University Press, 1984.Google Scholar