Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-mkpzs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-22T16:42:23.007Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The effect of electoral autocracy in Egypt's failed transition: a party politics perspective

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 May 2019

Valeria Resta Open the ORCID record for Valeria Resta [Opens in a new window]
Valeria Resta*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

Although the failed democratic transition in Egypt following the Arab Spring is unanimously held as a poster child for the stubbornness of authoritarianism in the MENA region, its determinants remain disputed. Contributing to this debate, this article focuses on the noxious effects of past electoral authoritarianism on the transitional party system. More specifically, through quantitative text analysis, the article demonstrates that transitional parties’ agency is largely the by-product of the way in which political competition was structured under the previous electoral autocracy. On the one hand, the uneven structure of opportunity upholding previous rule is central to the lack of pluralism. On the other hand, the previous regime's practice of playing opposition actors against each other through identity politics is at the root of the absence of common ground among the aforementioned parties during the transition.

Keywords

Authoritarian resiliencedemocratizationEgyptLDApolitical partiestransition
Type
Research Article
Information
Italian Political Science Review / Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica , Volume 49 , Special Issue 2: Autocracy Strikes Back: Authoritarian Resurgence in the Early 21st Century , July 2019 , pp. 157 - 173
Copyright
Copyright © Società Italiana di Scienza Politica 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Al-moslmi, T et al. (2017) Arabic Senti-Lexicon: constructing publicly available language resources for Arabic sentiment analysis. Journal of Information Science 44, 345–362. http://doi.org/10.1177/0165551516683908Google Scholar
Albrecht, H (eds) (2010) Contentious Politics in the Middle East: Political Opposition Under Authoritarianism. Gainesville: University of Florida Press.Google Scholar
Albrecht, H and Bishara, D (2011) Back on horseback: the military and political transformation in Egypt. Middle East Law and Governance 3, 13–23. http://doi.org/10.1163/187633711X591396Google Scholar
Albrecht, H and Wegner, E (2006) Autocrats and Islamists: contenders and containment in Egypt and Morocco. The Journal of North African Studies 11, 123–141. http://doi.org/10.1080/13629380600704688Google Scholar
Allinson, J (2015) Class forces, transition and the Arab uprisings: a comparison of Tunisia, Egypt and Syria. Democratization 22, 294–314. http://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2015.1010812Google Scholar
Bahlul, R (2003) Toward an Islamic conception of democracy: Islam and the notion of public reason. Critique: Critical Middle Eastern Studies 12, 43–60. http://doi.org/10.1080/1066992032000064183Google Scholar
Bermeo, N and Yashar, DJ (eds) (2016) Parties, Movements and Democracy in the Developing World. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Bianchi, R (1989) Unruly Corporativism: Associational Life in Twentieth-Century Egypt. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Blaydes, L and Lo, J (2012) One man, one vote, one time? A model of democratization in the Middle East. Journal of Theoretical Politics 24, 110–146. http://doi.org/10.1177/0951629811423121Google Scholar
Blei, DM, Ng, AY and Jordan, MI (2003) Latent Dirichlet allocation. Journal of Machine Learning Research 3, 993–1022.Google Scholar
Brown, NJ (2012) When Victory Is Not an Option: Islamist Movements in Arab Politics. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Brown, NJ (2013) Egypt's failed transition. Journal of Democracy 24, 45–58. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2013.0064Google Scholar
Brownlee, J (2007) Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brownlee, J, Masoud, T and Reynolds, A (2013) Why the modest harvest?. Journal of Democracy 24, 29–44. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2013.0061Google Scholar
Brownlee, J, Masoud, T and Reynolds, A (2015) The Arab Spring: Pathways of Repression and Reform. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Brumberg, D (2013) Transforming the Arab world's protection-racket politics. Journal of Democracy 24, 88–103. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2013.0042Google Scholar
Capoccia, G and Ziblatt, D (2010) The historical turn in democratization studies: a new research agenda for Europe and beyond. Comparative Political Studies 43, 931–968. http://doi.org/10.1177/0010414010370431Google Scholar
Carey, JM and Reynolds, AS (2016) Institutions as Causes and Effects: North African Electoral Systems During the Arab Spring. Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP 16-042. https://cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/sites.dartmouth.edu/dist/2/109/files/2013/02/CMR-2015-082715-APSA-draft.pdfGoogle Scholar
Cavatorta, F and Merone, F (2013) Moderation through exclusion? The journey of the Tunisian Ennahda from fundamentalist to conservative party. Democratization 20, 857–875. http://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2013.801255Google Scholar
Ceron, A, Curini, L and Iacus, SM (2018) ISIS at its apogee: the Arabic discourse on twitter and what we can learn from that about ISIS support and foreign fighter. Sage Open. Forthcoming.Google Scholar
Cross, E and Sorens, J (2016) Arab spring constitution-making: polarization, exclusion, and constraints. Democratization 23, 1292–1312. http://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2015.1107719Google Scholar
de Miguel, C, Jamal, AA and Tessler, M (2015) Elections in the Arab world. Comparative Political Studies 48, 1355–1388. http://doi.org/10.1177/0010414015574877Google Scholar
Driessen, MD (2014) Religion and Democratization: Framing Religious and Political Identities in Muslim and Catholic Societies. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Elster, J (1995) Forces and mechanisms in the constitution-making process. Duke Law Journal 45, 364–396.Google Scholar
Enyedi, Z (2005) The role of agency in cleavage formation. European Journal of Political Research 44, 697–720. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2005.00244.xGoogle Scholar
Gandhi, J and Lust-Okar, E (2009) Elections Under Authoritarianism. Annual Review of Political Science 12, 403–422Google Scholar
Gunther, R, Diamandouros, N, and Puhle, H (eds) (1995) The Politics of Democratic Consolidation. Southern Europe in Comparative Perspective. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Harmel, R (2018) The how's and why's of party manifestos. Party Politics 24, 229–239. http://doi.org/10.1177/1354068816678880Google Scholar
Harmel, R et al. (2018) Manifestos and the ‘two faces’ of parties. Party Politics 24, 278–288. http://doi.org/10.1177/1354068816648355Google Scholar
Heydemann, S (2007) Upgrading Authoritarianism in the Arab World. The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brooking Institution. Vol. 13. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/10arabworld.pdfGoogle Scholar
Higley, J and Burton, MG (1989) The elite variable in democratic transitions and breakdowns. American Sociological Review 54, 17–32. Available at https://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/handle/2152/10296Google Scholar
Hinnebusch, R (2017) Political parties in MENA: their functions and development. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 44, 159–175. http://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2017.1281577Google Scholar
Kitschelt, H et al. (1999) Post-Communist Party Systems: Competition, Representation and Inter-Party Cooperation. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kraetzschmar, H and Cavatorta, F (2010) Bullets over ballots: Islamist groups, the state and electoral violence in Egypt and Morocco. Democratization 17, 326–349. http://doi.org/10.1080/13510341003588757Google Scholar
Kurzman, C and Türkoğlu, D (2015) After the Arab spring do Muslims vote Islamic now?. Journal of Democracy 26, 100–109. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2015.0073Google Scholar
Lindberg, SI (2009) Democratization by elections? A mixed record. Journal of Democracy 20, 86–92. Available at https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/democratization-elections-mixed-record (Accessed 22 October 2018).Google Scholar
Lust-Okar, E (2005) Structuring Conflict in the Arab World: Incumbents, Opponents, and Institutions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Lust, E and Waldner, D (2016) Parties in transitional democracies. In Bermeo, N and Yashar, DJ (eds), Parties, Movements and Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 157–189.Google Scholar
Masoud, T (2014) Counting Islam: Religion, Class and Elections in Egypt. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Moore, BJ (1965) Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Boston: Beacon.Google Scholar
Morlino, L (1995) Political parties and democratic consolidation in Southern Europe. In Gunther, R, Diamandouros, PN and Puhle, H (eds), The Politics of Democratic Consolidation: Southern Europe in Comparative Perspective. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, pp. 315–388.Google Scholar
Nielsen, R (2013) The Lonely Jihadist: Weak Networks and the Radicalization of Muslim Clerics (PhD dissertation). Harvard University.Google Scholar
O'Donnell, G and Schmitter, PC (1986) Transition from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusion about Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Resta, V (2018) Leftist parties in the Arab region before and after the Arab uprisings: unrequited love? In Cavatorta, F and Storm, L (eds), Political Parties in the Arab World: Continuity and Change. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, pp. 23–48.Google Scholar
Roberts, M et al. (2013) The Structural Topic Model and Applied Social Science. NIPS Workshop on Topic Models. http://mimno.infosci.cornell.edu/nips2013ws/slides/stm.pdf%5Cnhttp://structuraltopicmodel.com/Google Scholar
Sartori, G (1976) Parties and Party Systems. A Framework for Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Schedler, A (ed) (2006) Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition. Boulder and London: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Schwedler, J (2011) Can Islamists become moderates? Rethinking the inclusion-moderation hypothesis. World Politics 63, 347–376. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887111000050Google Scholar
Slapin, JB and Proksch, S (2008) A scaling model for estimating time-series positions from texts. American Journal of Political Science 52, 705–722. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00338.xGoogle Scholar
Stepan, AC (2012) Tunisia's transition and the twin tolerations. Journal of Democracy 23, 89–103. http://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2012.0034Google Scholar
Storm, L (2014) Party Politics and the Prospects for Democracy in North Africa. Boulde, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Szmolka, I (2015) Exclusionary and non-consensual transitions versus inclusive and consensual democratizations: the cases of Egypt and Tunisia. Arab Studies Quarterly 37, 73–95. http://doi.org/10.13169/arabstudquar.37.1.0073Google Scholar
Tepe, S (2013) The perils of polarization and religious parties: the democratic challenges of political fragmentation in Israel and Turkey. Democratization 20, 831–856. http://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2013.801254Google Scholar
Wegner, E and Cavatorta, F (2018) Revisiting the Islamist–Secular divide: parties and voters in the Arab world. International Political Science Review 1–18. http://doi.org/10.1177/0192512118784225Google Scholar
Wickham, CR (2002) Mobilizing Islam: Religion, Activism, and Political Change in Egypt. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar