Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-g8jcs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T16:26:11.007Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

OPINIONE PUBBLICA E COMPETIZIONE PRESIDENZIALE NEGLI STATI UNITI

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 June 2016

Franco Mattei
Get access

Introduzione

Nel corso degli ultimi vent'anni, il processo di selezione dei candidati alla presidenza americana ha prodotto frequenti sorprese politiche ed alcuni vincitori inattesi. Il rapido declino di Muskie e la nomina di McGovern nel 1972, la scelta di Jimmy «Who?» Carter nel 1976, i successi di piò breve periodo di Bush e di Anderson nel 1980, la meteorica ascesa di Hart e le impreviste difficoltá di Mondale nel 1984 sono i casi piò noti offerti dalle recenti campagne elettorali pre-congressuali del partito democratico e repubblicano. L'analisi dei modi e dei tempi con i quali diversi candidati alla Casa Bianca hanno visto mutare radicalmente la propria posizione nella competizione intrapartitica é centrata sulla nozione di momentum; in essa sono state condensate l'instabilitá e l'incertezza ricorrenti nell'attuale sistema di nomina dei candidati alla presidenza.

Type
Ricerche
Information
Italian Political Science Review / Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica , Volume 20 , Issue 1 , April 1990 , pp. 105 - 145
Copyright
Copyright © Società Italiana di Scienza Politica 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Riferimenti bibliografici

Abramowitz, A. (1987), Candidate Choice Before the Convention , in «Political Behavior», IX, pp. 49–61.Google Scholar
Adams, W. (1984), Media Coverage of Campaign 1984: A preliminary Report, in «Public Opinion».Google Scholar
Aldrich, J. (1980a), Before the Convention: Strategies and Choices in Presidential Nominating Campaigns, Chicago, University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aldrich, J. (1980b), A Dynamic model of Presidential Nominating Campaigns , in «American Political Science Review» LXXIV, pp. 651–666.Google Scholar
Aldrich, J. e Nelson, F. (1984), Linear Probability, Logit and Probit Models, Beverly Hills, Sage.Google Scholar
Arterton, C. (1978a), Campaign Organizations Confront the Media-Political Environment , in Barber, J.D (a cura di) Race for the Presidency, Englewood Cliffs, Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Arterton, C. (1978b), The Media Politics of Presidential Campaigns: A Study of the Carter Nomination Drive , in Barber, J.D. (a cura di) Race for the Presidency, Englewood Cliffs, Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Arterton, C. (1984), Media Politics, Lexington, Lexington Books.Google Scholar
Bartels, L. (1985), Expectations and Preferences in Presidential Nominating Campaigns , in «American Political Science Review», LXXIX, pp. 804–815.Google Scholar
Bartels, L. (1987), Candidate Choice and the Dynamic of the Presidential Nominating Process , in «American Journal of Political Science», XXXI, pp. 1–31.Google Scholar
Bartels, L. (1988), Presidential Primaires and the Dynamics of Public Choice, Princeton, Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Brady, H. (1982), Strategy, Recognition, and Expectations in Nomination Campaigns: Micro- and Macro-Analysis of the Dynamics of Presidential Primaries, dattiloscritto, Graduate School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley.Google Scholar
Brady, H. (1983), Knowledge, Strategy, and Momentum in Presidential Primaries, paper presentato alla riunione annuale dell'American Political Science Association, Chicago.Google Scholar
Brady, H. (1985a), Changes, Utilities, and Voting in Presidential Primaries, dattiloscritto, Graduate School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley.Google Scholar
Brady, H. (1985b), Media and Momentum, dattiloscritto, Department of Government, Harvard University.Google Scholar
Brady, H. e Johnston, R. (1987), What's the Primary Message: Horse Race or Issue Journalism? , in Orren, G. e Polsby, N. (a cura di) Media and Momentum, Chatham, Chatham House.Google Scholar
Berelson, B., Lazarsfeld, P. e Goudet, H. (1954), Voting. A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign, Chicago, University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Ceaser, J. (1979), Presidential Selection: Theory and Development, Princeton, Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Ceaser, J. (1982), Reforming the Reforms: A Critical Analysis of the Presidential Selection Process, Cambridge, Ballinger.Google Scholar
Crotty, W. (1978), Decision for the Democrats: Reforming the Party Structure, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Ceaser, J. (1983), Party Reform, New York, Longman.Google Scholar
Crotty, W. e Jackson, J., (1985), Presidential Primaries and Nominations, Washington, Congressional Quarterly Press.Google Scholar
Davis, J. (1980), Presidential Primaries: Road to the White House, New York, Crowell.Google Scholar
Geer, J. (1989), Nominating Presidents, Westwood, Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
Goldstein, M. (1988), Guide to the 1988 Presidential Election, Washington, Congressional Quarterly Press.Google Scholar
Goldwin, R. (a cura di) (1980), Political Parties in the Eighties, Washington, AEI.Google Scholar
Gopoian, D. (1982), Issue Preferences and Candidate Choice in Presidential Primaires , in «American Journal of Political Science», XXVI, pp. 523–546.Google Scholar
Grassmuck, G. (a cura di) (1985), Before Nomination, Washington, AEI.Google Scholar
Greenfield, J. (1982), The Real Campaign: How the Media Missed the Story of the 1980 Campaign, New York, Summit Books.Google Scholar
Hanushek, E. e Jackson, J. (1977), Statistical Methods for Social Scientists, Orlando, Academic Press.Google Scholar
Heard, A. e Nelson, M. (a cura di) (1987), Presidential Selection, Durham, Duke University Press.Google Scholar
Joslyn, R. (1984), Mass Media and Elections, Reading, Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Kamarck, E. (1986), Structure as Strategy: Presidential Nominating Politics Since Reform, Dissertazione di dottorato, Berkeley, University of California.Google Scholar
Keeter, S. e Zukin, C. (1984), Uninformed Choice, New York, Praeger.Google Scholar
Kirkpatrick, J. (1978), Dismantling the Parties: Reflections on Party Reform and Party Decline, Washington, AEI.Google Scholar
Maddala, G. (1983), Limited-dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Marshall, T. (1981), Presidential Nominations in a Reform Age, New York, Praeger.Google Scholar
Marshall, T. (1983), The News Verdict and Public Opinion during the Primaries , in Adams, W. (a cura di) Television Coverage of the 1980 Presidential Campaign, Norwood, Ablex.Google Scholar
Matthews, D. (1978), Winnowing: The News Media and the 1976 Presidential Nominations , in Barber, J. (a cura di) Race for the Presidency, Englewood Cliffs, Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
McGovern, G. e Fraser, D. (1969), Commission on Party Structure and Delegate Selection. Mandate for Reform, Washington, Democratic National Committee.Google Scholar
Moore, J. e Fraser, J. (a cura di) (1977), Campaign for President. The Managers Look at '76, Cambridge, Ballinger.Google Scholar
Nelson, M. (a cura di) (1989), The Elections of 1988, Washington, Congressional Quarterly Press.Google Scholar
Norrander, B. (1986), Correlates of Vote Choice in the 1980 Presidential Primary , in «Journal of Politics», XLVIII, pp. 156–166.Google Scholar
Orren, G. e Polsby, N. (a cura di) (1987), Media and Momentum, Chatham, Chatham House.Google Scholar
Patterson, T. (1980), The Mass Media Election, New York, Praeger.Google Scholar
Polsby, N. (1983), Consequences of Party Reform, Oxford, Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Pomper, G. (a cura di) (1989), The Election of 1988, Chatham, Chatham House.Google Scholar
Ranney, A. (1975), Curing the Mischiefs of Factions: Party Reform in America, Berkeley, University of California Press.Google Scholar
Reiter, H. (1985), Selecting the President, Philadelphia, University of Pennsylvania Press.Google Scholar
Robinson, M. (1980), Media Coverage in the Primary Campaign of 1976: Implications for Voters, Candidates, Parties , in Crotty, W., (a cura di) The Party Symbol, S. Francisco, Freeman.Google Scholar
Robinson, M. e Sheehan, M. (1983), Over the Wire and on TV, New York, Russel Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Shafer, B. (1984), Quiet Revolution: The Struggle for the Democratic Party and the Shaping of Post Reform Politics, New York, Russel Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Shafer, B. (1988), Bifurcated Politics, New York, Russel Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Shanks, M. e Palmquist, B. (1981), Intra-Party Candidate Choice in 1980: An Early Portrait of Pre-Convention Preferences, paper presentato alla riunione annuale della Midwest Political Science Association, Cincinnati.Google Scholar
Shanks, M. Miller, W., Brady, H. e Palmquist, B. (1985), Viability Electability, and Presidential «Preference»: Initial Results from the 1984 NES Continuous Monitoring Design, paper presentato alla riunione annuale della Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago.Google Scholar
Squire, P. (a cura di) (1989), The Iowa Caucuses and the Presidential Nominating Process, Boulder, Westview Press.Google Scholar