Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-q99xh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T02:27:17.311Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Climate Change May Alter Both Establishment and High Abundance of Red Brome (Bromus rubens) and African Mustard (Brassica tournefortii) in the Semiarid Southwest United States

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Caroline A. Curtis  and
Bethany A. Bradley
Caroline A. Curtis*
Affiliation:
Program in Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
Bethany A. Bradley
Affiliation:
Program in Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
*
Corresponding author's E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Nonnative, invasive plants are becoming increasingly widespread and abundant throughout the southwestern United States, leading to altered fire regimes and negative effects on native plant communities. Models of potential invasion are pertinent tools for informing regional management. However, most modeling studies have relied on occurrence data, which predict the potential for nonnative establishment only and can overestimate potential risk. We compiled locations of presence and high abundance for two problematic, invasive plants across the southwestern United States: red brome (Bromus rubens L.) and African mustard (Brassica tournefortii Gouan). Using an ensemble of five climate projections and two types of distribution model (MaxEnt and Bioclim), we modeled current and future climatic suitability for establishment of both species. We also used point locations of abundant infestations to model current and future climatic suitability for abundance (i.e., impact niche) of both species. Because interpretations of future ensemble models depend on the threshold used to delineate climatically suitable from unsuitable areas, we applied a low threshold (1 model of 10) and a high threshold (6 or more models of 10). Using the more-conservative high threshold, suitability for Bromus rubens presence expands by 12%, but high abundance contracts by 42%, whereas suitability for Brassica tournefortii presence and high abundance contract by 34% and 56%, respectively. Based on the low threshold (worst-case scenario), suitability for Bromus rubens presence and high abundance are projected to expand by 65% and 64%, respectively, whereas suitability for Brassica tournefortii presence and high abundance expand by 29% and 28%, respectively. The difference between results obtained from the high and low thresholds is indicative of the variability in climate models for this region but can serve as indicators of best- and worst-case scenarios.

Keywords

Red brome, Bromus rubens L.African mustard, Brassica tournefortii GouanBioclimatic envelope modelingecological nichefire regimeinvasive plants
Type
Research Article
Information
Invasive Plant Science and Management , Volume 8 , Issue 3 , September 2015 , pp. 341 - 352
Copyright
Copyright © Weed Science Society of America 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Literature Cited

Abatzoglou, JT, Kolden, CA (2011) Climate change in western us deserts: potential for increased wildfire and invasive annual grasses. Rangeland Ecol Manag 64:471–478 Google Scholar
Allouche, O, Tsoar, A, Kadmon, R (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). J Appl Ecol 43:1223–1232 Google Scholar
Araújo, MB, New, M (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol Evol 22:42–47 Google Scholar
Araújo, MB, Pearson, RG (2005) Equilibrium of species’ distributions with climate. Ecography 28:693–695 Google Scholar
Balch, JK, Bradley, BA, D’Antonio, CM, Gómez-Dans, J (2013) Introduced annual grass increases regional fire activity across the arid western USA (1980–2009). Glob Change Biol 19:173–183 Google Scholar
Bangle, DN, Walker, LR, Powell, EA (2008) Seed germination of the invasive plant Brassica tournefortii (Sahara mustard) in the Mojave Desert. West N Am Naturalist 68:334–342 Google Scholar
Barrows, CW, Allen, EB, Brooks, ML, Allen, MF (2009) Effects of an invasive plant on a desert sand dune landscape. Biol Invasions 11:673–686 Google Scholar
Beatley, JC (1966) Ecological status of introduced brome grasses (Bromus spp.) in desert vegetation of southern Nevada. Ecology 47:548–554 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beatley, JC (1974) Phenological events and their environmental triggers in Mojave Desert ecosystems. Ecology 55:856–863 Google Scholar
Bradley, BA (2013) Distribution models of invasive plants over-estimate potential impact. Biol Invasions 15:1417–1429 Google Scholar
Bradley, BA, Wilcove, DS, Oppenheimer, M (2010) Climate change increases risk of plant invasion in the Eastern United States. Biol Invasions 12:1855–1872 Google Scholar
Brooks, ML (1999) Alien annual grasses and fire in the Mojave Desert. Madroño 46:13–19 Google Scholar
Brooks, ML (2000) Competition between alien annual grasses and native annual plants in the Mojave Desert. Am Midl Nat 144:92–108 Google Scholar
Brooks, ML, D’Antonio, CM, Richardson, DM, Grace, JB, Keeley, JE, DiTomaso, JM, Hobbs, RJ, Pellant, M, Pyke, D (2004) Effects of invasive alien plants on fire regimes. Bioscience 54:677–688 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brooks, ML, Pyke, DA (2001) Invasive plants and fire in the deserts of North America. Pages 1–14 in Galley, KEM, Wilson, TP, eds. Proceedings of the Invasive Species Workshop: The Role of Fire in the Spread and Control of Invasive Species. Fire Conference 2000: The First National Congress on Fire Ecology, Prevention, and Management. Tallahassee, FL Tall Timbers Research Station Misc Pub 11Google Scholar
Brown, JH (1995) Macroecology. Chicago University of Chicago Press Google Scholar
Busby, JR (1991) BIOCLIM—a bioclimate analysis and prediction system. Plant Prot Q 6:8–9 Google Scholar
Bykova, O, Sage, RF (2012) Winter cold tolerance and the geographic range separation of Bromus tectorum and Bromus rubens, two severe invasive species in North America. Glob Change Biol 18:3654–3663 Google Scholar
D’Antonio, CM, Vitousek, PM (1992) Biological invasions by exotic grasses, the grass/fire cycle, and global change. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 23:63–87 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dukes, JS, Mooney, HA (1999) Does global change increase the success of biological invaders? Trends Ecol Evol 14:135–139 Google Scholar
Ehrenfeld, JG (2003) Effects of exotic plant invasions on soil nutrient cycling processes. Ecosystems 6:503–523 Google Scholar
Estes, LD, Bradley, BA, Beukes, H, Hole, DG, Lau, M, Oppenheimer, MG, Schulze, R, Tadross, MA, Turner, WR (2013) Comparing mechanistic and empirical model projections of crop suitability and productivity: implications for ecological forecasting. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 22:1007–1018 Google Scholar
Fielding, AH, Bell, JF (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ Conserv 24:38–49 Google Scholar
Franklin, J (2009) Mapping Species Distributions: Spatial Inference and Prediction. New York Cambridge University Press Google Scholar
Hijmans, RJ, Cameron, SE, Parra, JL, Jones, PG, Jarvis, A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965–1978 Google Scholar
Kramer-Schadt, S, Niedballa, J, Pilgrim, JD, Schröder, B, Lindenborn, J, Reinfelder, V, Stillfried, M, Heckmann, I, Scharf, AK, Augeri, DM, Cheyne, SM, Hearn, AJ, Ross, J, Macdonald, DW, Mathai, J, Eaton, J, Marshall, AJ, Semiadi, G, Rustam, R, Bernard, H, Alfred, R, Samejima, H, Duckworth, JW, Breitenmoser-Wuersten, C, Belant, JL, Hofer, H, Wilting, A (2013) The importance of correcting for sampling bias in MaxEnt species distribution models. Divers Distrib 19:1366–1379 Google Scholar
Leibold, MA (1995) The Niche concept revisited: mechanistic models and community context. Ecology 76:1371–1382 Google Scholar
Lockwood, JL, Hoopes, MF, Marchetti, MP (2013) Invasion Ecology. West Sussex, UK Wiley-Blackwell Google Scholar
Mack, RN, Simberloff, D, Lonsdale, WM, Evans, H, Clout, M, Bazzaz, FA (2000) Biotic invasions: causes, epidemiology, global consequences, and control. Ecol Appl 10:689–710 Google Scholar
McDonald, A, Riha, S, DiTommaso, A, DeGaetano, A (2009) Climate change and the geography of weed damage: analysis of U.S. maize systems suggests the potential for significant range transformations. Agric Ecosyst Environ 130:131–140 Google Scholar
Minnich, R, Sanders, A (2000) Brassica tournefortii Gouan. Pages 68–72 in Bossard, C, Hoshovsky, M, Randall, J, eds. Invasive Plants of California's Wildlands. Berkeley, CA University of California Press Google Scholar
Nakicenovic, N, Swart, R (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge, England Cambridge University Press Google Scholar
Parker, IM, Simberloff, D, Lonsdale, WM, Goodell, K, Wonham, M, Kareiva, PM, Williamson, MH, Holle, BV, Moyle, PB, Byers, JE, Goldwasser, L (1999) Impact: toward a framework for understanding the ecological effects of invaders. Biol Invasions 1:3–19 Google Scholar
Pearson, RG, Dawson, TP (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Glob Ecol Biogeogr 12:361–371 Google Scholar
Pearson, RG, Thuiller, W, Araújo, MB, Martinez-Meyer, E, Brotons, L, McClean, C, Miles, L, Segurado, P, Dawson, TP, Lees, DC (2006) Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction. J Biogeogr 33:1704–1711 Google Scholar
Peters, JA, Lodge, DM (2013) Habitat, predation, and coexistence between invasive and native crayfishes: prioritizing lakes for invasion prevention. Biol Invasions 15:2489–2502 Google Scholar
Phillips, SJ, Anderson, RP, Schapire, RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Model 190:231–259 Google Scholar
Richardson, DM, Pyšek, P, Rejmánek, M, Barbour, MG, Panetta, FD, West, CJ (2000) Naturalization and invasion of alien plants: concepts and definitions. Divers Distrib, 6:93–107 Google Scholar
Rouget, M, Richardson, DM, Nel, JL, Wilgen, BWV (2002) Commercially important trees as invasive aliens—towards spatially explicit risk assessment at a national scale. Biol Invasions 4:397–412 Google Scholar
Rupp, DE, Abatzoglou, JT, Hegewisch, KC, Mote, PW (2013) Evaluation of CMIP5 20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:10884–10906 Google Scholar
Salo, LF (2004) Population dynamics of red brome (Bromus madritensis subsp. rubens): times for concern, opportunities for management. J Arid Environ 57:291–296 Google Scholar
Salo, LF (2005) Red brome (Bromus rubens subsp. madritensis) in North America: possible modes for early introductions, subsequent spread. Biol Invasions 7:165–180 Google Scholar
Stocker, TF, Qin, D, Plattner, GK, Tignor, M, Allen, SK, Boschung, J, Nauels, A, Xia, Y, Bex, V, Midgley, PM (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). New York Cambridge University Press Google Scholar
Suazo, AA, Spencer, JE, Engel, EC, Abella, SR (2012) Responses of native and non-native Mojave Desert winter annuals to soil disturbance and water additions. Biol Invasions 14:215–227 Google Scholar
Thuiller, W (2003) BIOMOD—optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Glob Change Biol 9:1353–1362 Google Scholar
VanDerWal, J, Shoo, LP, Graham, C, Williams, SE (2009) Selecting pseudo-absence data for presence-only distribution modeling: how far should you stray from what you know? Ecol Model 220:589–594 Google Scholar
Vitousek, PM, D’Antonio, CM, Loope, LL, Westbrooks, R (1996) Biological invasions as global environmental change. Am Sci 84:468–478 Google Scholar