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Incorporating rainy season and reproductive phenology into the survival and transition rates of the invasive species Sambucus nigra: an approximation with multistate models

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 December 2021

Leticia Bonilla-Valencia Open the ORCID record for Leticia Bonilla-Valencia [Opens in a new window] ,
Mariana Hernández-Apolinar Open the ORCID record for Mariana Hernández-Apolinar [Opens in a new window] ,
J. Jaime Zúñiga-Vega Open the ORCID record for J. Jaime Zúñiga-Vega [Opens in a new window] ,
Francisco J. Espinosa-García Open the ORCID record for Francisco J. Espinosa-García [Opens in a new window] ,
Yuriana Martínez-Orea Open the ORCID record for Yuriana Martínez-Orea [Opens in a new window]  and
Silvia Castillo-Argüero Open the ORCID record for Silvia Castillo-Argüero [Opens in a new window]
Leticia Bonilla-Valencia
Affiliation:
PhD Student, Departamento DE Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad DE México, Mexico
Mariana Hernández-Apolinar
Affiliation:
Professor, Departamento DE Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad DE México, Mexico
J. Jaime Zúñiga-Vega
Affiliation:
Professor, Departamento DE Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad DE México, Mexico
Francisco J. Espinosa-García
Affiliation:
Professor, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Michoacán, Mexico
Yuriana Martínez-Orea
Affiliation:
Professor, Departamento DE Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad DE México, Mexico
Silvia Castillo-Argüero*
Affiliation:
Professor, Departamento DE Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad DE México, Mexico
*
Author for correspondence: Silvia Castillo-Argüero, Departamento DE Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, C.P. 04510, Ciudad DE México, México. (Email: [email protected])
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Abstract

Although it has been demonstrated that environmental changes within a year can affect the reproduction, survival, and growth of invasive species, these factors have rarely been incorporated into demographic analyses. Therefore, we applied multistate demographic models (based on capture–recapture animal methods accounting for imperfect detectability of individuals in natural conditions) to evaluate the effects of reproductive phenology and rainy season on the survival and transition/retrogression rates among stage categories of black elderberry (Sambucus nigra L.)—an invasive tree species widely distributed in temperate forests of Europe and America. In the Abies religiosa temperate forest, Mexico City, a multistate demographic model of S. nigra was built using bimonthly censuses during a year. We selected the best-fitting model according to Akaike’s information criterion adjusted for small sample sizes (AICc). We determined the response of reproductive phenology of S. nigra to the rainy season for 2 yr through repeatability and phenotypic plasticity indexes. Our results showed that the reproductive phenology of S. nigra has a low repeatability index and a high phenotypic plasticity index. We demonstrated that additive and interactive effects of reproductive phenology and rainy season promote changes in survival and transition/retrogression rates among stage categories. During the rainy season, the survival probability of seedlings and transition probability toward the adult category increased. Therefore, our study represents a significant contribution to the knowledge of the demographic dynamics of invasive species on an intra-annual scale.

Keywords

Phenotypic plasticityreproductive phenologysurvival ratetemperate foresttransition rate
Type
Research Article
Information
Invasive Plant Science and Management , Volume 15 , Issue 1 , March 2022 , pp. 16 - 24
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Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Weed Science Society of America

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Footnotes

Associate Editor: Songlin Fei, Purdue University

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