Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T07:02:52.528Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Bargaining over power: when do shifts in power lead to war?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 June 2011

Thomas Chadefaux
Thomas Chadefaux*
Affiliation:
Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
*
E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Students of international relations have long argued that large and rapid shifts in relative power can lead to war. But then why does the rising state not alleviate the concerns of the declining one by reducing its expected future power, so that a commitment problem never emerges? For example, states often limit their ability to launch preemptive attacks by creating demilitarized zones, or they abandon armament programs to avoid preventive wars. In a model of complete information, I show that shifts in power never lead to war when countries can negotiate over the determinants of their power. If war occurs, then, it must be that negotiations over power are impossible or too costly. I then show how third parties, domestic politics, and problems of fungibility can increase the costs of such negotiations, and hence lead to war, even under complete information.

Keywords

conflictcauses of warbargainingpowerwarpower shifts
Type
Original Papers
Information
International Theory , Volume 3 , Issue 2 , 20 June 2011 , pp. 228 - 253
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acemoglu, Daron, Robinson, James. 2000. “Why Did the West Extend the Franchise? Democracy, Inequality and Growth in Historical Perspective.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 115(4):1167–1199.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Biddle, Stephen. 2004. Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bijian, Zheng. 2005. “China's ‘Peaceful Rise’ to Great-Power Status.” Foreign Affairs 84(5):18–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buell, Raymond. 1922. The Washington Conference, New York, NY: Appleton and Company.Google Scholar
Coutau-Bégarie, Hervé. 1995. Le Désarmement Naval. Paris: Economica.Google Scholar
DiCicco, Jonathan M., Levy, Jack S.. 1999. “Power Shifts and Problem Shifts: The Evolution of the Power Transition Research Program.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 43(6):675–704.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49(3):379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James. 1996. “Bargaining Over Objects that Influence Future Bargaining Power.” Annual meeting of the APSA, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Ferguson, Niall. 1999. The Pity of War: Explaining World War I, London: Penguin Books.Google Scholar
Ferguson, Niall. 2006. The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West, London: Penguin Books.Google Scholar
Fuerst, Philipp. 2009. “Preventing Preventive Wars with Signals of Reassurance.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL.Google Scholar
Gilpin, Robert. 1981. War and Change in World Politics, Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goddard, Stacie E. 2006. “Uncommon Ground: Indivisible Territory and the Politics of Legitimacy.” International Organization 60(1):35–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haggard, S., Kaufman, R.R.. 1995. The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Hartzell, Caroline A. 1999. “Explaining the Stability of Negotiated Settlements to Intrastate Wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 43(1):3–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoddie, Matthew, Hartzell, Caroline. 2003. “Civil War Settlements and the Implementation of Military Power-Sharing Arrangements.” Journal of Peace Research 40(3): 303–320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoge, James F. 2004. “A Global Power Shift in the Making.” Foreign Affairs 83(4):2–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Joll, James. 1992. The Origins of the First World War, London: Longman.Google Scholar
Kaplan, Herbert. 1962. The First Partition of Poland. New York, NY: Columbia University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, Woosang. 1992. “Power Transitions and Great Power War from Westphalia to Waterloo.” World Politics 45(1):153–172.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kydd, Andrew. 2005. Trust and Mistrust in International Relations, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kydland, Finn E., Prescott, Edward C.. 1977. “Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans.” Journal of Political Economy 85(3):473–492.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lamb, Christopher. 1988. How to Think About Arms Control, Disarmament, and Defense, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Mansfield, E.D., Milner, H.V., Rosendorff, B.P.. 2002. “Why Democracies Cooperate More: Electoral Control and International Trade Agreements.” International Organization 56(03):477–513.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Masson, Philippe. 1981. Histoire de la Marine – Tome I: L’ère de la voile, Paris: Charles Lavauzelle.Google Scholar
Maurer, J.H. 1992. “The Anglo-German Naval Rivalry and Informal Arms Control, 1912–1914.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36(2):284.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKercher, B.J.C. 1990. Anglo-American Relations in the 920's: The Struggle for Supremacy, Edmonton, AB: University of Alberta Press.Google Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 2006. “China's Unpeaceful Rise.” Current History 105(690):160.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, James D., Kim, Woosang. 1992. “When Do Power Shifts Lead to War?” American Journal of Political Science 36(4):896–922.Google Scholar
North, Douglass C., Weingast, Barry R.. 1989. “Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth-Century England.” Journal of Economic History 49(4):803–832.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Organski, Abramo F.K. 1958. World Politics, New York, NY: Alfred A. Knopf.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1999. In the Shadow of Power: States and Strategies in International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2004. “The Inefficient Use of Power.” American Political Science Review 98(2):231–241.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2006. “War as a Commitment Problem.” International Organization 60(1):169–203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reiter, Dan. 1995. “Exploding the Powder Keg Myth: Preemptive Wars Almost Never Happen.” International Security 20(2):5–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reiter, Dan. 2009. How Wars End. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosecrance, R.N. 2000. The Rise of the Virtual State: Wealth and Power in the Coming Century, New york, NY: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Roskill, Stephen. 1968. Naval Policy Between the Wars: Vol. I – The Period of Anglo-American Antagonism, 1919–1929, London: Collins.Google Scholar
Roskill, Stephen. 1976. Naval Policy Between the Wars: Vol. II – The Period of Reluctant Rearmament, 1930–1939, London: Collins.Google Scholar
Russett, B. 1990. Economic Decline, Electoral Pressure, and the Initiation of Interstate Conflict. In Prisoners of War? Nation States in the Modern Era, edited by Charles S. Gochman and Alan Ned Sabrosky, 123–140, Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath and Co.Google Scholar
Seymour, Charles. 1926. The Intimate Papers of Colonel House. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair,, Stam, Allan. 2001. “Issues, Stakes and the Nature of War.” Annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA.Google Scholar
Stoessinger, John G. 2001. Why Nations Go to War, 8th ed.New York, NY: St. Martin's Press.Google Scholar
Taylor, Allan J.P. 1954. The Struggle for Mastery in Europe, 1848–1918. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Thucydides. 1984. The Peloponnesian War, New York, NY: Penguin.Google Scholar
Toft, Monica. 2003. “Indivisible Territory, Geographic Concentration, and Ethnic War.” Security Studies 12(2):82–119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tuchman, Barbara. 1994. The Guns of August, New York, NY: Ballantine Books.Google Scholar
Vagts, Alfred. 1956. Defense and Diplomacy: The Soldier and the Conduct of Foreign Relations, New York, NY: Kings Crown.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Evera, Stephen. 1999. Causes of War, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Wagner, Robert Harrison. 2007. War and the State: the Theory of International Politics. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, MI.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara. 2000. “Explaining the Apparent Indivisibility of Territory.” Paper presented at the American Political Science Association Annual Conference, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Walter, Barbara. 2002. Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolford, Scott. 2007. “The Turnover Trap: New Leaders, Reputation, and International Conflict.” American Journal of Political Science 51(4):772–788.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolford, Scott, Reiter, Dan, Carrubba, C.. 2011. “Information, Commitment, and War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution (Forthcoming).CrossRefGoogle Scholar