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A general model for tsetse populations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 September 2011

David J. Rogers
David J. Rogers
Affiliation:
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Rd., Oxford OX1 3PS, England
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Abstract

The development of simple models for describing the population dynamics of species with overlapping generations is briefly described. The paper then presents a minimally complex simulation model for tsetse populations in which seasonally varying density-independent mortality, generally applied only to the adult stage, is combined with density dependence acting on both puparia and adults. Density dependence regulates population size within limits determined by an interaction between the strength of the density-dependent relationships and the variability of the seasonal density independence. Population data sets for Glossina palpalis and G. morsitans in Nigeria, and G. pallidipes in Kenya are adequately described by the model. Relationships discovered between the density-independent mortality and climatic variables for the Lambwe Valley data set allow predictions of population changes in other sites on the basis of their climatic conditions. Attempts to predict changes in the population of G.pallidipes in Somalia highlight the difficulties of this exercise. A tsetse's demographic response to climate may vary from region to region, making extensive predictions from local data sets difficult. There seems, however, no need to make more complex models to describe observed changes in tsetse populations.

Résumé

On a brieèvement élaboré des modèles simples permettant de décrire la dynamique de la population des espèces avec des générations débordantes. Ensuite le mémoire présente un modèle complexe de simulation pour les populations de tsé-tsé dans lequel la mortalité independante de la densité saisonnière variable, généralement appliquée au stade adulte, est combiné avec la dépendance de densité agissant en même temps sur les larves et sur les adultes. La dépendance de densité règie le volume de la population au sein des limites déterminées parune interaction entre la force des relations de la densité dépendante et la variabilité del'indépendance de la densité saisonnière. Les séries des donnés sur la population de Glossina palpalis et de G. morsitans au Nigéria et celles de G. pallidipes au Kenya sont décrites de façqon adéquate par le modèle. Les relations découvertes entre la mortalité indépendante de la densité et des variables climatiques pour la série des données de la Vallée de Lambwe, permet la suputation sur les changements dans d'autres sites sur base de leurs conditions climatiques. Les essais tendant aè prédire les changements aus sein de la population de G. pallidipes en Somalie, révèlent les difficultés auxquelle se heurte cet exercise. La réaction demographique des tsé-tsé au climat peut varier d'une region a'autre, rendant ainsi 1'élaboration des prévisions aè partir des données locales difficile. II semble, cependant, qu'il n'y a pas besoin d'élaborer des modèles plus complexes pour décrire les changements observés dans les populations des mouches tsé-tsé.

Keywords

TsetseGlossina spp.population modelsdensity dependence
Type
Research Article
Information
International Journal of Tropical Insect Science , Volume 11 , Issue 3 , June 1990 , pp. 331 - 346
Copyright
Copyright © ICIPE 1990

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References

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