The Evelina London Children's Hospital (ELCH) is undergoing a period of growth, including a new building planned to be completed within the next five years. Due to limited space and ambitions to be a state-of-the-art hospital, Horizon Scanning (HS) was considered important to ‘future-proof’ new facilities. As the aim of HS is to identify signals of coming change, ‘scanning’ the previous five years’ trends may be beneficial to an iterative HS methodology. Thus, it was thought that capital bids could provide a range of useful information required to make procurement decisions.

King's Technology Evaluation Centre (KiTEC) provided hospital-based HTA and HS support for the expansion of a London-based paediatric hospital. KiTEC focused on imaging technology due to its large spatial requirements and high-costs and assessed all capital bids made over the previous five years. A capital bidding system is used within GSTT to allocate funding for medical equipment that costs more than GBP5000 (USD 6540.70). Information was collated for all imaging equipment bid for over the previous five years and assessed for trends in imaging modalities and purchase costs.

A total of 135 bids were made in the period 2013-2018, eight of which were by ECLH. Bids for ultrasound equipment were most common and rose over the period. Bids for CT scanners also rose, while bids for MRI scanners and x-ray technology were consistent and bids for fluoroscopy fell. The total cost of imaging bids over the interval rose steadily from GBP5.4 million to GBP6.9 million.

Due to the lifespan of imaging technology, some trends may not emerge within a five year window. While some interesting findings were made, a ten to fifteen year period may require to be scanned for a robust analysis. This methodology is best applied in an iterative fashion along with standard HS techniques.