Several targeted immune modulators (TIMs) have demonstrated effectiveness in moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis, including adalimumab, golimumab, infliximab, infliximab biosimilars, tofacitinib, ustekinumab, and vedolizumab. In addition to assessing individual TIMs, evaluating TIM sequences can inform clinical care as well as coverage and reimbursement policies. Our objective was to identify optimal treatment sequences based on maximum net health benefit (NHB), lowest total cost (cost minimizing), quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) maximization, or convenience (avoidance of intravenous treatments), and to evaluate their cost effectiveness compared with conventional treatment from the health sector perspective.

We developed a Markov model with eight-week cycles and a lifetime time horizon. The health states were active, clinical response without remission, remission, and death. TIM efficacy was informed by a network meta-analysis conducted by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review. Sequences were generated by ranking TIMs and then conventional treatment according to NHB, cost minimization, QALY maximization, or convenience and combining top ranked TIMs in the biologic naïve and biologic experienced populations. NHB was calculated at USD 150,000 per QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was undertaken to estimate the probability of each sequence having the highest NHB rank, QALY maximizing rank, and cost-minimizing rank.

Twenty-one sequences were evaluated. The sequence with the highest NHB was infliximab followed by tofacitinib (-0.12 QALYs), which also had the lowest incremental costs (USD37,266). For orally and subcutaneously administered TIMs, the sequence of golimumab-tofacitinib had the highest NHB (-0.34 QALYs). Ustekinumab-vedolizumab was not only the top ranked sequence as measured by QALY maximization (0.172 incremental QALYs), but it also had the highest total incremental cost (USD166,094). Results of the PSA were consistent with deterministic rankings for the top-ranking sequences and showed that the top two or three regimens were close in magnitude.

The optimal sequence with regard to NHB and cost minimization was infliximab or biosimilars, followed by tofacitinib, adalimumab, or vedolizumab. Sequences that generated the most QALYs began with ustekinumab, followed by vedolizumab, tofacitinib, and adalimumab.