The National Institute for Health and Care Research Innovation Observatory (IO) is a horizon scanning centre based at Newcastle University, United Kingdom. The IO provides horizon scanning intelligence on new and innovative medicinal products to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) as technology briefing notifications (TBNs). We present an analysis of how TBNs produced between April 2017 and October 2021 feed into the NICE HTA process and used to inform their Technology Appraisal (TA) programme.

TBNs were mapped to relevant published NICE TA guidance and time from horizon scanning identification to NICE recommendation was studied. For mapping technologies undergoing appraisal, provisional guidance-in-development (GID) identification numbers (IDs) were used. For technologies that had not reached the NICE scoping stage yet, the NICE Topic Selection decision and ID was used.

Six hundred and ninety-three TBNs were submitted to NICE between April 2017 and October 2021; 653 were prioritised for TA. Of those, eleven percent mapped to a published NICE TA guidance; forty-three percent to a GID, twenty-two percent were undergoing consultation, and three percent were not traced. Further twenty-one percent mapped to a suspended or terminated TA. Reasons for this included HTA timeliness, regulatory issues or companies unwilling to submit evidence to NICE. Time from technology identification to TA guidance publication ranged from twenty-two to 115 months. The average time from TBN submission to NICE recommendation was thirty months.

Timely notification is key in achieving TA recommendation aligned with market authorization but not the only influencing factor. After issuing a TBN, the NICE appraisal process might be terminated, suspended or withdrawn due to unforeseen factors. Horizon scanning plays a key role triggering the NICE TA process; understanding factors that influence the successful TA completion would streamline processes and find efficiencies.