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An Analysis of the Error Between Forecast and Actual Expenditure in the Budgetary System of Iraq, 1961–1980

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 January 2009

Nicholas Perdikis  and
Hassan Saluom
Nicholas Perdikis
Affiliation:
Department of Economics University College of Wales, Aberystwyth
Hassan Saluom
Affiliation:
Department of Economics University College of Wales, Aberystwyth
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Extract

The aim of this study is to examine the way in which the Iraqi government prepares its expenditure estimates and how and why they tend to differ from the actual outturn figures. One hardly expects to see an exact matching of these two figures given the difficulties in estimation which especially exist in developing countries where data bases may be less than exact and techniques crude. In Iraq this error in estimation was first alluded to by Saadi, and it was tentatively suggested that the expectation of discrepancies should be taken into account in the planning process. Others have suggested that this and other poor estimates should be examined and followed up more closely. However, its continuation and growth have not been otherwise studied.

Type
Articles
Information
International Journal of Middle East Studies , Volume 19 , Issue 2 , May 1987 , pp. 131 - 153
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1987

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References

NOTES

1 Saadi, I., “Comprehensive Reform of the Financial System and Financial Administration in Iraq,” Al Malia, 2 (08, 1978), 28–40.Google Scholar

2 El-Haseeb, K. D., “Plan Implementation in Iraq 1961–67,” in Studies on Selected Development Problems in Various Countries in the Middle East (New York, 1969), pp. 1–18.Google Scholar

3 Hashim, J., Omar, H., Al-Manufi, A., An Evaluation of Economic Growth in Iraq (Baghdad, 1971), pp. 17–32,Google Scholar and Haseeb, op. cit., pp. 1–18.

4 Hashim, J., Capital Formation in Iraq 1940–1970 (Baghdad, 1971), pp. 34–45.Google Scholar

5 See the Memorandum of the National Development Plan 1970–1974. (Baghdad: Ministry of Planning, 1970).

6 General Framework of the Second National Development Plan, 1976–1980 (Baghdad: Ministry of Planning, 1976).

7 Al-Samari, S. A., The Public Sector in Iraq (Baghdad, 1971), pp. 19–28.Google Scholar Also “Planning the Foreign Trade Sector,” in Studies on Development Problems in Selected Countries of the Middle East (New York, 1972), pp. 12–41.

8 Law No. 134, 1974.

9 Hansen, F. S., Inflationary Resources in Iraq (Baghdad: Ministry of Education, 1978), pp. 27–35.Google Scholar

10 Saadi, “Comprehensive Reform.”

11 Ibid.

12 Al-Saigh, E. R., “Development Procedures of the Iraq Budget Implicit in the Development Procedures of Fiscal Planning,” Al Malia, 3 (1977), 12–14.Google Scholar

13 Various instructions issued by the Ministry of Finance, Director General of the Budget (Baghdad).

14 Saadi, “Comprehensive Reform.”

15 Revolutionary Command Council Decision Nos. 377 and 380 (Baghdad), 1972).

16 Hameed, K., “Manpower and Employment Planning in Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic,” in Studies on Development Problems in Countries of Western Asia (New York, 1975), pp. 22–44.Google Scholar

17 Hansen F. S., Inflationary Resources in Iraq, pp. 35–42.

18 Political Report of the Ninth Regional Congress of the Arab Baath Socialist Party (Baghdad), January 1983, pp. 135–42.

19 Ibid.

20 Hameed, pp. 22–44.

21 Ibid.

22 Article 5 of the Public Accounts Act, 1940.

23 Justin, C. and Walker, O., Public Expenditure 1977–78: Out- Turn Compared with Plan, U.K. Treasury working paper No. 11, 07 1979.Google Scholar

24 Collins, E. A., “Inflation and Public Expenditure,” Public Administration, 46 (1968), 393–410.Google Scholar

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27 Political Report of the Ninth Regional Congress, pp. 135–42.

28 Foreign Trade Statistics, various issues Baghdad, 1960–1980.