Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-24T00:13:45.109Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Monte Carlo estimation of the probability of causal contacts between communicating civilizations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 August 2020

M. Lares Open the ORCID record for M. Lares [Opens in a new window] ,
J. G. Funes  and
L. Gramajo Open the ORCID record for L. Gramajo [Opens in a new window]
M. Lares*
Affiliation:
CONICET, Buenos Aires, CABA, Argentina Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Observatorio Astronómico de Córdoba, Cordoba, Córdoba, Argentina
J. G. Funes
Affiliation:
CONICET, Buenos Aires, CABA, Argentina Universidad Católica de Córdoba, Cordoba, Córdoba, Argentina
L. Gramajo
Affiliation:
CONICET, Buenos Aires, CABA, Argentina Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Observatorio Astronómico de Córdoba, Cordoba, Córdoba, Argentina
*
Author for correspondence: M. Lares, E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilizations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refer somehow to intelligent agents with the capacity of receiving and emitting electromagnetic signals. Here we present a three-parametric statistical Monte Carlo model of the network in a simplified sketch of the Galaxy. Our goal, using Monte Carlo simulations, is to explore the parameter space and analyse the probabilities of causal contacts. We find that the odds to make a contact over decades of monitoring are low for most models, except for those of a galaxy densely populated with long-standing civilizations. We also find that the probability of causal contacts increases with the lifetime of civilizations more significantly than with the number of active civilizations. We show that the maximum probability of making a contact occurs when a civilization discovers the required communication technology.

Keywords

Computer simulationsSETIstatistics
Type
Research Article
Information
International Journal of Astrobiology , Volume 19 , Issue 5 , October 2020 , pp. 393 - 405
Check for updates
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adamic, LA (2000) Zipf, Power-laws, and Pareto – a ranking tutorial. Information Dynamics Lab, HP Labs. Available at https://www.hpl.hp.com/research/idl/papers/ranking/ranking.html.Google Scholar
Allen, A and Schmidt, J (2015) Looking before leaping: creating a software registry. Journal of Open Research Software 3, E15.Google Scholar
Allen, A, Berriman, GB, DuPrie, K, Mink, J, Nemiroff, R, Schmidt, J, Shamir, L, Shortridge, K, Taylor, MB and Teuben, P (2020) The astrophysics source code library: what's New, what's coming. In Ballester, P, Ibsen, J, Solar, M and Shortridge, K (eds), Astronomical Data Analysis Software and Systems XXVII, Volume 522 of Astronomical Society of the Pacific Conference Series, p. 731.Google Scholar
Anchordoqui, LA and Weber, SM (2019) Upper limit on the fraction of alien civilizations that develop communication technology. International Journal of High School Research (accepted), arXiv e-prints, 1908.01335.Google Scholar
Anchordoqui, LA, Weber, SM and Fernandez Soriano, J (2017) Is there anybody out there? 35th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC2017) 254.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Annis, J (1999) An astrophysical explanation for the ‘GREAT SILENCE’. Journal of the British Interplanetary Society 52, 19–22.Google Scholar
Armstrong, S and Sandberg, A (2013) Eternity in six hours: intergalactic spreading of intelligent life and sharpening the Fermi paradox. Acta Astronautica 89, 1–13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Balbi, A (2018 a) The impact of the temporal distribution of communicating civilizations on their detectability. Astrobiology 18, 54–58.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Balbi, A (2018 b) The spatiotemporal aspects of SETI. Memorie Della Societa Astronomdca Italiana 89, 425.Google Scholar
Barabási, AL (2009) Scale-free networks: a decade and beyond. Science 325, 412–413.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Barlow, MT (2013) Galactic exploration by directed self-replicating probes, and its implications for the Fermi paradox. International Journal of Astrobiology 12, 63–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bloetscher, F (2019) Using predictive Bayesian Monte Carlo- Markov Chain methods to provide a probabilistic solution for the Drake equation. Acta Astronautica 155, 118–130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Borra, EF (2012) Searching for extraterrestrial intelligence signals in astronomical spectra, including existing data. Astronomical Journal 144, 181.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brin, G (1983) The great silence: the controversy concerning extraterrestrial intelligent life. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 24, 283–309.Google Scholar
Burchell, MJ (2006) W(h)ither the drake equation?. International Journal of Astrobiology 5, 243–250.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carroll-Nellenback, J, Frank, A, Wright, J and Scharf, C (2019) The Fermi paradox and the aurora effect: exo-civilization settlement, expansion, and steady states. The Astronomical Journal 158, 117CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chung, CA (2003) Simulation Modeling Handbook: A Practical Approach (Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering Series). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ćirković, MM (2004) The temporal aspect of the drake equation and SETI. Astrobiology 4, 225–231.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dayal, P, Ward, M and Cockell, C (2016) The habitability of the Universe through 13 billion years of cosmic time. arXiv e-prints, 1606.09224.Google Scholar
Došović, V, Vukotić, B and Ćirković, MM (2019) Advanced aspects of Galactic habitability. Astronomy & Astrophysics 625, A98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Drake, FD (1962) Intelligent life in space, Macmillan.Google Scholar
Edmondson, WH and Stevens, IR (2003) The utilization of pulsars as SETI beacons. International Journal of Astrobiology 2, 231–271.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enriquez, JE, Siemion, A, Foster, G, Gajjar, V, Hellbourg, G, Hickish, J, Isaacson, H, Price, DC, Croft, S, DeBoer, D, Lebofsky, M, MacMahon, D and Werthimer, D (2017) The breakthrough listen search for intelligent life: 1.1–1.9 GHz observations of 692 Nearby Stars. Astrophysical Journal 849, 104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fogg, MJ (1987) Temporal aspects of the interaction among the first galactic civilizations: the ‘interdict hypothesis’. Icarus 69, 370–384.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forgan, DH (2009) A numerical testbed for hypotheses of extraterrestrial life and intelligence. International Journal of Astrobiology 8, 121–131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forgan, DH (2011) Spatio-temporal constraints on the zoo hypothesis, and the breakdown of total hegemony. International Journal of Astrobiology 10, 341–347.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forgan, DH (2013) On the possibility of detecting class a stellar engines using exoplanet transit curves. Journal of the British Interplanetary Society 66, 144–154.Google Scholar
Forgan, DH (2014) Can collimated extraterrestrial signals be intercepted?. Journal of the British Interplanetary Society 67, 232–236.Google Scholar
Forgan, DH (2017) The galactic club or galactic cliques? Exploring the limits of interstellar hegemony and the zoo hypothesis. International Journal of Astrobiology 16, 349–354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forgan, DH (2019) Exoplanet transits as the foundation of an interstellar communications network. Internationa Journal of Astrobiology 18, 189–198.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forgan, DH and Rice, K (2010) Numerical testing of the Rare Earth Hypothesis using Monte Carlo realization techniques. International Journal of Astrobiology 9, 73–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forgan, DH, Dayal, P, Cockell, C and Libeskind, N (2016) Evaluating galactic habitability using high-resolution cosmological simulations of galaxy formation. International Journal of Astrobiology 16, 60–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frank, SA (2009) The common patterns of nature. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 22, 1563–1585.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Funes, JG, Florio, L, Lares, M and Asla, M (2019) Searching for spiritual signatures in SETI research. Theology and Science 17, 373.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galera, E, Galanti, GR and Kinouchi, O (2019) Invasion percolation solves Fermi Paradox but challenges SETI projects. International Journal of Astrobiology 18, 316–322.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glade, N, Ballet, P and Bastien, O (2012) A stochastic process approach of the drake equation parameters. International Journal of Astrobiology 11, 103–108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gobat, R and Hong, SE (2016) Evolution of galaxy habitability. Astronomy & Astrophysics 592, A96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gonzalez, G (2005) Habitable Zones in the Universe. Origins of Life and Evolution of Biospheres 35, 555–606.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gonzalez, G, Brownlee, D and Ward, P (2001) The galactic habitable zone: galactic chemical evolution. Icarus 152, 185–200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grimaldi, C (2017) Signal coverage approach to the detection probability of hypothetical extraterrestrial emitters in the Milky Way. Scientific Reports 7, 46273.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Grimaldi, C, Marcy, GW, Tellis, NK and Drake, F (2018) Area coverage of expanding E.T. signals in the galaxy: SETI and Drake's N. Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific 130, 987.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haqq-Misra, J (2019) Does the evolution of complex life depend on the stellar spectral energy distribution? Accepted for publication in Astrobiology; doi: 10.1089/ast.2018.1946.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haqq-Misra, J and Kopparapu, RK (2018) The drake equation as a function of spectral type and time. Habitability of the Universe Before Earth 307–319.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harp, GR, Ackermann, RF, Astorga, A, Arbunich, J, Barrios, J, Hightower, K, Meitzner, S, Barott, WC, Nolan, MC, Messerschmitt, DG, Vakoch, DA, Shostak, S, Tarter, JC (2018) The application of autocorrelation SETI search techniques in an ATA survey. Astrophysical Journal 869, 66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hart, MH (1975) An explanation for the absence of extraterrestrials on earth. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 16, 128.Google Scholar
Hinkel, N, Hartnett, H, Lisse, C and Young, P (2019) An interdisciplinary perspective on elements in astrobiology: from stars to planets to life. Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society 51, 497.Google Scholar
Hippke, M (2017) Interstellar communication. IV. Benchmarking information carriers. Acta Astronáutica, (accepted), arXiv e-prints, 1711.07962.Google Scholar
Horvat, M (2006) Calculating the probability of detecting radio signals from alien civilizations. International Journal of Astrobiology 5, 143–149.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Horvat, M, Nakić, A and Otočan, I (2011) Impact of technological synchronicity on prospects for CETI. International Journal of Astrobiology 11, 51–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jeong, H, Tombor, B, Albert, R, Oltivai, ZN and Barabasi, AL (2000) The large-scale organization of metabolic networks. Nature 407, 651–654.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lampton, M (2013) Information-driven societies and Fermi's paradox. International Journal of Astrobiology 12, 312–313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lineweaver, CH, Fenner, Y and Gibson, BK (2004) The galactic habitable zone and the age distribution of complex life in the milky way. Science 303, 59–62.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lingam, M and Loeb, A (2018) Relative likelihood of success in the search for primitive versus intelligent extraterrestrial life. Astrobiology 19, 28–39.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Loeb, A and Zaldarriaga, M (2007) Eavesdropping on radio broadcasts from galactic civilizations with upcoming observatories for redshifted 21 cm radiation. Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics 2007, 020.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Loeb, A, Batista, RA and Sloan, D (2016) Relative likelihood for life as a function of cosmic time. Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics 8, 040–040.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maccone, C (2010) The KLT (Karhunen–Loève Transform) to extend SETI searches to broad-band and extremely feeble signals. Acta Astronautica 67, 1427–1439.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maccone, C (2011 a) SETI and SEH (Statistical equation for habitables). Acta Astronautica 68, 63–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maccone, C (2011 b) A mathematical model for evolution and SETI. Origins of Life and Evolution of Biospheres 41, 609–619.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Maccone, C (2013) SETI, evolution and human history merged into a mathematical model. International Journal of Astrobiology 12, 218–245.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maccone, C (2014 a) Evolution and mass extinctions as lognormal stochastic processes. International Journal of Astrobiology 13, 290–309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maccone, C (2014 b) Lognormals for SETI, Evolution and mass extinctions. Acta Astronautica 105, 538–546.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maccone, C (2015) Statistical drake-seager equation for exoplanet and SETI searches. Acta Astronautica 115, 277–285.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martín, HG and Goldenfeld, N (2006) On the origin and robustness of power-law species-area relationships in ecology. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 103, 10310–10315.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitzenmacher, M (2004) A brief history of generative models for power law and lognormal distributions. Internet Mathematics 1, 226–251.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morris, Conway (2018) Three explanations for extraterrestrials: sensible, unlikely, mad. International Journal of Astrobiology 17, 287–293.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrison, IS and Gowanlock, MG (2015) Extending galactic habitable zone modeling to include the emergence of intelligent life. Astrobiology 15, 683–696.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Murante, G, Moncaco, P, Borgani, S, Tornatore, L, Dolag, K and Goz, D (2015) Simulating realistic disc galaxies with a novel sub-resolution ISM model. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 447, 178–201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newman, MEJ (2005) Power laws, Pareto distributions and Zipf's law. Contemporary Physics 46, 323–351.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newman, WI and Sagan, C (1981) Galactic civilizations: population dynamics and interstellar diffusion. Icarus 46, 293–327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peters, T (2018) Outer space and cyber space: meeting ET in the cloud. International Journal of Astrobiology 17, 282–286.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prantzos, N (2013) A joint analysis of the drake equation and the Fermi paradox. International Journal of Astrobiology 12, 246–253.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ptolemaeus, C (2014) System Design, Modeling, and Simulation. Using Ptolemy II. Berkeley: Ptolemy.org, ISBN 9781304421067.Google Scholar
Rahvar, S (2017) Cosmic initial conditions for a habitable universe. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 470, 3095–3102.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramirez, R, Gómez-Muñoz, MA, Vázquez, R and Núñez, P (2017) New numerical determination of habitability in the Galaxy: the SETI connection. International Journal of Astrobiology 17, 34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ross, S (2012) Simulation. San Diego, CA: Elsevier Science Publishing Co Inc.Google ScholarPubMed
Simkin, MV and Roychowdhury, VP (2006) Theory of aces: fame by chance or merit?. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 30, 33–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, RD (2009) Broadcasting but not receiving: density dependence considerations for SETI signals. International Journal of Astrobiology 8, 101–105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solomonides, E, Kaltenegger, L and Terzian, Y (2016) A probabilistic analysis of the Fermi paradox. 228th AAS, San Diego, vol. 228, pp. 1–14.Google Scholar
Sornette, D (2006) Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences: Chaos, Fractals, Selforganization and Disorder: Concepts and Tools. Heidelberg, Germany: Springer. ISBN 9783540308829. doi: 10.1088/0305-4470/37/40/b03.Google Scholar
Sotos, JG (2019) Biotechnology and the lifetime of technical civilizations. International Journal of Astrobiology 18, 445.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Starling, J and Forgan, DH (2014) Virulence as a model for interplanetary and interstellar colonization-parasitism or mutualism?. International Journal of Astrobiology 13, 45–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tarter, J (2001) The search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI). Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 39, 511–548.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tarter, J, Backus, P, Blair, S, Cordes, J, Harp, G, Henry, RC, Horowitz, P, Howard, AW, Kilsdonk, T, Korpela, EJ, Lasio, J, Levin, S, Shostack, GS and Werthimer, D (2009) Advancing the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Astro2010 Astronomy and Astrophysics Decadal Survey Science White Paper 2010, 294. Available at http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009astro2010S.294T.Google Scholar
Vakoch, DA and Dowd, MF (2015) The Drake Equation: Estimating the Prevalence of Extraterrestrial Life Through the Ages. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vukotić, B and Ćirković, MM (2012) Astrobiological complexity with probabilistic cellular automata. Origins of Life and Evolution of Biospheres 42, 347–371.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Vukotić, B, Steinhauser, D, Martinez-Aviles, G, Ćirković, MM, Micic, M and Schindler, S (2016) ‘Grandeur in this view of life’: N -body simulation models of the Galactic habitable zone. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 459, 3512–3524.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walters, C, Hoover, RA and Kotra, RK (1980) Interstellar colonization: a new parameter for the drake equation? Icarus 41, 193–197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, JT, Cartier, KMS, Zhao, M, Jontof-Hutter, D and Ford, EB (2015) The Ĝ search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies. Iv. the signatures and information content of transiting megastructures. Astrophysical Journal 816, 17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, JT, Kanodia, S and Lubar, E (2018) How much SETI has been done? Finding needles in the n-dimensional cosmic haystack. The Astronomical Journal 156, 260.CrossRefGoogle Scholar