Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-ndw9j Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-19T12:45:00.375Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Self-conscious intelligent technological societies in the universe: a simple direct approach to probable astrosociological realistic scenarios

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 December 2021

L. A. L. da Silva Open the ORCID record for L. A. L. da Silva [Opens in a new window]
L. A. L. da Silva*
Affiliation:
Alexander von Humboldt Scientific Research Nucleus, Omega Centauri Network for the Advancement of Scientific Education, Caixa Postal 109, CEP 95590-970, Tramandaí, RS, Brazil. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We present an alternative equation to estimate the probable number N of self-conscious intelligent technological societies (SCITSs) within the radius of the observable universe. This equation has only one poorly-known factor, Pc, the SCITS's formation probability, which can be estimated within an uncertainty by a factor of 102 (10−11 ≤ Pc ≤ 10−9) by applying the restriction imposed by Fermi's Paradox. The SCITS's formation rate for a typical spiral galaxy is then estimated as ≈1 civ Gyr−1. For a very optimistic maximum life expectancy ≈108 yr, the conclusion is that two civilizations never coexist in the same galaxy. Our estimated values for Pc are compatible with current biological and astrophysical evidences. We also propose an alternative astrosociological classification scheme which enables us to speculate about possible evolutionary paths for SCITSs in the universe. The so-called ‘Closed Bottle Neck’ (CBN) scenario suggests that civilizations are no exit evolutionary ways. We argue that simply there would not be interstellar travels nor Galaxy colonization or a Galactic Club. Thus Fermi's Paradox results eliminated, and the perspectives about the future of our own civilization may not be positive.

Keywords

Astrosociologyextraterrestrial civilizationsFermi's Paradox
Type
Research Article
Information
International Journal of Astrobiology , Volume 21 , Issue 1 , February 2022 , pp. 9 - 31
Check for updates
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anglada-Escudé, G, Amado P, J, Barnes, J, Berdiñas, ZM, Butler, RP, Coleman, GAL, de La Cueva, I, Dreizler, S, Endl, M, Giesers, B, Jeffers, SV, Jenkins, JS, Jones, HRA, Kiraga, M, Kürster, M, López-González M, J, Marvin, CJ, Morales, N, Morin, J, Nelson, RP, Ortiz, JL, Ofir, A, Paardekooper, S-J, Reiners, A, Rodríguez, E, Rodríguez-López, C, Sarmiento, LF, Strachan, JP, Tsapras, Y, Tuomi, M and Zechmeister, M (2016) A terrestrial planet candidate in a temperate orbit around Proxima Centauri. Nature 536, 437–440.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barcelos, ED (1997) Telegramas para Marte: Os Estudos de Vida e Inteligência Extraterrestre entre 1920 e 1959 (Ph.D. thesis). USP, São Paulo (in Portuguese).Google Scholar
Beckwith, SVW, Steven, VW, Stiavelli, M, Koekemoer, AM, Caldwell, JAR, Ferguson, HC, Hook, R, Lucas, RA, Bergeron, LE, Corbin, M, Jogee, S, Panagia, N, Robbert, M, Royle, P, Somerville, RS and Sosey, M (2006) The Hubble ultra deep field. Astronomical Journal 132, 1729–1755.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blair, DG, Norris, RP, Troup, ER, Twardy, R, Wellington, KJ, Williams, AJ, Wright, AE and Zadnik, MG (1992) A narrow-band search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) using the interstellar contact channel hypothesis. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 257, 105–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bracewell, RN (1960) Communications from superior galactic communities. Nature 186, 670–671.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brin, GD (1983) The ‘Great Silence’: the controversy concerning extraterrestrial intelligent life. The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 24, 282–309.Google Scholar
Casti, JL (2011) X-Events: The Collapse of Everything. New York: HarperCollins Publishers.Google Scholar
Chyba, CF and Hand, KP (2005) Astrobiology: the study of the living universe. Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 43, 31–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ćirković, MM (2015) Kardashev's classification at 50+: a fine vehicle with room for improvement. Serbian Astronomical Journal 191, 1–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, AC (1997) 3001: The Final Odyssey. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Cocconi, G and Morrison, P (1959) Searching for interstellar communications. Nature 184, 844–846.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conselice, C, Wilkinson, A, Duncan, K and Mortlock, A (2016) The evolution of galaxy number density at z < 8 and its implications. Astrophysical Journal 830, 83–100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, LJ (1976) An explanation for the absence of extraterrestrials on Earth. The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 17, 201–208.Google Scholar
Delgado-Serrano, R, Hammer, F, Yang, YB, Puech, M, Flores, H and Rodrigues, M (2010) How was the Hubble sequence 6 Gyr ago? Astronomy and Astrophysics 509, A78–A89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deng, X-F, He, JZ and Wen, XQ (2009) Comparisons of the environmental dependence of galaxy properties between galaxies above and below M. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 395, L90–L93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diehl, R, Halloin, H, Kretschner, K, Giselher, GL, Volker, S, Strong, AW, von Kienlin, A, Wang, W, Jean, P, Knödlseder, J, Roques, J-P, Weidenspointner, G, Schanne, S, Hartmann, DH, Winkler, C and Wunderer, C (2006) Radioactive 26 Al from massive stars in the Galaxy. Nature 439, 45–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dyson, FJ (1960) Search for artificial stellar sources of infrared radiation. Science (New York, N.Y.) 131, 1667–1668.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ellis, GFR (1975) Cosmology and verifiability. The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 16, 245–264.Google Scholar
Ellis, GFR (1978) Is the universe expanding? Journal of General Relativity and Gravitation 9, 87–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frank, A and Sullivan, WT III (2016) A new empirical constraint on the prevalence of technological species in the universe. Astrobiology 16, 359–362.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Freeman, KC (2010) The HERMES project: reconstructing galaxy formation. In Block, DL, Freeman, KC and Puerari, I (eds). Galaxies and Their Masks: A Conference in Honour of K. C. Freeman, FRS. Berlin, Germany: Springer, p. 319.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galántai, Z (2004) Long futures and type IV civilizations. Periodica Polytechnica Social and Management Sciences 12, 83–89.Google Scholar
Garcia, A and Tarter, J (2019) Technosearch tool. https://technosearch.seti.org/.Google Scholar
Gillon, M, Jehin, E, Lederer, SM, Delrez, L, de Wit, J, Burdanov, A, van Grootel, V, Burgasser, AJ, Triaud, AHMJ, Opiton, C, Demory, B-O, Sahu, DK, Gagliuffi, DB, Magain, P and Queloz, D (2016) Temperate Earth-sized planets transiting a nearby ultracool dwarf star. Nature 533, 221–224.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Goldsmith, D (ed) (1980) The Quest for Extraterrestrial Life: A Book of Readings. Mill Valley, CA: Univ. Sci. Books, 308 pp.Google Scholar
Gonzalez, G, Brownlee, D and Ward, P (2001) The galactic habitable zone I. Galactic chemical evolution. Icarus 152, 185–200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gray, RH and Mooley, K (2017) A VLA search for radio signals from M31 and M33. Astronomical Journal 153, 110–122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Griffith, RL, Wright, JT, Maldonado, J, Povich, MS, Sigurđsson, S and Mullan, B (2015) The Ĝ infrared search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies. III. The reddest extended sources in WISE. Astrophysics Journal Supplement Series 217, 25–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grinspoon, D (2003) Lonely Planets: The Natural Philosophy of Alien Life. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Hammer, F, Flores, H, Elbaz, D, Zheng, XZ, Liang, YC and Cesarsky, C (2005) Did most present-day spirals form during the last 8 Gyr? Astronomy and Astrophysics 430, 115–128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hart, MH (1975) An explanation for the absence of extraterrestrials on Earth. The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 16, 128–135.Google Scholar
Hart, MH (1979) Habitable zones about main sequence stars. Icarus 37, 351–357.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hawking, S (2018) Brief Answers to the Big Questions. London: Spacetime Publications Ltd.Google Scholar
Huang, S-S (1959) Occurrence of life in the universe. American Scientist 47, 397–402.Google Scholar
Johnson, J and Li, H (2012) The first planets: the critical metallicity for planet formation. Astrophysical Journal 751, 81–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, EM (1976) Colonization of the Galaxy. Icarus 28, 421–422.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kardashev, NS (1964a) Transmission of information by extraterrestrial civilizations. Astronomicheskii Zhurnal 41, 282–287, (in Russian).Google Scholar
Kardashev, NS (1964b) Transmission of information by extraterrestrial civilizations. Soviet Astronomy 8, 217–221.Google Scholar
Kasting, JF (1988) Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of Earth and Venus. Icarus 74, 472–494.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kecskes, C (1998) The possibility of finding traces of extraterrestrial intelligence on asteroids. Journal of the British Interplanetary Society 51, 175–179.Google Scholar
Kecskes, C (2009) Evolution and detectability of advanced civilizations. Journal of the British Interplanetary Society 62, 316–319.Google Scholar
Lépine, J (2008) A Via Lactea, nossa Ilha no Universo. São Paulo: University of São Paulo Press, (in Portuguese).Google Scholar
Lineweaver, CH and Davis, TM (2003) Bioastronomy 2002: life among the stars, ASP Conference Series, 28.Google Scholar
López-Corredoira, M, Prieto, CA, Garzón, F, Wang, H, Liu, C and Deng, L (2018) Disk stars in the Milky Way detected beyond 25 kpc from its center. Astronomy and Astrophysics 612, L8–11.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Margulis, L and Sagan, D (1998) What is Life? Berkeley: Univ. of California Press.Google Scholar
Marochnik, L and Mukhin, LM. (1986) Life in the Galaxy. In Ambartsumyan, VA, Kardashev, NS and Troitskii, VS (eds). The Problem of the Search for Life in the Universe. Proc. Conf. SETI Tallin, Estonia, USSR, Dec. 7–11, 1981. Moscow: Nauka, pp. 41–46.Google Scholar
Mayr, E (1993) The search for intelligence. Science (New York, N.Y.) 259, 1522–1523.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mayr, E (1994) Does it pay to acquire high intelligence? Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 37, 337–338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayr, E (2004) What Makes Biology Unique? Considerations on the Autonomy of a Scientific Discipline. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olejak, A, Belczynski, K, Bulik, T and Sobolewska, M (2020) Synthetic catalog of black holes in the Milky Way. Astronomy and Astrophysics 638, A94–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oparin, AI and Fesenkov, VG (1956) Zhizn’ vo vselennoy (Life in the Universe). Moscow: Acad. Sci. USSR (in Russian).Google Scholar
Ornstein, L (1982) Extraterrestrial intelligence: the debate continues. A biologist looks at the numbers. Physics Today 35, 27–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pamlin, D and Armstrong, S (2015) 12 Risks That Threaten Human Civilization: The Case for A new Risk Category. Stockholm: Global Challenges Foundation.Google Scholar
Petigura, EA, Howard, AW and Marcy, GW (2013) Prevalence of Earth-size planets orbiting Sun-like stars. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 110, 19273–19278.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Pikuta, EV, Hoover, RB and Tang, J (2007) Microbial extremophiles at the limits of life. Critical Reviews in Microbiology 33, 183–209.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Quillfeldt, JA (2016) O SETI e o Tamanho do Palheiro…. In Galante, D, Silva, EP, Rodrigues, F, Horvath, JE and Avellar, MGB (eds). Astrobiologia: uma Ciência Emergente. São Paulo: USP, pp. 293–314. http://www.iag.usp.br/astronomia/sites/default/files/astrobiologia.pdf.Google Scholar
Rolleston, WRJ, Smartt, SJ, Dufton, PL and Ryans, RSI (2000) The Galactic metallicity gradient. Astronomy and Astrophysics 363, 537–554.Google Scholar
Rood, R and Trefil, J (1981) Are We Alone? New York: Scribner.Google Scholar
Sackmann, I-J, Boothroyd, AI and Kraemer, KE (1993) Our sun. III. Present and future. Astrophysical Journal 418, 457–468.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sagan, C (1977) The Dragons of Eden. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Sandberg, A, Drexler, E and Ord, T (2018) Dissolving the Fermi paradox, arXiv:1806.02404.Google Scholar
Sharma, S, Stello, D, Bland-Hawthorn, J, Hayden, MR, Zinn, JC, Kallinger, T, Hon, M, Asplund, M, Buder, S, Silva, GM, D'Orazi, V, Freeman, K, Kos, J, Lewis, GF, Lin, J, Lind, K, Martell, S, Simpson, JD, Wittenmyer, RA, Zucker, DB, Zwitter, T, Bedding, TR, Chen, B, Čotar, K, Esdaile, J, Horner, J, Huber, D, Kafle, PR, Khanna, S, Li, T, Ting, Y-S, Nataf, DM, Nordlander, T, Saadon, MHM, Traven, G, Wright, D and Wyse, RFG (2019) The K2-HERMES survey: age and metallicity of the thick disc. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 490, 5335–5352.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shklovsky, JS and Sagan, C (1966) Intelligent Life in the Universe. San Francisco: Holden-Day.Google Scholar
Swift, J, Johnson, JA, Morton, TD, Creep, JR, Montet, BT, Fabrycky, DC and Muirhead, PS (2013) Characterizing the cool KOIs. IV. Kepler-32 as a prototype for the formation of compact planetary systems throughout the Galaxy. Astrophysical Journal 764, 105–118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tang, TB and Chang, G (1991) Classification of extraterrestrial civilizations. The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 32, 189–191.Google Scholar
Teske, RG (1993) Planetary resources for extraterrestrial technology are unlikely. The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 34, 335–336.Google Scholar
Tipler, F (1980) Extraterrestrial intelligent beings do not exist. The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 21, 267–281.Google Scholar
Udry, S and Santos, NC (2007) Statistical properties of exoplanets. Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 45, 397–439.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vidal, C (2014) The Beginning and the End: The Meaning of Life in a Cosmological Perspective. New York: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
von Hoerner, S (1978) Where is everybody? Naturwissenschaften 65, 553–557.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wallenhorst, SG (1981) The Drake equation re-examined. The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 22, 380–387.Google Scholar
Ward, PD and Brownlee, D (2000) Rare Earth. New York: Copernicus Books.Google Scholar
Webb, S (2002) Where is Everybody? New York: Copernicus Books.Google Scholar
Wesson, PS (1990) Cosmology, extraterrestrial intelligence, and a resolution of the Fermi-Hart paradox. The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 31, 161–170.Google Scholar
Westby, T and Conselice, CJ (2020) The astrobiological Copernican weak and strong limits for intelligent life. Astrophysical Journal 896, 58–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Winn, JN and Fabrycky, DC (2015) The occurrence and architecture of exoplanetary systems. Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics 53, 409–447.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zuckerman, B and Hart, MH (eds) (1995) Extraterrestrials: Where Are They? Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar