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Astrophysical existential threats: a comparative analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 June 2022

Niamh Burns  and
William T. Parsons Open the ORCID record for William T. Parsons [Opens in a new window]
Niamh Burns
Affiliation:
Department of Physics, American University, Washington, DC 20016, USA
William T. Parsons*
Affiliation:
Department of Physics, American University, Washington, DC 20016, USA
*
Author for correspondence: William T. Parsons, E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

Using a simple, coarse-grained Poisson process model, we calculate – for seven types of astrophysical catastrophe – both their individual and combined threat to complex lifeforms (extraterrestrial intelligences (ETIs)) throughout the Milky Way Galaxy. In terms of cumulative effects, we calculate that ETIs are likely to be astrophysically driven extinct on timescales of roughly once every 100 million years. In terms of comparative effects, large bolide impactors represent the most significant type of astrophysical contribution to the galaxy-wide debilitation of hypothesized ETI civilizations. Nonetheless, we conclude that astrophysical existential threats – whether taken singly or in combination – are likely insufficient, alone, to explain the Fermi Paradox. Astrophysical catastrophes, while both deadly and ubiquitous, do not appear to be frequent enough to wipe out every species in the Galaxy before they can attain or utilize spacefaring status.

Keywords

astrophysical catastropheexistential threatFermi Paradoxmass extinction
Type
Research Article
Information
International Journal of Astrobiology , Volume 21 , Issue 6 , December 2022 , pp. 441 - 461
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Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press

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