Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gxg78 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-22T22:34:26.709Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Assessment of Intervention Measures for the 2003 SARS Epidemic in Taiwan by Use of a Back-Projection Method

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 January 2015

Paul S. F. Yip ,
Y. H. Hsieh ,
Ying Xu ,
K. F. Lam ,
C. C. King  and
H. L. Chang
Paul S. F. Yip*
Affiliation:
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Y. H. Hsieh
Affiliation:
Department of Applied Mathematics, NationalChung Hsing University, Taichung
Ying Xu
Affiliation:
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
K. F. Lam
Affiliation:
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
C. C. King
Affiliation:
Institute of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
H. L. Chang
Affiliation:
Center for Disease Control, Department of Health, Taipei, Taiwan
*
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong ([email protected])
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Objectives.

To reconstruct the infection curve for the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Taiwan and to ascertain the temporal changes in the daily number of infections that occurred during the course of the outbreak.

Method.

Back-projection method.

Results.

The peaks of the epidemic correspond well with the occurrence of major infection clusters in the hospitals. The overall downward trend of the infection curve after early May corresponds well to the date (May 10) when changes in the review and classification procedure were implemented by the SARS Prevention and Extrication Committee.

Conclusion.

The major infection control measures taken by the Taiwanese government over the course of the SARS epidemic, particularly those regarding infection control in hospitals, played a crucial role in containing the outbreak.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology , Volume 28 , Issue 5 , May 2007 , pp. 525 - 530
Copyright
Copyright © The Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America 2007

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1. Cinati, J, Morgenstern, B, Bauer, G, Chandra, R, Rabenau, H, Doerr, HW. Glycyrrhizin, an active component of liquorice roots, and replication of SARS-associated Coronavirus. Lancet 2003;361:2045–2046.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
2. Yip, SF, Lam, KF, Lau, HY, Chau, PH, Tsang, KW, Chao, A. A comparison study of real-time fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, China. J R Stat Soc Ser A 2005;168:233–243.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
3. Yip, SF, Lau, HY, Lam, KF, Huggins, RM. A chain multinomial model for estimating the real-time fatality rate of a disease, with an application to severe acute respiratory syndrome. Am J Epidemiol 2005;161:700–706.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
4. Chau, PH, Yip, SF. Monitoring the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic and assessing effectiveness of interventions in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. J Epidemiol Community Health 2003;57:766–769.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
5. Becker, NG, Marschner, IC. A method for estimating the age-specific relative risk of HIV infection from AIDS incidence data. Biometrika 1993;80:165–178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
6. Becker, NG, Watson, LF, Carlin, JB. A method of non-parametric back-projection and its application to AIDS data. Stat Med 1991;10:1527–1542.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
7. Brookmeyer, R, Gail, MH. A method for obtaining short-term projections and lower bounds on the size of the AIDS epidemic. J Am Stat Assoc 1988;83:301–308.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
8. World Health Organization. Summary of probable SARS cases with onset of illness from 1 November 2002 to 31 July 2003. September 26, 2003. Available at: http://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2003_09_23/en/. Accessed January 6, 2006.Google Scholar
9. World Health Organization. Summary of probable SARS cases with onset of illness from 1 November 2002 to 31 July 2003. April 21,2004. Available at: http://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/index.html. Accessed January 6, 2006.Google Scholar
10. Hsieh, YH, King, CC, Chen, WS, et al. Quarantine for SARS, Taiwan. Emerg Infect Dis 2005;11:278–282.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
11. Chin, SC, Lin, JH, Lai, SK, et al. Testing for the virus load of probable SARS cases in Taiwan. In: Su, IJ, ed. Memoir of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Control in Taiwan, 2003. Taipei: CDC-Taiwan; 2003:32–38.Google Scholar
12. Wu, YC, Hsiung, CA, Chen, KT, et al. Comparison of clinical and laboratory profiles between Coronavirus positive and negative SARS probable cases in Taiwan. In: Su, IJ, ed. Memoir of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Control in Taiwan, 2003. Taipei: CDC-Taiwan; 2003:11–26.Google Scholar
13. Wang, JT, Sheng, WH, Fang, CT, et al. Clinical manifestations, laboratory findings, and treatment outcomes of SARS patients. Emerg Infect Dis 2004;10:818–824.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
14. Hsieh, YH, Chen, WS, Hsu, SB. SARS outbreak, Taiwan, 2003. Emerglnfect Dis 2004;10:201–206.Google Scholar
15. McDonald, LC, Simor, AE, Su, IJ, et al. SARS in healthcare facilities, Toronto and Taiwan. Emerg Infect Dis 2004;10:777–781.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
16. World Health Organization. Case definitions for surveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). May 1, 2003. Available at: http://www.who.int/csr/sars/casedefinition/en/. Accessed January 6, 2006.Google Scholar
17. Donnelly, CA, Fisher, MC, Fraser, C, et al. Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Lancet Infect Dis 2004;4:672–683.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
18. Leung, GM, Hedley, AJ, Ho, LM, et al. The epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2003 Hong Kong epidemic: an analysis of all 1755 patients. Ann Intern Med 2004;141:662–673.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
19. Donnelly, CA, Ghani, AC, Leung, GM, et al. Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of SARS in Hong Kong. Lancet 2003;361:1761–1766.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
20. Karlberg, J, Chong, DSY, Lai, WYY. Do men have a higher case fatality rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome than women do? Am J Epidemiol 2004;159:229–231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
21. Center for Disease Control-Taiwan. SARS major timeline. In: Su, IJ, ed. Memoir of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Control in Taiwan, 2003. Taipei: CDC-Taiwan; 2003:67–81.Google Scholar
22. Chen, YC, Huang, LM, Chan, CC, et al. SARS in hospital emergency room. Emerg Infect Dis 2004;10:782–788.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
23. Hsieh, YH, Lee, JY, Chang, HL. SARS epidemiology modeling. Emerglnfect Dis 2004;10:1165–1167.Google ScholarPubMed
24. Moira, CY, Yu, WC. Outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: case report. BMJ 2003;326:850–852.Google Scholar
25. Pang, XH, Zhu, ZH, Xu, FJ, et al. Evaluation of control measures implemented in the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in Beijing, 2003. JAMA 2003;290:3215–3221.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
26. Zhou, G, Yan, G. Severe acute respiratory syndrome in Asia. Emerg Infect Dis 2003;9:1608–1610.Google ScholarPubMed
27. Center for Disease Control-Taiwan. Association of the sporadic SARS outbreak in Taiwan. In: Su, IJ, ed. Memoir of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Control in Taiwan, 2003. Taipei: CDC-Taiwan; 2003:44.Google Scholar
28. Ho, PL, Chau, PH, Yip, SF, et al. A prediction rule for clinical diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Eur Respir J 2005;26:474–479.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed