¹ Research was supported by a grant from the social science research council. I am grateful to Professor F. W. Paish for permission to quote from his father's unpublished memoirs and to the members of seminars at Cambridge, London, Oxford and Southampton for valuable comments.

² Kondratieff, N. D., ‘The long waves of economic life’, Lloyds Bank Review, no. 129 (July 1978), pp. 41–60Google Scholar (first published 1926); Rostow, W. W. and Kennedy, M., ‘A simple model of the Kondratieff cycle’, Research in Economic History, iv (1979), 1–36.Google Scholar

³ A. J. Balfour, 123 H. of C. deb. 4s (28 May 1903), 159; Viscount Goschen, 6 Nov. 1903 in All sides of the fiscal controversy, ed. Gilmour, T. L. (London, 1903), pp. 285–6;Google ScholarGiffen, R., ‘Are we living on capital?’ (1901), reprinted in Economic inquiries and studies (London, 1904), 11,Google Scholar 283–90; W. Smart, ‘The equivalence of imports and exports’, The Times, 18 Aug. 1903, 8c-d; H. W. Primrose, ‘Income derived from abroad and its influence ortimports’, 20 Aug. 1903, Public Record Office (P.R.O.) Inland Revenue (I.R.) 63/47, fos- 372–6; Tomlinson, J., Problems of British economic policy 1870–1945 (London, 1981), p. 50.Google Scholar

⁴ E. A. Sassoon, 184 H. of C. deb. 4s (12 Feb. 1908), 28; 187 H. Of C. deb. (30 Apr. 1908), 1379; 188 H. of C. deb. (7 May 1908), 510.

⁵ Ricardo, D., Principles of political economy and taxation, ed. Sraffa, P. and Dobb, M. H. (Cambridge, 1951), pp. 247–8. But Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage, which provided a theoretical foundation for the doctrine of free trade, postulated the immobility of capital!Google Scholar

⁶ E.g. at Nottingham, The Times, 26 Nov. 1889, 6e.

⁷ 191 H. of C. deb. 4s (29 June 1908), 395–6.

⁸ I H. of C. deb. 5s (18 Feb. 1909), 240–1.

⁹ Ibid. (16 Feb. 1909), 31–2.

¹⁰ Ibid. (18 Feb. 1909), 250.

¹¹ Hutchison, T. W., A review of economic doctrines (Oxford, 1953), pp. 414–6.Google Scholar

¹² Barnes, i H. of C. deb. 5s (16 Feb. 1909), 105–7; Hardie, ibid. (17 Feb.), 185.

¹³ Schuster, G., ‘The patents and designs act, 1907’, Economic Journal, xix (1909), 538–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹⁴ Burns, i H. of C. deb. 5s (17 Feb. 1909), 183–4; Churchill, ibid. 186–91.

¹⁵ W. S. Churchill to D. Lloyd George, 20 June 1909, Churchill, R. S., Winston S. Churchill, ii, companion vol. part 2 (London, 1969), 898.Google Scholar

¹⁶ 2 H. of C. deb. 5s (17 Mar. 1909), 1181.

¹⁷ 1 H. of C. deb. 5s (16 Feb. 1909), 45.

¹⁸ Percy Ashley, ‘British investments abroad’ (Board of Trade memorandum), 10 March 1909, I.R. 63/47, fos. 380–96.

¹⁹ Board of Trade, ‘ Memorandum on the position of employment and trade at the beginning of 1909’, 1 Feb. 1909, P.R.O. Cabinet papers (CAB.) 37/97/18. These memoranda were prepared quarterly for the cabinet starting in March 1903.

²⁰ Calculated from Mallet, B., British budgets, 1887–8 to 1912–13 (London, 1913), pp. 394, 396.Google Scholar

²¹ Ibid., 1909–10 estimate on basis of 1908–9 revenue (p. 396), compared with total revenue.

²² Ibid. p. 299. Lloyd George may have exaggerated the deficit for tactical reasons (Murray, B. K., The people's budget 1909–10 (Oxford, 1980), p. 124).Google Scholar

²³ The Times, 15 May 1909, 4f.

²⁴ ‘The budget - City protest meeting’, The Times, 24 June 1909, 8a-d; Sir Schuster, F., ‘Are death duties an economically sound form of taxation?’, Nineteenth century and after, XLV (July 1909), 7–17.Google Scholar

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²⁶ The Times, 23 Nov. 1909, 8c; Keynes, J. M., ‘Great Britain's foreign investments’, New Quarterly (Feb. 1910),Google Scholar reprinted in The collected writings of John Maynard Keynes, xv, ed. E., Johnson (London, 1971), 44–59.Google Scholar

²⁷ Thompson, F.M. L., English landed society in the nineteenth century (London, 1963), pp. 322–4; Departmental committee on tenant farmers and sales of estates: mins. of evidence (P.P. 1912–13 XLVII), QQ. 1651, 1805–7.Google Scholar

²⁸ 2nd Viscount Esher to King George V, 22 Oct. 1911, Journals and letters of Reginald, Viscount Esher, iii, ed. Oliver, , Viscount Esher (London, 1938), 67.Google Scholar

²⁹ Professor F. W. Paish to the author, 31 Nov. 1978.

³⁰ See, e.g. The Master of Elibank to E. Speyer, 8 Aug. 1912, Asquith papers 144, Bodleian library, fos. 20–3; Fitzroy, Sir A., Memoirs (2 vols., London, n.d.), 1, 387;Google ScholarMandeville, A. Moreton, The house of Speyer (London, 1915); Obituary, The Times, 18 Feb. 1932, 17b.Google Scholar

³¹ Sir George Paish, ‘My memoirs’ (typescript, n.d. c. 1950), fo. 1 (cited by courtesy of Prof. F. W. Paish).

³² Ibid. fo. 2; Speyer, E., ‘Some aspects of national finance’, Journal of the Institute of Bankers, XXVI (Oct. 1905), 361 (acknowledgements to Paish), 368–70.Google Scholar

³³ Paish, ‘Memoirs’, fo. 3.

³⁴ Board of Trade, ‘Memorandum on the position of employment and trade in the third quarter of 1910’ (printed), p. 9, L. Harcourt papers 578, Bodleian library.

³⁵ Paish, G., ‘Great Britain's capital investments in other lands’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, LXXII (Sept. 1909), 465–95CrossRefGoogle Scholar and ‘Great Britain's investments in individual colonial and foreign countries’, J.R.S.S., LXXIV (Jan. 1911), 167–200.Google Scholar

³⁶ 17 H. of C. deb. 5s (25 April 1910), 135–7; 18 H. of C. deb. (30 June 1910), 1126–7.

³⁷ J. A. Pease, ‘Memorandum in regard to an early General Election’, 30 March 1910, p. 3, CAB. 37/102/11.

³⁸ ‘A disquieting outlook’, BM (May, 1910), 663–8.

³⁹ Paish, ‘Memoirs’, fo. 4.

⁴⁰ See especially P.R.O. Treasury (T.) 171/20, 30, 43, 53, 67, 92; T. 172/117 and Asquith papers 24, fo. 124 ff.

⁴¹ The most rounded account is Sir George Paish, ‘The export of capital and the cost of living’, Statist supplement, 14 Feb. 1914.

⁴² For an overview see Hutchison, Economic doctrines, pt. iii. Interesting extra-canonical contributions include Gibson, A. H., The fall in consols and other investments since 1897 (Halifax, 1908)Google Scholar and his articles in the BM; Murray, G. I., ‘The cause of the fall in Consols’, Transactions of the Manchester Statistical Society (Dec. 1913)Google Scholar and the remarkable series by Packe, C. E., ‘Dear food, cheap consols and labour unrest’, BM (Jan.-Apr. 1913).Google Scholar

⁴³ Lloyd George speeches, The Times, 5 Feb. 1912, 6d and 30 Nov. 1912, 8d.

⁴⁴ Paish, ‘Memoirs’, fos. 8–31.

⁴⁵ E. Speyer, The export of capital: its effect on the welfare of the empire (address to the Liberal Colonial Club, 24 May 1911), and ‘Germany and England as citizens of the world’, in England and Germany, by leaders of public opinion in both countries, ed. L., Stein (London, 1912), pp. 35–9.Google Scholar

⁴⁶ Cain, P.J., ‘J. A. Hobson, Cobdenism and the radical theory of economic, imperialism’, Economic History Review, xxxi (1978)Google Scholar and comments by Clarke, P. F. and Cain, P. J. in Econ. Hist. Rev., xxxiv (1981), 308–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

⁴⁷ Hobson, J. A., ‘Do foreign investments benefit the working classes?’, Financial Review of Reviews, VII (Mar. 1909), 30.Google Scholar

⁴⁸ Fremantle, Admiral E. R., Financial Review of Reviews, vii (Dec. 1909).Google Scholar

⁴⁹ Paish, ‘Memoirs’, fos. 4–5; The Economist, 8 July 1911, 57; 22 July, 200.

⁵⁰ The Times, 22 July 1911, 7a-b.

⁵¹ Precision would be misleading, but the main components of the national stock in 1913 may be estimated as follows: Reproducible capital stock (dwellings, other buildings, plant and machinery) - £8,500 million; furniture and durable goods (incl. books; at ten times annual expenditure) - £1,000 million; land-£1,300 million; overseas assets - £4,180 millions. All quantities except land taken from Feinstein, C. H., National income, expenditure and output of the United Kingdom (Cambridge, 1972),Google Scholar tables 24, 46, 50. George Paish estimated the ratio between home and foreign assets to be some 35:1 in 1914, with £4,000 millions invested abroad ([G. Paish], “The financial strength of Great Britain’, n.d. 1914, T. 171/92); Platt, D. C. M., ‘British portfolio investment overseas before 1870: some doubts’, Econ. Hist. Rev., xxxiii (1980), 14–16, would place the level of overseas assets much lower.Google Scholar

⁵² Hobsbawm, E. J., Industry and empire (Pelican edn, Harmondsworth, 1969), pp. 191–3.Google Scholar

⁵³ Stockbroker, A, ‘The depreciation of home securities’, Economic Journal, XXII (1912), 220–5.Google Scholar

⁵⁴ From £3,834 to £3,341 millions. The 387 securities on this index were almost equally divided (by nominal value) between home and foreign issues (BM, monthly, passim). Unlisted domestic industrial shares may have performed better, and death duty statistics do indicate a shift in this direction, but the total capital passing at death showed virtually no increase (a mere 0.5 % a year, 1898–1914; see Offer, A., Property and politics 1870–1914 (Cambridge, 1981), pp. 111, 146).Google Scholar

⁵⁵ Packe, ‘Dear food’, p. 43.

⁵⁶ Edelstein, M., ‘Realized rates of return on U.K. home and overseas portfolio investment in the age of high imperialism’, Explorations in Economic History xii (1976), 312, 326–7.Google Scholar

⁵⁷ Speech at Sheffield, 17 Oct 1911, Askwith, G., Industrial problems and disputes (London, 1920), p. 176.Google Scholar

⁵⁸ See Offer, Property and politics, esp. pp. 111–12, 232–3, 239 and passim.

⁵⁹ Blumenfeld, R. D., R.D.B.'s diary 1887–1914 (London, 1930), 4 Feb. 1908, pp. 207–8;Google ScholarReitlinger, G., The economics of taste (3 vols., London 1961–70), 1, 167–9.Google Scholar

⁶⁰ Packe, ‘Dear food’, p. 40.

⁶¹ Board of Inland Revenue, ‘General capital levy’, 19 May 1919, I.R. 63/86, fo. 276.

⁶² The same as municipal securities, but somewhat more than railway debentures. See A. W. Flux, ‘The yield of high-class investments’, Transactions of the Manchester Statistical Society (Feb. 1911), esp. p. 120; Stockbroker, ‘Depreciation’, pp. 228–30.

⁶³ ‘Antibilious stock’ - J. Nasmyth, engineer: an autobiography, ed. S., Smiles (London, 1912 edn), P. 359.Google Scholar

⁶⁴ ‘Consols and their present price’, BM (Aug. 1911), 134.

⁶⁵ The Governor of the Bank of England (A. C. Cole), BM (June 1911), 898; Jackson, F. Huth, presidential address, Journal of the Institute of Bankers XXXII (Dec. 1911), 496, 501;Google Scholar Sir Schuster, F., The Times, 12 May 1912, 7a.Google Scholar

⁶⁶ Rae, G., The country banker: his clients, cares and work (London, 4th edn 1885), pp. 206–18.Google Scholar

⁶⁷ [R. H. I. Palgrave], ‘The progress of banking in Great Britain and Ireland during 1913. 1. Capital and reserve funds’, BM (Jan. 1914), 3–7 (a lower estimate). Reserves, see Sheppard, D., The growth and role of UK financial institutions 1880–1962 (London, 1971), p. 118.Google Scholar

⁶⁸ H. H. Asquith, Mansion House speech, BM (Aug. 1907), 58; Lord Reveldstoke, The Times, 23 Nov. 1909, 8c-d.

⁶⁹ See BM and financial press in general, 1906–12, passim; Sir George Hervey (Comptroller national debt office) to Asquith, 2 Dec. 1907, P.R.O. N.D.O. 15/7, fo. 5; ‘Sir E. Holden on fall of consols’, Statist, 27 Jan. 1912; The Times, 5 Feb. 1912, 6e.

⁷⁰ From a vast literature see, e.g. Sir Schuster, F., ‘Our gold reserves’, Journal of the Institute of Bankers, xxviii (Jan. 1907); T. 168/97; ‘Gold reserves - a plea for enlarging our gold base’, BM (Apr. 1908).Google Scholar

⁷¹ See e.g. ‘Gold reserves - some practical suggestions’, BM (Dec. 1912), 720–31; Sir Edward Holden, ‘My views of trade for the coming year’ (typed memorandum, c. Mar. - Apr. 1913), T. 171/30; Sir E. Holden, ‘The world's money markets’, Statist supplement, 24 Jan. 1914, esp. vii-viii; B. P. Blackett, ‘Gold reserves’, 22 May 1914, T. 170/19 (rep. in de Cecco, M., Money and empire: the international gold standard 1890–1914 (Oxford, 1974), pp. 173–206. De Cecco also reprints a relevant Paish memo from T. 171/53 in pp. 207–15).Google Scholar

⁷² This is the gist of the advice given by Sir G. Paish and B. P. Blackett in the spring of 1914, T. 171/53. See also J. M. Keynes to Blackett, 24june 1914, in Keynes, Collected writings, xvi, 5–6.

⁷³ Murray, People's Budget, pp. 91–2.

⁷⁴ Inside Asquith's cabinet: from the diaries of Charles Hobhouse, ed. E., David (London, 1977), p. 90.Google Scholar

⁷⁵ No net government lending for urban and rural capital formation until 1908, after which year the annual sum gradually rose from £200,000 (1908–9) to £1.7 millions by March 1914, making a total of £6.9 millions over six years. This, however, included some £4.3 millions for die small holdings programme, an outlay almost entirely spent on purchase from landowners. (Public Works Loan Board. 39th annual report, 1913–14; P.P. 1914 (298) XLVIII, 18–19; 40th report, 1914–15; P.P. 1914–16 (267) xxxiv, 9).

⁷⁶ Excluding Ireland. Calculated from Mitchell, B. R. and Deane, P., Abstract of British historical statistics (Cambridge, 1971 edn), ‘Public finance’ tables 4, 10–14. And see Offer, Property and politics, pp. 386–7.Google Scholar

⁷⁷ W. G. Turpin (National Debt Office), ‘Irish land purchase’, [a] 16 Jan. and [b] 3 Mar. 1913, CAB. 37/114/6, 17; E. Speyer to A. Birrell, 10 Feb. 1913, Asquith papers 109, fos. 21–6.

⁷⁸ As note 77 above, and R. Chalmers, ‘Treasury observations on Mr Turpin's proposals for expediting Irish land purchase’, 1 May 1913, CAB. 37/115/29, p. 1.

⁷⁹ Offer, Property and politics, pp. 378–80.

⁸⁰ The Times, 4 March 1913, 10a.

⁸¹ Paish to Lloyd George, c. 25 Sept.-4 Oct. 1913, House of Lords Record Office, Lloyd George papers, C/9/5/49.

⁸² ‘Formation of an interdepartmental committee to consider the mitigation of industrial depressions (both seasonal and cyclical) by the distribution of government and municipal contracts, I914’, T. 1/11631/10551; R. G. Hawtrey, Good and bad trade (London, 1913), pp. 260–1: R. G. Hawtrey, ‘Unemployment and public works, 1914’ (n.d. Aug. I914), fo. 1, Hawtrey papers 1/10, Churchill College, Cambridge.

⁸³ J. C. Stamp, ‘The economic effects of estate duties upon capital’, June 1914, I.R. 63/47, fa. 216–33.

⁸⁴ T. 1/11391/3909; M. Nathan, ‘The avoidance of income tax by accumulation of interest abroad’, 19 Mar. 1912, I.R. 63/47, fos- 410–16ff.

⁸⁵ Sir Felix Schuster to Asquith, 9 Dec. 1913, T. 171/61; Paish to Lloyd George, 21 Apr. 1914, T. 171/67. Paish had already urged this point two years earlier in his memo, of 19 July 1912, T. 171/20, p. 12.

⁸⁶ Seel.R. 63/47, fos. 253–419; T. 171/61 (Inland Revenue memo., 31 Jan. 1914);T. 172/124 and T. 1/11654/15268 (overseas protests).

⁸⁷ Money, L. Chiozza, The nation's wealth: will it endure? (London, 1914), pp. 135–9.Google Scholar

⁸⁸ Paish, ‘Export of capital’ (1914); Paish to Lloyd George, 23 June 1914, T. 171/67.

⁸⁹ Paish, ‘Great Britain's capital investments’ (1911), p. 200; also his memo., 8 July 1912, p. 10, T. 171/20.

⁹⁰ Statist, 21 Oct. 1905, quoted by Viner, J., Canada's balance of international indebtedness 1900–1913 (Cambridge, Mass. 1924), p. 280.Google Scholar

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⁹² A. Selby-Bigge, ‘Education - proposals for expenditure of £3,500,000 in 1914–15’, 9 April 1914, T. 171/76.

⁹³ McCloskey, D. H., ‘Did Victorian Britain fail?’ Econ. Hist. Rev., xxiii (1970), 451–5. The formula ‘no evidence’ is already used in P. Ashley, ‘British investments abroad’, 10 Mar. 1909, I.R. 63/47, fo. 396.Google Scholar