This paper explores what motivates improved health care performance. Previously, many have thought that performance would either improve via choice and competition or by relying on trust and altruism. But neither assumption is supported by available evidence. So instead we explore a third approach of reciprocal altruism with sanctions for unacceptably poor performance and rewards for high performance. These rewards and sanctions, however, are not monetary, but in the form of reputational effects through public reporting of benchmarking of performance. Drawing on natural experiments in Italy and the United Kingdom, we illustrate how public benchmarking can improve poor performance at the national level through ‘naming and shaming’ and enhance good performance at the sub-national level through ‘competitive benchmarking’ and peer learning. Ethnographic research in Zambia also showed how reputations count. Policy-makers could use these effects in different ways to improve public services.

Health technology assessment (HTA) is not simply a mechanistic technical exercise as it takes place within a specific institutional context. Yet, we know little about how this context influences the operation of HTA and its ability to influence policy and practice. We seek to demonstrate the importance of considering institutional context, using a case study of Hungary, a country that has pioneered HTA in Central and Eastern Europe. We conducted 26 in-depth, semi-structured interviews with public- and private-sector stakeholders. We found that while the HTA Department, the Hungarian HTA organisation, fulfilled its formal role envisaged in the legislation, its potential for supporting evidence-based decision-making was not fully realised given the low levels of transparency and stakeholder engagement. Further, the Department’s practical influence throughout the reimbursement process was perceived as being constrained by the payer and policy-makers, as well as its own limited organisational capacity. There was also scepticism as to whether the current operational form of the HTA process delivered ‘good value for money’. Nevertheless, it still had a positive impact on the development of a broader institutional HTA infrastructure in Hungary. Our findings highlight the importance of considering institutional context in analysing the HTA function within health systems.

Transparency is recognised to be a key underpinning of the work of health technology assessment (HTA) agencies, yet it has only recently become a subject of systematic inquiry. We contribute to this research field by considering the Polish Agency for Health Technology Assessment (AHTAPol). We situate the AHTAPol in a broader context by comparing it with the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in England. To this end, we analyse all 332 assessment reports, called verification analyses, that the AHTAPol issued from 2012 to 2015, and a stratified sample of 22 Evidence Review Group reports published by NICE in the same period. Overall, by increasingly presenting its key conclusions in assessment reports, the AHTAPol has reached the transparency standards set out by NICE in transparency of HTA outputs. The AHTAPol is more transparent than NICE in certain aspects of the HTA process, such as providing rationales for redacting assessment reports and providing summaries of expert opinions. Nevertheless, it is less transparent in other areas of the HTA process, such as including information on expert conflicts of interest. Our findings have important implications for understanding HTA in Poland and more broadly. We use them to formulate recommendations for policymakers.

Although there is substantial literature on the impact of smoking laws, the number of studies that investigate the impact of such policies on college campuses is sparse. Using a rich data set from various waves of the American College Health Association National College Health Assessment survey for a mid-sized public university in the southern United States, we investigate a possible causal link between a limited smoking policy and smoking behaviours, health and academic outcomes among college students. We employ propensity score matching methods to control for endogeneity of unobservable characteristics. Our results show a significant reduction in the propensity to smoke cigarettes and cigars following the introduction of the policy. Further, we find that the policy has increased academic outcomes; however, it has no significant effect on student health. These findings have important policy implications for schools that are considering instituting comprehensive smoking bans on college.

Models of household decision-making commonly focus on nuclear family members as primary decision-makers. If extended families shape the objectives and constraints of households, then neglecting the role of this network may lead to an incomplete understanding of health-seeking behaviour. Understanding the decision-making processes behind care-seeking may improve behaviour change interventions, better intervention targeting and support health-related development goals. This paper uses data from a cluster randomised trial of a participatory learning and action cycle (PLA) through women’s groups, to assess the role of extended family networks as a determinant of gains in health knowledge and health practice. We estimate three models along a continuum of health-seeking behaviour: one that explores access to PLA groups as a conduit of knowledge, another measuring whether women’s health knowledge improves after exposure to the PLA groups and a third exploring the determinants of their ability to act on knowledge gained. We find that, in this context, a larger network of family is not associated with women’s likelihood of attending groups or acquiring new knowledge, but a larger network of husband’s family is negatively associated with the ability to act on that knowledge during pregnancy and the postpartum period.

Inequalities in infant mortality rates (IMRs) are rising in some low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and decreasing in others, but the explanation for these divergent trends is unclear. We investigate whether government expenditures and redistribution are associated with reductions in inequalities in IMRs. We estimated country-level fixed-effects panel regressions for 48 LMICs (142 country observations). Slope and Relative Indices of Inequality in IMRs (SII and RII) were calculated from Demographic and Health Surveys between 1993 and 2013. RII and SII were regressed on government expenditure (total, health and non-health) and redistribution, controlling for gross domestic product (GDP), private health expenditures, a democracy indicator, country fixed effects and time. Mean SII and RII was 39.12 and 0.69, respectively. In multivariate models, a 1 percentage point increase in total government expenditure (% of GDP) was associated with a decrease in SII of −2.468 [95% confidence intervals (CIs): −4.190, −0.746] and RII of −0.026 (95% CIs: −0.048, −0.004). Lower inequalities were associated with higher non-health government expenditure, but not higher government health expenditure. Associations with inequalities were non-significant for GDP, government redistribution, and private health expenditure. Understanding how non-health government expenditure reduces inequalities in IMR, and why health expenditures may not, will accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals.

There is little debate that the health workforce is a key component of the health care system. Since the training of doctors and nurses takes several years, and the building of new schools even longer, projections are needed to allow for the development of health workforce policies. Our work develops a projection model for the demand of doctors and nurses by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in the year 2030. The model is based on a country’s demand for health services, which includes the following factors: per capita income, out-of-pocket health expenditures and the ageing of its population. The supply of doctors and nurses is projected using country-specific autoregressive integrated moving average models. Our work shows how dramatic imbalances in the number of doctors and nurses will be in OECD countries should current trends continue. For each country in the OECD with sufficient data, we report its demand, supply and shortage or surplus of doctors and nurses for 2030. We project a shortage of nearly 400,000 doctors across 32 OECD countries and shortage of nearly 2.5 million nurses across 23 OECD countries in 2030. We discuss the results and suggest policies that address the shortages.

Models for projecting the demand for and supply of health care workers are generally based on objectives of meeting demands for health care and assumptions of status quo in all but the demographic characteristics of populations. These models fail to recognise that public intervention in health care systems arises from market failure in health care and the absence of an independent demand for health care. Hence projections of demand perpetuate inefficiencies in the form of overutilisation of services on the one hand and unmet needs for care on the other. In this paper the problems with basing workforce policy on projected demand are identified and the consequences for health care system sustainability explored. Integrated needs-based models are offered as alternative approaches that relate directly to the goals of publicly funded health care systems and represent an important element of promoting sustainability in those systems.