Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-mlc7c Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-06T10:04:41.734Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Defeat at Home? Issue-Ownership and Social Democratic Support in Scandinavia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 March 2014

Abstract

The aim of this article is to account for the differences in electoral support for social democratic parties in Scandinavia in recent years. The main argument put forward is that the relative success of the Swedish Social Democratic Party (SAP) in preserving voter support compared to the major decline for both the Danish and Norwegian social democrats should be understood by focusing on two factors, both related to the phenomenon of issue-voting. We argue that the relative success of the SAP must been seen in light of the way in which traditional political issues, like employment and social welfare, have continued to dominate Swedish political debates, whereas in Norway and Denmark, new political issues, particularly immigration, have sailed up the political agenda and paved the way for new right-wing parties which attract social democratic voters. Secondly, we believe that one issue in particular, that of the future of the welfare state, is important for preserving social democratic support. Therefore, it is also relevant that the Swedish Social Democratic Party appears to have been more successful than social democratic parties in the neighbouring countries in convincing voters that it is the party best suited to preserve the existing welfare system.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Government and Opposition Ltd 2004

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

2 See for instance G. Esping-Andersen, Politics Against Markets, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1985; F. G. Castles, The Social Democratic Image of Society, London, Routledge, 1978.

3 We put somewhat more emphasis on the Swedish case as the political developments here have been different from the two other cases.

4 Keman, H., ‘Theoretical Approaches to Social Democracy’, Journal of Theoretical Politics, 5: 3 (1993), pp. 291316.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

5 See n. 2 above; A. Przeworski and J. Sprague, Paper Stones: a History of Electoral Socialism, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1986; Pontusson, J., ‘Explaining the Decline of European Social Democracy. The Role of Structural Economic Change’, World Politics, 47: 4 (1995), pp. 495533 CrossRefGoogle Scholar

6 Kitschelt, H., ‘Class Structure and Social Democratic Party Strategy’, British Journal of Poltiical Science, 23: 2 (1993), pp. 299337 CrossRefGoogle ScholarH. Kitschelt, The Transformation of European Social Democracy, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1994; H. Kitschelt, ‘European Social Democracy between Political Economy and Electoral Competition’, in H. Kitschelt et al. (eds), Continuity and Change in Contemporary Capitalism, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1999, pp. 317–45.

7 H. Kitschelt, The Transformation of European Social Democracy, op. cit.

8 All data for the figures on the electoral support for social democratic and other parties have been taken from Sundberg, J., ‘The Enduring Scandinavian Party System’, Scandinavian Political Studies, 22: 3 (1999), pp. 221–42CrossRefGoogle Scholar supplemented by the homepages of the parliaments in the three countries.

9 See n. 8 above for sources.

10 Kuhnle, S., ‘The Scandinavian Welfare State in the 1990s: Challenged but Viable’, West European Politics, 23: 2 (2000), pp. 209–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

11 J. G. Andersen et al., ‘The Legitimacy of the Nordic Welfare States: Trends, Variations and Cleavages’, in M. Kautto et al. (eds), Nordic Social Policy. Changing Welfare States, London, Routledge, 1999, pp. 235–61; S. Svallfors and P. Taylor-Gooby (eds), The End of the Welfare State?: Responses to State Retrenchment, London, Routledge, 1999.

12 O. Borre, ‘Gammel og ny venstre-højre ideologi’, in J. Andersen et al., Vælgere med omtanke, Aarhus, Systime, 1999, pp. 151–9; B. Aardal, Velgere i 90-ärene, Oslo, NKS-Forlaget, 1999.

13 O. Borre, Issue Voting, Aarhus, Aarhus University Press, 2001.

14 D. Robertson, A Theory of Party Competition, London, Wiley, 1976; I. Budge and D. Farlie, ‘Party Competition – Selective Emphasis or Direct Confrontation? An Alternative View with Data’, in H. Daalder and P. Mair (eds), West European Party Systems. Continuity & Change, London, Sage Publications, 1983, pp. 267–305.

15 Petrocik, J., ‘Issue-Ownership in presidential Elections with a 1980 Case Study’, American Journal of Political Science, 40: 3 (1996), pp. 825–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

16 Green-Pedersen, C., Van Kersbergen, K. and Hemerijck, A., ‘Neo-liberalism, the “Third Way” or What? Recent Social Democratic Welfare Policies in Denmark and the Netherlands’, Journal of European Public Policy, 8: 2 (2001), pp. 307–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

17 G. Esping-Andersen, Politics Against Markets, op. cit.

18 Valen, H., ‘National Conflict Structure and Foreign Politics. The Impact of the EE Issue on Perceived Cleavages in Norwegian Politics’, European Journal of Political Research, 4: 1 (1976), pp. 4782.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

19 Valen, H., ‘The Storting Election of 1977: Realignment or Return to Normalcy?’, Scandinavian Political Studies, 1: 2–3 (1978), pp. 83107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

20 Valen, H., ‘The Storting Election of 1989: Polarization and Protest’, Scandinavian Political Studies, 13: 3 (1990), pp. 277–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

21 Aardal, B., ‘Green Politics: A Norwegian Experience’, Scandinavian Political Studies, 13: 2 (1990), pp. 147–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

22 H. Valen, ‘The Storting Election of 1989’, op. cit.

23 H. Valen, B. Aardal and G. Vogt, Endring og Kontinuitet. Stortingsvalget 1989, Oslo, Statisk Sentralbyrä, 1990, p. 17.

24 B. Aardal and H. Valen, Konflikt og Opinion, Oslo, NKS-forlaget, 1995.

25 Aardal, B., ‘One for the Record – the 1997 Storting Election’, Scandinavian Political Studies, 21: 4 (1998), pp. 367–81CrossRefGoogle Scholar

26 H. Valen, ‘Norway, the Storting Election of September 12, 2001’, Electoral Studies, 22: 1 (2003), pp. 179–85; B. Aardal (ed.), Velgere i vilrede, Oslo, N. W. Damm & Søn, 2003, pp. 7–30 and 241–8.

27 M. N. Pedersen, ‘The Defeat of All Parties. The Danish Folketing Election, 1973’, in K. Lawson and P. H. Merkl (eds), When Parties Fail, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1988, pp. 257–81.

28 P. Nannestad, Danish Design or British Disease?, Aarhus, Aarhus University Press, 1991.

29 P. Nannestad and C. Green-Pedersen, ‘Keep the Bumblebee Flying: Economic Policy in the Welfare State of Denmark, 1973–1999’, in E. Albæk et al. (eds), Managing the Danish Welfare State under Pressure: Towards a Theory of the Dilemmas of the Welfare State, Aarhus, Aarhus University Press, forthcoming.

30 Green-Pedersen, C. and Van Kersbergen, K., ‘The Politics of the “Third Way”. The Transformation of Social Democracy in Denmark and the Netherlands’, Party Politics, 8: 5, 2002, pp. 507–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

31 J. G. Andersen, ‘Hvad kan partierne. Partiernes kompetence-image’, in J. Andersen et al. (eds), Vælgere med omtanke, op. cit., pp. 137–50; 142–4.

32 Andersen, J. G., ‘Denmark: Environmental Conflict and the “Greening” of the Labour Movement’, Scandinavian Political Studies, 13: 2 (1990), pp. 185210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

33 O. Borre, ‘Belønnes regeringen?’, in J. Elklit and O. Tonsgaard (eds), To folketingsvalg, Aarhus, Politica, 1989, pp. 291–303.

34 See n. 30 above: P. Nannestad and C. Green-Pedersen, ‘Keep the Bumblebee Flying’, op. cit.

35 See n. 32 above: J. G. Andersen, ‘Hvad kan partierne’, op. cit.

36 O. Borre and J. G. Andersen, Voting and Political Attitudes in Denmark, Aarhus, Aarhus University Press, 1997, pp. 86–92.

37 Andersen, J. G., ‘The Danish General Election 2001’, Electoral Studies, 22: 1 (2003), pp. 186–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

38 H. J. Nielsen, ‘Op til valget’, in J. Andersen et al. (eds), Vælgere med omtanke, op. cit., pp. 29–37.

39 See n. 37 above: J. G. Andersen, ‘The Danish General Election 2001’, op. cit.; Andersen, J. G., ‘Operationen lykkedes, men lægen døde. Socialdemokratiets kriser fra Krag til Lykketoft’, Politica, 35: 4 (2003), pp. 413–32Google ScholarO. Borre and J. G. Andersen (eds), Politisk forandring: værdipolitik og nye skillelinjer. 2001 valget i perspektiv, Aarhus, Systime, 2004.

40 This figure applies also to white collar workers.

41 For good overviews of this period, see for example L. Schön, Omvandling och obalans, Stockholm, Fritzes, 1994, and A. Martin, ‘The Politics of Macroeconomic Policy and Wage Negotiations in Sweden’, in T. Iversen, J. Pontusson and D. Soskice (eds), Unions, Employers and Central Banks, New York, Cambridge University Press, 1999, pp. 232–64.

42 K.-O. Feldt, Alla dessa dagar. I regeringen 1982–1990, Stockholm, Nordstedt, 1991.

43 A. Häkansson, ‘Det socialdemokratiska valnederlaget och utvecklingen mot “dealignment” i Sverige’, in B. Burulf and B. Fryklund (eds), Det Politiska missnöjets Sverige, Lund, Lund University Press, 1994, pp. 7–40.

44 See n. 43 above.

45 M. Brenner and T. Bundgaard Vaad, ‘Sweden and Denmark. Defending the Welfare State’, in F. Scharpf and V. Schmidt (eds), Welfare and Work in the Open Economy. Volume II. Diverse Responses to Common Challenges, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2000, pp. 399–466.

46 L. Nilsson, ‘Offentlig sektor och privatisering 1986–1996’, in S. Holmberg and L. Weibull (eds), Ett missnöjt folk?, SOM- rapport nr 18, Gothenburg, SOM instituttet, 1997, pp. 103–5.

47 Rydgren, J., ‘Radical Right Populism in Sweden. Still a Failure, But for How Long?’, Scandinavian Political Studies, 25: 1 (2002), pp. 2756.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

48 Public opinion poll institute TEMO AB. http://www.temo.se, 2002.

49 TEMO AB. http://www.temo.se, 2002.

50 As shown above, the EU has caused troubles for the Norwegian Social Democrats, but is not the explanation for decline at the two latest elections. The issue of refugees and immigrants has mainly popped up in connection with local elections where it has benefited the Progress Party; T. Bjørklund and J. G. Andersen, ‘Radical Right-Wing Populism in Scandinavia: from Tax Revolt to Neo-liberalism and Xenophobia’, in P. Hainsworth (ed.), The Politics of the Extreme Right, London, Pinter, 2000, pp. 193–220.

51 H. Oscarsson, ‘Svenska folkets partikartor’, in Holmberg and Weibull, Mitt i nittio-talet. op. cit., pp. 291–313.

52 S. Holmberg, Välja part, Stockholm, Samhälle, Norstedts Juridik, 2000, pp. 138–48.

53 Möller, T., ‘The Swedish Election of 1998: A Protest Vote and the Birth of A New Political Landscape?’, Scandinavian Political Studies, 22: 3 (1999), pp. 261–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

54 G. Esping-Andersen, Politics against Markets, op. cit.

55 Rydgren, J., ‘Radical Right Populism in Sweden. Still a Failure, But for How Long?’, Scandinavian Political Studies, 25: 1 (2002), pp. 2756.CrossRefGoogle Scholar