² Grönlund, Kimmo and Setälä, Maija, ‘Political Trust, Satisfaction and Voter Turnout’, Comparative European Politics, 5: 4 (2007), pp. 400–22CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

³ Shaffer, Stephen, ‘A Multivariate Explanation of Decreasing Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1960–1976’, American Journal of Political Science, 25: 1 (1981), pp. 68–95 CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See however Hetherington, Marc, ‘The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote, 1968–96’, American Political Science Review, 93: 2 (1999), pp. 311–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁴ Billiet, Jaak and De Witte, Hans, ‘Attitudinal Dispositions to Vote for a “New” Extreme Right-Wing Party: The Case of “Vlaams Blok”’, European Journal of Political Research, 27: 2 (1995), pp. 181–202 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Denemark, David and Bowler, Shaun, ‘Minor Parties and Protest Votes in Australia and New Zealand: Locating Populist Parties’, Electoral Studies, 21: 1 (2002), pp. 47–67 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Pauwels, Teun, ‘Explaining the Success of Neoliberal Populist Parties: The Case of Lijst Dedecker in Belgium’, Political Studies, 58: 5 (2010), pp. 1009–29CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁵ Hirschman, Albert, Exit, Voice, and Loyalty, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 1970 Google Scholar.

⁶ Kenneth Newton, ‘Social and Political Trust’, in Russell Dalton and Hans-Dieter Klingemann (eds), Oxford Handbook of Political Behaviour, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2007, pp. 342–61; Bovens, Mark and Wille, Anchrit, ‘Deciphering the Dutch Drop: Ten Explanations for Decreasing Political Trust in the Netherlands’, International Review of Administrative Sciences, 74: 2 (2008), pp. 283–305 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁷ Taggart, Paul, ‘Populism and Representative Politics in Contemporary Europe’, Journal of Political Ideologies, 9: 3 (2004), pp. 269–88CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁸ Rydgren, Jens, ‘The Sociology of the Radical Right’, Annual Review of Sociology, 33: 1 (2007), pp. 241–62CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁹ Hetherington, ‘The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote’.

¹⁰ Bélanger, Éric and Nadeau, Richard, ‘Political Trust and the Vote in Multiparty Elections: The Canadian Case’, European Journal of Political Research, 44: 1 (2005), pp. 121–46CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹¹ See, e.g. Van der Brug, Wouter, Fennema, Meindert and Tillie, Jean, ‘Anti-Immigrant Parties in Europe: Ideological or Protest Vote’, European Journal of Political Research, 37: 1 (2000), pp. 77–102 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Ivarsflaten, Elisabeth, ‘What Unites the Populist Right in Western Europe? Reexamining Grievance Mobilization Models in Seven Successful Cases’, Comparative Political Studies, 41: 1 (2008), pp. 3–23 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Söderlund, Peter and Kestilä-Kekkonen, Elina, ‘Dark Side of Party Identification? An Empirical Study of Political Trust among Radical Right-Wing Voters’, Journal of Electioins, Public Opinion & Parties, 19: 2 (2009), pp. 159–81CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹² Grönlund and Setälä, ‘Political Trust, Satisfaction and Voter Turnout’.

¹³ Pauwels, ‘Explaining the Success of Neoliberal Populist Parties’, p. 1016.

¹⁴ PartiRep, ‘Belgian Election Study 2009: Data File’, Brussels, Leuven and Antwerp, PartiRep, 2009, available at www.partirep.eu.

¹⁵ In this article we refer to the Flemish region (c. 6 million inhabitants) in the north of the country and the Walloon region in the south of the country (c. 4 million inhabitants). For reasons of clarity we do not analyse the results of the smaller regions in Belgium (i.e. the bilingual capital Brussels and the German-language community). For all practical purposes, the Flemish region can be identified as the Dutch-speaking area of Belgium, while the Walloon region can be referred to as the French-speaking region of the country. For more detailed information about the Belgian federal system, we refer to Kris Deschouwer, The Politics of Belgium, Basingstoke, Palgrave, 2009.

¹⁶ David Easton, A Framework for Political Analysis, Englewood Cliffs, Prentice Hall, 1965; Gabriel Almond and Sidney Verba, The Civic Culture, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1963.

¹⁷ Miller, Arthur and Listhaug, Ola, ‘Political Parties and Confidence in Government: A Comparison of Norway, Sweden and the United States’, British Journal of Political Science, 20: 3 (1990), pp. 357–86, at p. 381CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁸ Easton, David, A Systems Analysis of Political Life, New York, Wiley 1967 Google Scholar; Norris, P., Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Government, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1999 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Klingemann, H.-D. and Fuchs, D., Citizens and the State, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1995 Google Scholar.

¹⁹ Russell Dalton, Democratic Challenges, Democratic Choices: The Erosion of Political Support in Advanced Industrial Democracies, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2004; Kaina, Viktoria, ‘Declining Trust in Elites and Why We Should Worry About It: With Empirical Evidence from Germany’, Government and Opposition, 43: 3 (2008), pp. 405–23CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁰ Dalton, Democratic Challenges; Stolle, Dietlind and Hooghe, Marc, ‘Inaccurate, Exceptional, One-Sided or Irrelevant? The Debate About the Alleged Decline of Social Capital and Civic Engagement in Western Societies’, British Journal of Political Science, 35: 1 (2005), pp. 149–67CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²¹ Miller and Listhaug, ‘Political Parties and Confidence in Government’.

²² Alvarez, Michael R., Hall, Thad E. and Llewellyn, Morgan H., ‘Are Americans Confident their Ballots are Counted?’, Journal of Politics, 70: 3 (2008), pp. 754–66CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Birch, Sarah, ‘Perceptions of Electoral Fairness and Voter Turnout’, Comparative Political Studies, 43: 12 (2010), pp. 1501–622CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²³ Li, Yaojun and Marsh, David, ‘New Forms of Political Participation: Searching for Expert Citizens and Everyday Makers’, British Journal of Political Science, 38: 2 (2008), pp. 247–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁴ Hetherington, ‘The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote’, p. 318.

²⁵ Hakhverdian, Armèn and Koop, Christel, ‘Consensus Democracy and Support for Populist Parties in Western Europe’, Acta Politica, 42 (2007), pp. 401–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁶ Bélanger and Nadeau, ‘Political Trust and the Vote in Multiparty Elections’.

²⁷ Ibid., p. 127.

²⁸ Van der Brug, Fennema and Tillie, ‘Anti-Immigrant Parties in Europe’; Lubbers, Marcel, Scheepers, Peer and Billiet, Jaak, ‘Multilevel Modelling of Vlaams Blok Voting’, Acta Politica, 35: 4 (2000), pp. 363–98Google Scholar; Lubbers, Marcel, Gijsberts, Merové and Scheepers, Peer, ‘Extreme Right-Wing Voting in Western Europe’, European Journal of Political Research, 41: 3 (2002), pp. 345–78CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Ivarsflaten, ‘What Unites the Populist Right in Western Europe?’; Arzheimer, Kai, ‘Contextual Factors and the Extreme Right Vote in Western Europe, 1980–2002’, American Journal of Political Science, 53: 2 (2009), pp. 259–75CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Ford, Robert and Goodwin, Matthew, ‘Angry White Men: Individual and Contextual Predictors of Support for the British National Party’, Political Studies, 58: 1 (2010), pp. 1–25 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁹ It is interesting to note that, although compulsory voting is not actually enforced in Belgium, in practice turnout rates remain stable above 90 per cent. Some legislative proposals to abolish compulsory voting have never reached the plenary session of the Belgian Parliament: Sarah Birch, Full Participation: A Comparative Study of Compulsory Voting, Manchester, Manchester University Press, 2009.

³⁰ Power, Timothy and Garand, James, ‘Determinants of Invalid Voting in Latin America’, Electoral Studies, 26: 2 (2007), pp. 432–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

³¹ Hooghe, Marc and Pelleriaux, Koen, ‘Compulsory Voting in Belgium: An Application of the Lijphart Thesis’, Electoral Studies, 17: 4 (1998), pp. 419–24Google Scholar.

³² Various electoral districts in Belgium have replaced traditional voting (paper and pencil) with electronic voting, which has made invalid votes impossible. However, the system does allow voters to cast a blank vote and explicitly asks if they want to do so. Evidence suggests that in districts where people vote electronically invalid votes disappear, while blank votes rise substantially.

³³ Deschouwer, The Politics of Belgium.

³⁴ Kris Deschouwer, Organiseren of bewegen? De evolutie van de Belgische partijstructuren sinds 1960, Brussels, VUB Press, 1993.

³⁵ Lubbers, Scheepers and Billiet, ‘Multilevel Modelling of Vlaams Blok Voting’; Lubbers, Gijsberts and Scheepers, ‘Extreme Right-Wing Voting in Western Europe’.

³⁶ In November 2004 the party changed its name from Vlaams Blok (the Flemish Bloc) to Vlaams Belang (the Flemish Interest) following a verdict by the high court in Belgium that confirmed an earlier conviction on charges of racism.

³⁷ Ignazi, Piero, Extreme Right Parties in Western Europe, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

³⁸ Jagers, Jan and Walgrave, Stefaan, ‘Populism as a Political Communication Style: An Empirical Study of Political Parties' Discourse in Belgium’, European Journal of Political Research, 46: 3 (2007), pp. 319–45CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

³⁹ Pauwels, ‘Explaining the Success of Neoliberal Populist Parties’.

⁴⁰ Coffé, Hilde, ‘Do Individual Factors Explain the Different Success of the Two Belgian Extreme Right Parties?’, Acta Politica, 40: 1 (2005), pp. 74–93 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Art, David, ‘The Organizational Origins of the Contemporary Radical Right: The Case of Belgium’, Comparative Politics, 40: 4 (2008), pp. 421–40CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁴¹ Pascal Delwit, La vie politique en Belgique de 1830 à nos jours, Brussels, Éditions de l'Université Libre de Bruxelles, 2009.

⁴² Lubbers, Gijsberts and Scheepers, ‘Extreme Right-Wing Voting in Western Europe’.

⁴³ Sperber, Nathan, ‘Three Million Trotskyists? Explaining Extreme Left Voting in France in the 2002 Presidential Election’, European Journal of Political Research, 49: 3 (2010), pp. 359–92CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁴⁴ Sartori, Giovanni, Parties and Party Systems, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1976, pp. 132–6Google Scholar.

⁴⁵ PartiRep, ‘Belgian Election Study 2009’.

⁴⁶ Deschouwer, The Politics of Belgium.

⁴⁷ For budgetary reasons the Belgian Election Study was conducted only in the Flemish and the Walloon region. The Brussels bilingual region (10 per cent of the population) and the German-speaking community (less than 1 per cent of the population) were excluded. Given that 90 per cent of the population was included, we can still be confident that the 2009 PartiRep Election Study is representative for Belgium as a whole.

⁴⁸ There is no significant relation between political trust and panel dropout, indicating that there is no significant relation between political trust and attrition in our sample.

⁴⁹ European Social Survey, ‘ESS-3 2006 Documentation Report. Edition 2.0’, Bergen, European Social Survey Data Archive, Norwegian Social Science Data Services, 2007; European Social Survey Round 3 Data, ‘Data File Edition 2.0’, Norway, Norwegian Social Science Data Services, Data Archive and distributor of ESS data, 2006 (ESS data is available at http://ess.nsd.uib.no/).

⁵⁰ Belgium is divided in separate electoral districts per region, which implies that voters can only vote for those parties that use the language of that region.

⁵¹ In a separate analysis voting preference in the first wave was used as a dependent variable. This did not lead to substantially different results.

⁵² We also controlled for economic voting motives but these variables did not significantly contribute to the explanation of party choice and were therefore not included in the final analyses.

⁵³ The strong deterrent effect of compulsory voting might partly be caused by some confusion among potential voters. While courts no longer prosecute non-voters, they still keep track of voters that are randomly assigned to ‘voluntarily’ man the polling stations. Citizens who fail to perform this civic duty are prosecuted, and this is well-publicized.

⁵⁴ Alan Agresti, An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis, 2nd edn, Hoboken, Wiley, 2007.

⁵⁵ It has to be noted here that we created three equal groups for the political trust variable. Logistic regression models are sensitive to ‘incomplete information’. Given the number of variables in our model, including the full range of this variable would inevitably lead to too high a number of empty cells in the dataset. Recoding the possible values as three categories reduces the number of empty cells to an acceptable rate, improving the estimation precision of the parameters. An alternative analysis using the full range of the trust variable resulted in identical results (but should be considered less stable due to the high number of empty cells).

⁵⁶ The relation is only significant at the .05 level due to the limited number of respondents casting an invalid or blank vote.

⁵⁷ The explained variance is indeed larger for Flanders than for Wallonia when only political trust is included as explanatory variable.

⁵⁸ For all other political parties including the variable ‘willingness to vote’ did not change the significance level of the results.

⁵⁹ Miller and Listhaug, ‘Political Parties and Confidence in Government’. Gabriel Almond and Sidney Verba, The Civic Culture, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1963. European Social Survey Round 3 Data, ‘Data File Edition 2.0’, Norway, Norwegian Social Science Data Services, Data Archive and distributor of ESS data, 2006 (ESS data are available at http://ess.nsd.uib.no/.