Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-jkksz Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-24T02:09:28.200Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Randomness in the pattern of ‘mass extinctions’ and ‘waves of origination’

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 May 2009

Antoni Hoffman  and
Joe Ghiold
Antoni Hoffman
Affiliation:
Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, U.S.A.
Joe Ghiold
Affiliation:
Department of Geology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, U.S.A.
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

‘Mass extinctions’ and ‘waves of origination’ are defined as peaks in the average probability of family extinction and origination per geologic stage, respectively. A simple neutral model is proposed, assuming only that the average probabilities of family extinction and origination have varied independently and had equal chances of going up and down from one stage to another. As a null hypothesis, this model is not rejected by the available palaeontologic data on marine animal and nonmarine invertebrate families in the Phanerozoic. The only discrepancy between the model and the empirical pattern is due to a systematic bias introduced by Fossil-Lagerstätten. The alleged periodicity of Late Phanerozoic mass extinctions follows inevitably from the model.

Type
Articles
Information
Geological Magazine , Volume 122 , Issue 1 , January 1985 , pp. 1 - 4
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1985

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Hallam, A. 1984 a. Pre-Quaternary sea-level changes. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 12, 205–43.Google Scholar
Hallam, A. 1984 b. The causes of mass extinctions. Nature 308, 686–7.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hoffman, A. 1984. Patterns of family extinction: Dependence on definition and geologic time scale. Nature (submitted).Google Scholar
Kitchell, J. A. & Pena, D. 1984. Periodicity of extinctions in the geologic past: Deterministic versus stochastic explanations. Science (in press).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, R. L. & Kahn, J. S. 1962. Statistical Analysis in the Geological Sciences. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Raup, D. M. 1972. Taxonomic diversity during the Phanerozoic. Science 177, 1065–71.Google Scholar
Raup, D. M. & Crick, R. E. 1981. Evolution of single characters in the Jurassic ammonite Kosmoceras. Paleobiology, 7 200–15.Google Scholar
Raup, D. M., Gould, S. J., Schopf, T. J. M. & Simberloff, D. S. 1973. Stochastic models of phylogeny and the evolution of diversity. Journal of Geology 81, 525–42.Google Scholar
Raup, D. M. & Sepkoski, J. J. 1984. Periodicity of extinctions in the geologic past. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 81, 801–5.Google Scholar
Schopf, T. J. M. 1974. Permo-Triassic extinctions: relation to sea-floor spreading. Journal of Geology 82, 129–43.Google Scholar
Sepkoski, J. J. 1982. A compendium of fossil marine families. Milwaukee Public Museum Contributions in Biology and Geology 51, 1–125.Google Scholar
Signor, P. D. 1982. Species richness in the Phanerozoic: Compensating for sampling bias. Geology 10, 625–8.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stanley, S. M. 1984. Temperature and biotic crises in the marine realm. Geology 12, 205–8.Google Scholar
Wallis, W. A. & Roberts, H. V. 1956. Statistics. Glencoe, Illinois: The Free Press.Google Scholar