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OPTIMIZED SHIFTS IN SOWING TIMES OF FIELD CROPS TO THE PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES IN AN AGRO-CLIMATIC ZONE OF PAKISTAN

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 March 2016

MUHAMMAD TOUSIF BHATTI ,
KHALED S. BALKHAIR ,
AMJAD MASOOD  and
SALEEM SARWAR
MUHAMMAD TOUSIF BHATTI
Affiliation:
International Water Management Institute, 12 km Multan Road, Chowk Thokar Niaz Baig, Lahore, Pakistan Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
KHALED S. BALKHAIR*
Affiliation:
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Meteorology, Environment and Arid Land Agriculture, King Abdulaziz University, P.O. Box 80208, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia Center of Excellence in Desalination Technology, King Abdulaziz University, P.O. Box 80200, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
AMJAD MASOOD
Affiliation:
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Meteorology, Environment and Arid Land Agriculture, King Abdulaziz University, P.O. Box 80208, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
SALEEM SARWAR
Affiliation:
SMEC- Engineering General Consultants, 49 D-1, Gulburg III, Lahore, Pakistan
*
§Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]
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Summary

This paper evaluates 30-year (2013–2042) projections of the selected climatic parameters in cotton/wheat agro-climatic zone of Pakistan. A statistical bias correction procedure was adopted to eliminate the systematic errors in output of three selected general circulation models (GCM) under A2 emission scenario. A transfer function was developed between the GCM outputs and the observed time series of the climatic parameters (base period: 1980–2004) and applied to GCM future projections. The predictions detected seasonal shifts in rainfall and increasing temperature trend which in combination can affect the crop water requirements (CWR) at different phonological stages of the two major crops (i.e. wheat and cotton). CROPWAT model is used to optimize the shifts in sowing dates as a climate change adaptation option. The results depict that with reference to the existing sowing patterns, early sowing of wheat and late sowing of cotton will favour decreased CWR of these crops.

Type
Research Article
Information
Experimental Agriculture , Volume 54 , Issue 2 , April 2018 , pp. 201 - 213
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Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 

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