Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rdxmf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T22:36:55.588Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

ASSESSING INNOVATIONS LACKING DEVELOPED SUPPLY MARKETS: A SIMPLE EX ANTE MODEL APPLIED TO ROCK PHOSPHATE USE IN RICE IN WEST AFRICA

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2009

OLAF ERENSTEIN
OLAF ERENSTEIN*
Affiliation:
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), CG Block, NASC Complex, Todapur Road, Pusa, New Delhi-110012, India
*
†E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

New technologies often lack a developed supply market, which makes it problematic to estimate future profitability. This paper develops a simple methodology to circumvent this problem based on the concepts of break-even and expected marginal rate of return. The methodology estimates ex ante a range of target threshold prices: the range of maximum prices that farmers are likely to be willing to pay. Only if the future market is able to supply the new technology within or below the threshold price range is significant adoption likely. The target threshold prices can be used to reorient technology development and delimit recommendation domains. The paper applies the methodology to the case of rock phosphate in upland rice in western Cote d'Ivoire. The paper shows that for rock phosphate to be viable for upland rice farmers its on-farm price should generally not surpass Euro cents 5.7–8.1 per kg of rock phosphate.

Type
Research Article
Information
Experimental Agriculture , Volume 45 , Issue 3 , July 2009 , pp. 287 - 294
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Ahmed, M. M., Sanders, J. H. and Nell, W. T. (2000). New sorghum and millet cultivar introduction in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and research agenda. Agricultural Systems 64:55–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ashby, J. A. (1990). Evaluating Technology with Farmers a handbook. Cali, Colombia: Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT).Google Scholar
Bationo, A., Ayuk, E., Ballo, D. and Kone, M. (1997). Agronomic and economic evaluation of Tilemsi phosphate rock in different agroecological zones of Mali. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 48:179–189.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, E., Gyiele, L. A., Drechsel, P. and Nurah, G. K. (1999). Tools for the economic analysis and evaluation of on-farm trials. IBSRAM Global tool kit series No. 1. Bangkok: IBSRAM.Google Scholar
Boughton, D., Crawford, E., Krause, M. and de Frahan, B. H. (1990). Economic analysis of on-farm trials: a review of approaches and implications for research program design. Staff Paper No. 90-78. Michigan: Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University.Google Scholar
Breman, H., Groot, J. J. R. and van Keulen, H. (2001). Resource limitations in Sahelian agriculture. Global Environmental Change 11:59–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
CIMMYT (1988). From Agronomic Data to Farmer Recommendations: An Economics Training Manual. Mexico, D.F.: CIMMYT.Google Scholar
Diatta, S., Kotchi, V. and Sahrawat, K.L. (2002). Direct and residual effect of rock phosphate from Mali on upland rice grown on acid soil of the humid forest zone in Côte D'Ivoire. In Proceedings of 12th ISCO Conference, May 26–31, 2002. Beijing, China, Volume III, 476–476. Bejing: International Soil Conservation Organisation.Google Scholar
Edwards-Jones, G. and Howells, O. (2001). The origin and hazard of inputs to crop protection in organic farming systems: are they sustainable? Agricultural Systems 67:31–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haque, I. and Lupwayi, N. Z. (1998). Agronomic effectiveness and residual effects of Egyptian and Togo phosphate rocks on clover production. Journal of Plant Nutrition 21:2013–2033.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haque, I., Lupwayi, N. Z. and Ssali, H. (1999). Agronomic effectiveness of unacidulated and partially acidulated Minjingu rockphosphates on Stylosanthes guianensis. Tropical Grasslands 33:159–164.Google Scholar
Hien, V., Kabore, D., Youl, S. and Lowenberg-DeBoer, J. (1997). Stochastic dominance analysis of on-farm-trial data: The riskiness of alternative phosphate sources in Burkina Faso. Agricultural Economics 15:213–221.Google Scholar
Kirk, G. J. D., George, T., Courtois, B. and Senadhira, D. (1998). Opportunities to improve phosphorus efficiency and soil fertility in rainfed lowland and upland rice ecosystems. Field Crops Research 56:73–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kpomblekou, A. and Tabatabai, M. A. (2003). Effect of low-molecular weight organic acids on phosphorus release and phytoavailabilty of phosphorus in phosphate rocks added to soils. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 100:275–284.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuyvenhoven, A., Becht, J. A. and Ruben, R. (1996). Public investment for soil improvement in West Africa: Economic criteria for phosphate rock use to enhance soil fertility management. Paper presented at IAAE Symposium Economics of agro-chemicals, 25–27 April 1996, Wageningen. Wageningen, the Netherlands: Wageningen University, Department of Development Economics.Google Scholar
Manley, R. J., Chotte, J.-L., Masse, D., Laurent, J.-Y. and Feller, C. (2002). Carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus allocation in agro-ecosystems of a West African savanna. III. Plant and soil components under continuous cultivation. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 88:249–269.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mutsaers, H. J. W., Weber, G. K., Walker, P. and Fischer, N. M. (1997). A Field Guide For On-Farm Experimentation. Ibadan, Nigeria: IITA/CTA/ISNAR.Google Scholar
Nagy, J. G., Sanders, J. H. and Ohm, H. W. (1988). Cereal technology interventions for the west African semi-arid tropics. Agricultural Economics 2:197–208.Google Scholar
Orr, S., Sumberg, J., Erenstein, O. and Oswald, A. (2008). Funding international agricultural research and the need to be noticed: A case study of NERICA rice. Outlook on Agriculture 37:159–168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Riley, J. and Alexander, C. J. (1997). Statistical literature for participatory on-farm research. Experimental Agriculture 33:73–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sahrawat, K., Abekoe, M. K. and Diatta, S. (2001). Application of inorganic phosphorus fertilizer. In Sustaining Soil Fertility in West Africa, SSSA Special Publication Number 58, 246–246 (EdsTian, G., Ishida, F. and Keatinge, D.). Madison, USA: Soil Science Society of America and American Society of Agronomy.Google Scholar
Shapiro, B. I. and Sanders, J. H. (1998). Fertilizer use in semiarid West Africa: Profitability and supporting policy. Agricultural Systems 56:467–482.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Somado, E. A., Becker, M., Kuehne, R. F., Sahrawat, K. L. and Vlek, P. L. G. (2003). Combined effects of legumes with rock phosphorus on rice in West Africa. Agronomy Journal 95:1172–1178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Upton, M. (1996). The Economics of Tropical Farming Systems. Wye Studies in Agricultural and Rural Development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Vuuren, W. and Hamilton, J. G. (1992). The payoff of developing a small-scale phosphate mine and beneficiating operation in the Mbeya region of Tanzania. World Development 20:907–918.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vanlauwe, B., Diels, J., Sanginga, N., Carsky, R. J., Deckers, J. and Merckx, R. (2000). Utilization of rock phosphate by crops on a representative toposequence in the Northern Guinea savanna zone of Nigeria: response by maize to previous herbaceous legume cropping and rock phosphate treatments. Soil Biology and Biochemistry 32:2079–2090.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Waigwa, M. W., Othieno, C. O. and Okalebo, J. R. (2003). Phosphorus availability as affected by the application of phosphate rock combined with organic materials to acid soils in Western Kenya. Experimental Agriculture 39:395–407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar