Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-jn8rn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T03:30:08.152Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Sources of long-term economic growth for Turkey, 1880–2005

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 December 2008

SUMRU ALTUG ,
ALPAY FILIZTEKIN  and
ŞEVKET PAMUK
SUMRU ALTUG
Affiliation:
Koç University and CEPR, Economics Department, Rumelifeneri Yolu, Sariyer, Istanbul, 34450, Turkey, [email protected]
ALPAY FILIZTEKIN
Affiliation:
Sabanci University, Orhanli, Tuzla 34956, Istanbul, Turkey, [email protected]
ŞEVKET PAMUK
Affiliation:
Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey, [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

This article considers the sources of long-term economic growth for Turkey over the period 1880–2005. The period in question covers the decline and eventual dissolution of the former Ottoman Empire and the emergence of the new Turkish Republic in 1923. Hence, the article provides a unique look at the growth experience of these two different political and economic regimes. The article examines in detail the evolution of factors that led to growth in output across broad periods, including the post-World War II period and the era of globalization beginning in the 1980s. It also considers output growth in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors separately and allows for the effects of sectoral re-allocation. The lessons from this exercise have important implications for Turkey's future economic performance, for its ability to converge to per capita income levels of developed countries, and for the viability of its current bid for European Union membership.

Type
Research Article
Information
European Review of Economic History , Volume 12 , Issue 3 , December 2008 , pp. 393 - 430
Copyright
Copyright © European Historical Economics Society 2008

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. and Robinson, J. (2001). The colonial origins of comparative development: an empirical investigation. American Economic Review 91, pp. 1369–1401.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adamopoulos, T. and Akyol, A. (2006). Relative stagnation Alla Turca. Manuscript, York University, Canada.Google Scholar
Adrogue, R., Cerisola, M. and Gelos, G. (2006). Brazil's long-term growth performance – trying to explain the puzzle. IMF Working Paper. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.Google Scholar
Altug, S. and Filiztekin, A. (2002). Scale effects, time-varying markups, and the cyclical behavior of primal and dual productivity. Applied Economics 34, 13, pp. 1687–1702.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Altug, S. and Filiztekin, A. (2006). Productivity and growth, 1923–2003. In Altug, S. and Filiztekin, A. (eds.), The Turkish Economy: The Real Economy, Corporate Governance, and Reform. London: Routledge Studies in Middle Eastern Economics.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barro, R. (1991). Economic growth in a cross-section of countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics 106, pp. 407–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barro, R. (2001). Human capital and growth. American Economic Review 91, pp. 12–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barro, R. and Lee, J.-W. (2000). International data on educational attainment: updates and implications. CID Working Paper 42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bosworth, B. and Collins, S. (2007). Accounting for growth: comparing China and India. NBER Working Paper 12943.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bosworth, B., Collins, S. and Virmani, A. (2007). Sources of growth in the Indian economy. Indian Policy Forum 3, pp. 1–50.Google Scholar
Broadberry, S. (1998). How did the United States and Germany overtake Britain? A sectoral analysis of comparative productivity levels, 1870–1990. Journal of Economic History 58, pp. 375–407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brock, W., Durlauf, S. and West, K. (2003). Policy evaluation in uncertain economic environments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1.Google Scholar
Bulutay, T. (1995). Employment, Unemployment, and Wages in Turkey. Ankara: State Institute of Statistics.Google Scholar
Bulutay, T., Tezel, Y. and Yildirim, N. (1974). Turkey's National Income (1924–1974), 2 vols. Ankara: Ankara University Publications.Google Scholar
Cole, H., Ohanian, L., Riascos, A. and Schmitz, J. (2004). Latin America in the rearview mirror. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 351.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collins, S. and Bosworth, B. (1996). Economic growth in east Asia: accumulation or assimilation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, fall.Google Scholar
Denison, E. (1985). Trends in American Economic Growth, 1929–1982. Washington, DC: Brookings.Google Scholar
Derviş, K., De Melo, J. and Robinson, S. (1982). General Equilibrium Models for Development Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Duygan, B. and Guner, N. (2006). Consumption and income inequality. In Altug, S. and Filiztekin, A. (eds.), The Turkish Economy: The Real Economy, Corporate Governance, and Reform. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Eldem, V. (1970). Osmanli Imparatorluğunun Iktisadi Şartlari Hakkinda bir Tetkik, Istanbul: Iş Bankasi Yayinlari.Google Scholar
Filiztekin, A. (2000). Openness and productivity growth in Turkish manufacturing. Sabanci University Discussion Paper Series no. 0104.Google Scholar
de la Fuente, A. and Domenech, R. (2006). Human capital in growth regressions: how much difference does data quality make? Journal of the European Economic Association 4, pp. 1–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Statistical Database, FAOSTAT, Agricultural Data, www.faostat.fao.orgGoogle Scholar
Glaeser, E., La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F. and Schleifer, A. (2004). Do institutions cause growth? Journal of Economic Growth 9, pp. 271–303.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guisan, C. (2005). Human capital, population growth, and industrial development in Mexico and Turkey: a comparative analysis with other OECD countries, 1964–2004. Working Paper, University of Santiago de Compostela, Spain.Google Scholar
Hall, R. and Jones, C. (1999). Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others? Quarterly Journal of Economics 114, pp. 83–116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Helpman, E. (2004). The Mystery of Economic Growth. Cambridge, MA, and London: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Hsieh, C. (2002). What explains the industrial revolution in east Asia? Evidence from the factors markets. American Economic Review 92, pp. 502–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Islam, N. (1995). Growth empirics: a panel data approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, pp. 1127–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ismihan, M. and Metin-Ozcan, K. (2006). The growth performance of the Turkish economy, 1960–2004. Paper presented at the ICE-TEA International Economics Conference, September 10–13, 2006, Ankara.Google Scholar
Kumar, S. and Russell, R. (2002). Technological change, technological catch-up, and capital deepening: relative contributions to growth and convergence. American Economic Review 92, pp. 527–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lains, P. (2003). Catching up to the European core: Portuguese economic growth, 1910–1990. Explorations in Economic History 40, pp. 369–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levine, R. and Renelt, D. (1992). A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions. American Economic Review 82, pp. 942–63.Google Scholar
Maddison, A. (2001). The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris and Washington, DC: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maddison, A. (2003). The World Economy, Historical Statistics. Paris and Washington, DC: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D. and Weil, D. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, pp. 407–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maudos, J., Pastor, J. M. and Serrano, L. (2000). Convergence in OECD countries: technical change, efficiency, and productivity. Applied Economics 32, pp. 757–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
North, D. (1981). Structure and Change in Economic History. New York: W. W. Norton and Co.Google Scholar
Naritomi, J., Soares, R. and Assuncao, J. (2007). Rent seeking and the unveiling of ‘de facto’ institutions: development and colonial heritage within Brazil. NBER Working Paper 13545.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Öniş, Z. (2004). Turgut Özal and his economic legacy: Turkish neo-liberalism in critical perspective. Middle Eastern Studies 40, pp. 113–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Öniş, Z. (2005). The political economy of Turkey's justice and development party. In Yavuz, H. (ed.), The Transformation of Turkish Politics: The Justice and Development Party of Turkey. Salt Lake City: University of Utah Press.Google Scholar
Özel, I. and Pamuk, Ş. (1998). Osmanlidan Cumhuriyete Kişi Başina Üretim ve Milli Gelir. In Sönmez, M. (ed.), 75 Yilda Paranin Serüveni. Istanbul: Tarih Vakfi Yayinlari, pp. 83–90.Google Scholar
Pamuk, Ş. (2006), Estimating economic growth in the Middle East since 1820. Journal of Economic History 66, pp. 809–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pamuk, Ş. (2008a). Agricultural output and productivity growth in Turkey since 1880. In Lains, P. and Pinilla, V. (eds.), Agriculture and Economic Development in Europe since 1870. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Pamuk, Ş. (2008b). Is the glass half full? Economic change in twentieth century Turkey. In Kasaba, R. (ed.), Cambridge History of Modern Turkey. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (forthcoming).Google Scholar
Prados de la Escosura, L. and Roses, J. (2005). The sources of long-run growth in Spain. Paper presented at the Sixth European Historical Economics Society Conference, September 8–9, 2005, Istanbul.Google Scholar
Quah, D. (1996). Empirics for economic growth and convergence. European Economic Review 40, pp. 1353–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rajan, R. and Zingales, L. (2006). The persistence of underdevelopment: institutions, human capital, or constituencies. CEPR Discussion Paper 5867.Google Scholar
Rodrik, D. (1991). Premature liberalization, incomplete stabilization: the Özal decade in Turkey. In Bruno, Michael et al. . (eds.), Lessons of Economic Stabilization and its Aftermath. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A. and Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions rule: the primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth 9, pp. 131–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Saygili, Ş., Cihan, C. and Yurtoglu, H. (2001), Productivity and growth in OECD countries: an assessment of the determinants of productivity. Yapi Kredi Economic Review 12, pp. 49–64.Google Scholar
Saygili, Ş., Cihan, C. and Yurtoglu, H. (2005). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Sermaye Birikimi, Büyüme ve Verimlilik, 1972–2003. State Planning Organization Publication Number 2686, Ankara.Google Scholar
Saygili, Ş., Cihan, C. and Yavan, Z. (2006), Eğitim ve Sürdürülebilir Büyüme: Türkiye Deneyimi, Riskler ve Firsatlar. TÜSIAD.Google Scholar
Sianesi, B. and Van Reenen, J. (2003). The returns to education: macroeconomics. Journal of Economic Surveys 17, pp. 157–200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sirimaneetham, V. and Temple, J. (2006). Macroeconomic policy and the distribution of growth rates. CEPR Discussion Paper 5642.Google Scholar
Solow, R. (1958). Technical change and the aggregate production function. Review of Economics and Statistics 39, pp. 312–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Temel, A. (1998). Gelişme Sürecinde Sektörel Yapida Değişmeler: Imalat Sanayii ve Istihdam. State Planning Organization, Ankara.Google Scholar
Temin, P. (2002). The golden age of European growth reconsidered. European Review of Economic History 6, pp. 3–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ventura, J. (1997). Growth and interdependence. Quarterly Journal of Economics 112, pp. 57–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Young, A. (1995). The tyranny of numbers: confronting the statistical realities of the east Asian growth experience. Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, pp. 641–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zettelmeyer, J. (2006). Growth and reforms in Latin America: a survey of facts and arguments. IMF Working Paper WP/06/210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar