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Looking ahead from the past: The inter-temporal sustainability of Portuguese finances, 1854–1910

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 October 2003

Rui Pedro Esteves
Affiliation:
Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto and CEMPRE
CEMPRE – Centro de Estudos Macroeconómicos e Previsâo – is supported by the Fundaçâo para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the Programa Operacional Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovaçâo (POCTI) of the Quadro Comunitário de Apoio III, which is financed by FEDER and Portuguese funds.
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Abstract

The history of public finances in Portugal from the middle of the nineteenth century to World War I is distinguished by the pursuit of an ambitious programme of public investment in infrastructure, and by the negative financial consequences this elicited, culminating in the 1892 default. In this article we approach the Portuguese financial history of this period with a relatively new methodology for evaluating financial sustainability, which emphasises the inter-temporal nature of government budgeting. The results obtained allow us to quantify the distance that separated Portuguese finances from a sustainable path throughout the period. Although the generational imbalance of Portuguese finances at the time seems massive in the context of today's benchmarks, its economic and financial impact should have been more limited, given the government's relatively low weight in the economy and the favourable demographic pattern.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2003 Cambridge University Press

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