Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gbm5v Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T03:18:08.409Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The long decline of a leading economy: GDP in central and northern Italy, 1300–1913

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 November 2010

PAOLO MALANIMA*
Affiliation:
Institute of Studies on Mediterranean Societies (Naples) Italian National Research Council (CNR), [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to present the statistical reconstruction of a series of per capita output in central–northern Italy between 1300 and 1913. The various phases of both the statistical procedure and the results are presented and discussed. From the Renaissance until the 1880s, when modern growth starts, the curve of per capita GDP is downward bent. Output series together with three robustness tests, are collected in the Appendices.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © European Historical Economics Society 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

A'Hearn, B. (2003). Il benessere dell'Italia settentrionale nel secolo e mezzo precedente l'Unità. Rivista di Storia Economica, n.s., 19, pp. 297314.Google Scholar
Alfani, G. (2007). Population and environment in northern Italy during the sixteenth century. Population 62 (4), pp. 559–96.Google Scholar
Allen, R. C. (2000). Economic structure and agricultural productivity in Europe, 1300–1800. European Review of Economic History 4, pp. 126.Google Scholar
Allen, R. C. (2001). The Great Divergence in European wages and prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War. Explorations in Economic History 38, pp. 411–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alvarez Nogal, C. and Prados de la Escosura, L. (2006). La decadenza spagnola nell'Età Moderna: una revisione quantitativa. Rivista di Storia Economica 22, pp. 5989.Google Scholar
Alvarez Nogal, C. and Prados de la Escosura, L. (2007a). Searching for the roots of retardation: Spain in European perspective. 1500–1850. Working Papers in Economic History, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.Google Scholar
Alvarez Nogal, C. and Prados de la Escosura, L. (2007b). The decline of Spain (1500–1850): conjectural estimates. European Review of Economic History 11, pp. 319–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Assaad, R. and El-Hamidi, F. (2002). Female labour supply in Egypt: participation and hours of work. In Sirageldin, I. (ed.), Human Capital: Population Economics in the Middle East. Cairo: Cairo Press, pp. 210–30.Google Scholar
Bachi, R. (1914). I lineamenti della recente evoluzione dell'economia italiana. In Bachi, R., L'Italia economica nell'anno 1913. Città di Castello: Lapi.Google Scholar
Barberi, B. (1961). I consumi nel primo secolo dell'Unità d'Italia 1861–1960. Milan: Giuffrè.Google Scholar
Battilani, P. (2010). The ‘Bel Paese’ and the transition to a service economy. Journal of Modern Italian History, pp. 21–40.Google Scholar
Battistini, F. (1992). La diffusione della gelsibachicoltura nell'Italia centro-settentrionale: un tentativo di ricostruzione. Società e Storia 15, pp. 393400.Google Scholar
Battistini, F. (1997). La produzione e il commercio della seta greggia in Italia alla fine del XVIII secolo. Società e Storia 19, pp. 889907.Google Scholar
Battistini, F. (2003). L'industria della seta in Italia nell'età moderna. Bologna: Il Mulino.Google Scholar
Battistini, F. (2007). Seta ed economia in Italia. Il prodotto 1500–1930. Rivista di Storia Economica, n.s., 23, pp. 283318.Google Scholar
Belfanti, C. M. (1996). The proto-industrial heritage: forms of rural proto-industry in northern Italy in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. In Ogilvie, S. C. and Cerman, M. (eds.), European Proto-industrialization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 155–70.Google Scholar
Beloch, K. J. (1937–1961). Bevölkerungsgeschichte Italiens. Berlin and Leipzig: De Gruyter.Google Scholar
Bosker, E., Brakman, S., Garretsen, H., De Jong, H. and Schramm, M. (2008). Ports, plagues and politics: explaining Italian city growth 1300–1861. European Review of Economic History 12, pp. 97131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braudel, F. (1966). La Méditerranée et le monde méditerranéen à l'epoque de Philippe II, 2nd edn. Paris: Colin.Google Scholar
Capasso, S. and Malanima, P. (2007). Economy and population in Italy 1300–1913. Popolazione e Storia 2, pp. 1540.Google Scholar
Carreras, A. (2009). Problemi di stima del Pil nell'Europa moderna: il caso spagnolo. Studi Storici 50, pp. 653–94.Google Scholar
Ciccarelli, C. and Fenoaltea, S. (2009). La produzione industriale delle regioni d'Italia, 1861–1913: una ricostruzione quantitativa. I. Le industrie non manifatturiere. Rome: Banca d'Italia.Google Scholar
Cipolla, C. M. (1952). The decline of Italy: the case of a fully matured economy. Economic History Review, II s., 5, pp. 178–87.Google Scholar
Clark, G. (2007). A Farewell to Alms. A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Conti (I) economici dell'Italia, 1 (1991). Rey, G. and Vitali, O. (eds.); 2 (1992). Federico, G., Fenoaltea, S., Marolla, M., Roccas, M., Vitali, O., Zamagni, V., Battilani, P. and Rey, G. (eds.); 3 (2002). Federico, G., Fenoaltea, S., Bardini, C., Zamagni, V., Battilani, P. and Rey, G. (eds.). Rome and Bari: Laterza.Google Scholar
Correnti, C. and Maestri, P. (I, 1857–58; II, 1864). Annuario statistico italiano. Turin: Tipografia letteraria.Google Scholar
Crafts, N. F. R. (1985). British Economic Growth During the Industrial Revolution. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Crafts, N. F. R. and Harley, C. K. (1992). Output growth and the British Industrial Revolution: a restatement of the Crafts-Harley view. Economic History Review, II s., 45, pp. 703–30.Google Scholar
Daniele, V. and Malanima, P. (2007). Il prodotto delle regioni e il divario Nord-Sud in Italia (1861–2004). Rivista di Politica Economica 97, pp. 149.Google Scholar
Daniele, V. and Malanima, P. (forthcoming). The Changing Occupational Structure in Italy 1861–2001. International network for the comparative history of occupational structure (INCHOS), coordinated by Dr L. Shaw-Taylor (University of Cambridge) and Prof. O. Saito (Hitotsubashi University).Google Scholar
Dasgupta, P. and Bishwanath, G. (2005). Female Labour Supply in Rural India: an Econometric Analysis. Delhi: Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi University.Google Scholar
Del Panta, L., Livi Bacci, M., Pinto, G. and Sonnino, E. (1996). La popolazione italiana dal Medioevo a oggi. Rome and Bari: Laterza.Google Scholar
Dessing, M. (2002). Labour supply, the family and poverty: the S-shaped labor supply curve. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 49, pp. 433–58.Google Scholar
Ercolani, P. (1969). Documentazione statistica di base. In Fuà, G. (ed.), Lo sviluppo economico d'Italia, III. Milan: Franco Angeli.Google Scholar
Evers, M., Mooij, R. A. de and Vuuren, D. J. van (2008). The wage elasticity of labour supply: a synthesis of empirical estimates. De Economist 156, pp. 2543.Google Scholar
Federico, G. (1994). Il filo d'oro. L'industria mondiale della seta dalla Restaurazione alla grande crisi. Venice: Marsilio.Google Scholar
Federico, G. (2002). The world economy 0–2000 AD: a review article. European Review of Economic History 6, pp. 111–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Federico, G. (2003a). L'agricoltura italiana: successo o fallimento? In Ciocca, P. and Toniolo, G. (eds.), Storia economica d'Italia, 3.1. Rome and Bari: Laterza, pp. 99136.Google Scholar
Federico, G. (2003b). Le nuove stime della produzione agricola italiana, 1860–1910: primi risultati ed implicazioni. Rivista di Storia Economica, n.s., 19, pp. 359–82.Google Scholar
Federico, G. and Malanima, P. (2004). Progress, decline, growth: product and productivity in Italian agriculture, 1000–2000. Economic History Review 57 (3), pp. 437–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Felice, E. (2007). Divari regionali e intervento pubblico. Bologna: Il Mulino.Google Scholar
Felloni, G. (1999). Il principe ed il credito in Italia tra medioevo ed età moderna. In Felloni, G., Scritti di storia economica. Genoa: Società Ligure di Storia Patria, I, pp. 253–73.Google Scholar
Fenoaltea, S. (2001). La crescita industriale delle regioni d'Italia dall'Unità alla Grande Guerra: una prima stima per gli anni censuari. Quaderni dell'Ufficio Ricerche storiche (Banca d'Italia) 1.Google Scholar
Fenoaltea, S. (2002). Production and consumption in post-Unification Italy: new evidence, new conjectures. Rivista di Storia Economica, n.s., 18, pp. 251–99.Google Scholar
Fenoaltea, S. (2003a). La formazione dell'Italia industriale: consensi, dissensi, ipotesi. Rivista di Storia Economica, n.s., 19, pp. 341–58.Google Scholar
Fenoaltea, S. (2003b). Lo sviluppo dell'industria dall'Unità alla Grande Guerra: una sintesi provvisoria. In Ciocca, P. and Toniolo, G. (eds.), Storia economica d'Italia, 3.1. Rome and Bari: Laterza.Google Scholar
Fenoaltea, S. (2003c). Notes on the rate of industrial growth in Italy, 1861–1913. Journal of Economic History 63, pp. 695735.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fenoaltea, S. (2005a). La crescita economica dell'Italia postunitaria: le nuove serie storiche. Rivista di Storia Economica, n.s., 21, pp. 91121.Google Scholar
Fenoaltea, S. (2005b). The growth of the Italian economy, 1861–1913: preliminary second-generation estimates. European Review of Economic History, 9, pp. 273312.Google Scholar
Fenoaltea, S. (2006). L'economia italiana dall'Unità alla Grande Guerra. Rome and Bari: Laterza.Google Scholar
Fenoaltea, S. (forthcoming). Peeking forward: the growth of the Italian economy, 1861–1913.Google Scholar
Fornasin, A. (1999). Il mercato dei grani di Udine. Indagine per una storia dei prezzi in Friuli (secoli XVI-XVIII). Nota di Ricerca no. 4, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche dell'Università degli Studi di Udine.Google Scholar
Galloway, P. (1994). A reconstruction of the population of North Italy from 1650 to 1881 using annual inverse projection with comparisons to England, France and Sweden. European Journal of Population 10, pp. 223–74.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ghetti, L. (1816). Inventiva d'una imposizione di nuova gravezza. In Roscoe, G., Vita di Lorenzo De’ Medici detto il Magnifico. Pisa: N. Capurro, I, appendix n. 1.Google Scholar
Giorgetti, G. (1974). Contadini e proprietari nell'Italia moderna. Rapporti di produzione e contratti agrari dal XVI secolo a oggi. Turin: Einaudi.Google Scholar
Goldsmith, R. W. (1987). Pre-modern Financial Systems. A Historical Comparative Study. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldthwaite, R. A. (1975). I prezzi del grano a Firenze dal XIV al XVI secolo. Quaderni Storici 28, pp. 537.Google Scholar
Goldthwaite, R. A. (1980). The Building of the Renaissance Florence. Baltimore and London: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Herlihy, D. and Klapisch-Zuber, C. (1978). Les Toscans et leurs familles. Une étude du catasto florentin de 1427. Paris: Presses Universitaires de la Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques.Google Scholar
ISTAT (1976). Sommario di statistiche storiche dell'Italia 1861–1975. Rome: ISTAT.Google Scholar
Jackson, R. V. (1985). Growth and deceleration in English agriculture, 1660–1790. Economic History Review, II s., 38, pp. 333–51.Google Scholar
Lo Cascio, E. and Malanima, P. (2009). GDP in pre-modern agrarian economies (1–1820 AD): a revision of the estimates. Rivista di Storia Economica, n.s., 25, pp. 387415.Google Scholar
Lopez, R. S. and Miskimin, H. A. (1962). The economic depression of the Renaissance. Economic History Review, II s., 14, pp. 408–26.Google Scholar
Maddison, A. (1991). A revised estimate of Italian economic growth, 1861–1989. Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quaterly Review, 177, pp. 225–41.Google Scholar
Maddison, A. (2001). The World Economy. A Millennial Perspective. Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
Maddison, A. (2003). The World Economy: Historical Statistics. Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
Maddison, A. (2007). Contours of the World Economy, 1–2030 AD. Essays in Macro-Economic History. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maic (1866). Statistica del Regno d'Italia. Popolazione. Censimento generale al 31 dicembre 1861. Florence: Tipografia Letteraria.Google Scholar
Maic (1876). Statistica del Regno d'Italia. Popolazione classificata per professioni. Censimento 31 dicembre 1871. Rome: Regia Tipografia.Google Scholar
Malanima, P. (1976). Aspetti di mercato e prezzi del grano e della segale a Pisa dal 1548 al 1818. Ricerche di storia moderna. Pisa: Pacini, I, pp. 288327.Google Scholar
Malanima, P. (1994). Italian economic performance: output and income 1600–1800. In Maddison, A. and Van der Wee, H. (eds.), Economic Growth and Structural Change. Atti dell'XI Congresso internazionale di storia economica. Milan: Università Bocconi, pp. 5970.Google Scholar
Malanima, P. (2002). L'economia italiana. Dalla crescita medievale alla crescita contemporanea. Bologna: Il Mulino.Google Scholar
Malanima, P. (2003). Measuring the Italian economy 1300–1861. Rivista di Storia Economica 19, pp. 265–95.Google Scholar
Malanima, P. (2005). Urbanisation and the Italian economy during the last millennium. European Review of Economic History 9, pp. 97122.Google Scholar
Malanima, P. (2006a). An age of decline: product and income in eighteenth-nineteenth century Italy. Rivista di Storia Economica, n.s., 22, pp. 91133.Google Scholar
Malanima, P. (2006b). Alle origini della crescita in Italia 1820–1913. Rivista di Storia Economica, n.s., 22, pp. 306–30.Google Scholar
Malanima, P. (2007). Wages, productivity and working time in Italy 1300–1913. Journal of European Economic History, 36, pp. 127–74.Google Scholar
Malanima, P. (2009). Pre-modern European Economy. One Thousand Years (10th-19th Centuries). Leiden and Boston: Brill.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Malanima, P. (2010). Urbanisation 1700–1870. In Broadberry, S. and O'Rourke, K. (eds.), The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe, vol. I. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 235–63.Google Scholar
Malanima, P. and Zamagni, V. (2010). 150 years of the Italian economy, 1861–2010. Journal of Modern Italian Studies 15, pp. 120.Google Scholar
Menzione, A. (1986). Agricoltura e proprietà fondiaria. In Braudel, F. (ed.), Prato. Storia di una città, vol. 2, Guarini, E. Fasano (ed.), Un microcosmo in movimento (1494–1815). Florence: Le Monnier, pp. 133216.Google Scholar
Messori, F. (1992). Economia del mercato dei prodotti agro-alimentari. Bologna: Edagricole.Google Scholar
Munro, J. (2004). Before and after the Black Death: money, prices and wages in 14th century England. Department of Economics, University of Toronto, Working Paper 24.Google Scholar
Ohtake, F., Takenaka, S. and Yasui, K. (2006). Wage elasticity of labor supply: a survey-based experimental approach. Mimeo.Google Scholar
Parenti, G. (1939). Prime ricerche sulla rivoluzione dei prezzi a Firenze. Florence: CYA.Google Scholar
Parenti, G. (1942). Prezzi e mercato del grano a Siena. Florence: CYA.Google Scholar
Prados de la Escosura, L. (1988). Da imperio a nación. Crecimiento y atraso economico en España (1780–1930). Madrid: Alianza Editorial.Google Scholar
Prados de la Escosura, L. (1989). La estimacion indirecta de la produccion agraria en el siglo XIX: replica a Simpson. Revista de Historia Economica 7, pp. 703–17.Google Scholar
Prados de la Escosura, L. (2000). International comparisons of real product, 1820–1990: an alternative data set. Explorations in Economic History 37, pp. 141.Google Scholar
Ranis, G. (1997). The micro-economics of ‘surplus labor’. Economic Growth Center, Yale University.Google Scholar
Rey, G. M. (2003). Nuove stime di contabilità nazionale (1891–1911). Rivista di Storia economica, n.s., 19, pp. 315–40.Google Scholar
Romano, R. (1971). Tra due crisi: l'Italia del Rinascimento. Turin: Einaudi.Google Scholar
Romano, R. (1980). L'Europa tra due crisi. Tra XIV e XVII secolo. Turin: Einaudi.Google Scholar
Rutenburg, V. (1988). A proposito del prodotto lordo fiorentino, un progetto d'imposta del primo Quattrocento. In Guarducci, A. (ed.), Prodotto lordo e finanza pubblica secoli XIII-XIX. Florence: Le Monnier, pp. 865–70.Google Scholar
Sella, D. (2008). Peasant strategies for survival in northern Italy, XVI-XVII centuries. Journal of European Economic History 37 (2–3), pp. 455–69.Google Scholar
Sharif, M. (1991). Poverty and the forward-falling labor supply function: a microeconomic analysis. World Development 19, pp. 1075–93.Google Scholar
Van Zanden, J.-L. (2001). Early modern economic growth: a survey of the European economy, 1500–1800. In Prak, M. (ed.), Early Modern Capitalism. Economic and Social Change in Europe, 1400–1800. London and New York: Routledge, pp. 6887.Google Scholar
Van Zanden, J.-L. (2005). Una estimacion del crecimiento económico en la Edad Moderna. Investigaciones de Historia Economica 1, pp. 938.Google Scholar
Van Zanden, J.-L. (2009). The Long Road to the Industrial Revolution. The European Economy in a Global Perspective, 1000–1800. Leiden and Boston: Brill.Google Scholar
Vitali, O. (1970). Aspetti dello sviluppo economico italiano alla luce della ricostruzione della popolazione attiva. Rome: Istituto di Demografia.Google Scholar
Vitali, O. (1991). Metodi di stima impiegati nelle serie storiche di contabilità nazionale per il periodo 1890–1970. In Rey, G. (ed.), I conti economici dell'Italia, vol.1. Rome and Bari: Laterza, pp. 53262.Google Scholar
Von Ende, E. and Weiss, T. (1993). Consumption of farm output and economic growth in the Old Northwest, 1800–1860. Journal of Economic History 53, pp. 308–18.Google Scholar
Voth, H. J. (1998). Time and work in eighteenth century London. Journal of Economic History 58, pp. 2958.Google Scholar
Voth, H. J. (2001). Time and Work in England 1750–1830. Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
Vries, J. de (1984). European Urbanization 1500–1800. London: Methuen.Google Scholar
Vries, J. de (1994). The Industrious Revolution and the Industrial Revolution. Journal of Economic History 54, pp. 249–70.Google Scholar
Vries, J. de (2008). Industrious Revolution. Consumer Behavior and the Household Economy 1650 to Present. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Wold, H. (1952). Demand Analysis. A Study in Econometrics. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Zamagni, V. (1993). The Economic History of Italy 1860–1990. Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar