Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dsjbd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T04:06:42.378Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Number of dementia sufferers in Europe between the years 2000 and 2050

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 April 2020

Johannes Wancata ,
M. Musalek ,
R. Alexandrowicz  and
M. Krautgartner
Johannes Wancata*
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, University of Vienna, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, 1090Vienna, Austria
M. Musalek
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, University of Vienna, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, 1090Vienna, Austria
R. Alexandrowicz
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, University of Vienna, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, 1090Vienna, Austria
M. Krautgartner
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, University of Vienna, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, 1090Vienna, Austria
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

Several authors have pointed out that in the next few decades dementia will affect a considerably increasing number of the elderly. To our knowledge there exist no calculations of the number of demented persons for the whole European region. We made calculations on the number of dementia cases for the period 2000–2050 based on the population projections of the United Nations. For this purpose, we used the results of several meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. The number of prevalent dementia cases in the year 2000 was 7.1 million. Within the next 50 years, this number will rise to about 16.2 million dementia sufferers. The number of new dementia cases per year will increase from about 1.9 million in the year 2000 to about 4.1 million in the year 2050. Contrarily, the working-age population will considerably decrease during the next 50 years. In the year 2000, 7.1 million dementia cases faced 493 million persons in working-age. This equals a ratio of 69.4 persons in working-age per one demented person. Until the year 2050, this ratio will decrease to only 21.1. Thus, the financial and emotional burden placed by dementia on the working-age population will markedly rise.

Keywords

DementiaAlzheimerProjectionsEpidemiology
Type
Original article
Information
European Psychiatry , Volume 18 , Issue 6 , October 2003 , pp. 306 - 313
Copyright
Copyright © Éditions scientifiques et médicales Elsevier SAS 2003

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bickel, H. Pflegebedürftigkeit im Alter. Ergebnisse einer populationsbezogenen retrospektiven Längsschnittstudie, 58. 1996. p. 56-62 Gesundh-Wes (Sonderheft 1).Google Scholar
Bickel, H. Demenzsyndrom und Alzheimer Krankheit. Eine Schätzung des Krankenbestandes und der jährlichen Neuerkrankungen in Deutschland, 62. 2000. p. 211-8 Gesundh-Wes.Google Scholar
Breitner, J, Gau, B, Welsh, K, Plassman, B, McDonald, W, Helms, M, et al. Inverse association of anti-inflammatory treatments and Alzheimer’s disease: initial results of a co-twin control study. Neurology 1994;44:227-32.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Erkinjuntti, T, Ostbye, T, Steenhuis, R, Hachinski, V. The effect of different diagnostic criteria on the prevalence of dementia. N Engl J Med 1997;337:1667-74.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fratiglioni, L, Launer, L, Andersen, K, Breteler, M, Copeland, J, Dartigues, J-F, et al. A incidence of dementia and major subtypes in Europe: a collaborative study of population-based cohorts. Neurology 2000;54(Suppl 5):S10-5.Google ScholarPubMed
Gao, S, Hendrie, HC, Hall, KS, Hui, S. The relationships between age, sex, and the incidence of dementia and Alzheimer disease. Arch Gen Psychiatry 1998;55:809-15.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hallauer, J, Schons, M, Smala, A, Berger, K. Untersuchung von Krankheitskosten bei Patienten mit Alzheimer-Erkrankung. Gesundheitsökonomie Qualitätsmanagement 2000;5:73-9.Google Scholar
Hebert, L, Becket, L, Scherr, P, Evans, D. Annual incidence of Alzheimer disease in the United States projected to the years 2000 through 2050. Alzheimer Dis Assoc Disord 2001;15:169-73.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hofman, A, Rocca, WA, Brayne, C, Breteler, MMB, Clarke, M, Cooper, B, et al. The prevalence of dementia in Europe: a collaborative study of 1980–1990 findings. Intern J Epidemiol 1991;20:736-48.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hy, L, Keller, D. Prevalence of AD among whites: a summary by levels of severity. Neurology 2000;55:198-204.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Jorm, AF, Jolley, D. The incidence of dementia. A meta-analysis. Neurology 1998;51:728-33.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Jorm, AF, Korten, AE, Henderson, AS. The prevalence of dementia: a quantitative integration of the literature. Acta Psychiat Scand 1987;76:465-79.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Launer, LJ, Andersen, K, Dewey, ME, Letenneur, L, Ott, A, Amaducci, LA, et al. A Rates and risk factors for dementia and Alzheimer’s disease. Results from EURODEM pooled analyses. Neurology 1999;52:78-84.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lobo, A, Launer, L, Fratiglioni, L, Andersen, K, Di Carlo, A, Breteler, M, et al. Prevalence of dementia and major subtypes in Europe: a collaborative study of population-based cohorts. Neurology 2000;54(Suppl 5):S4-9.Google ScholarPubMed
MacNamee, P, Bond, J, Buck, D. Costs of dementia in England and Wales. Brit J Psychiatry 2001;179:261-6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKhann, G, Drachman, D, Folstein, M, Katzman, R, Price, D, Stadlan, M. Clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease: report of the NINCDS-ADRDA work group under the auspices of Department of Health and Human Services Task Force on Alzheimer’s disease. Neurology 1984;34:939-44.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Monteiro, I, Boksay, I, Auer, S, Torossian, C, Ferris, S, Reisberg, B. Addition of a frequency-weighted score to the Behavioral Pathology in Alzheimer’s Disease Rating Scale: the BEHAVE-AD-FW: methodology and reliability. Eur Psychiatry 2001;16(Suppl 1):5s-24s.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Österreichisches Statistisches Zentralamt. Demographisches Jahrbuch Österreichs 1998. Wien: Kommissionsverlag; 2000.Google Scholar
Paganini-Hill, W, Henderson, V. Estrogen replacement therapy and risk of Alzheimer’s disease. Arch Intern Med 1996;156:2212-7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prince, M. The need for research on dementia in developing countries. Tropical Med Intern Health 1997;2:993-1000.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ritchie, K, Kildea, D. Is senile dementia “age-related” or “ageing-related”?—evidence from meta-analysis of dementia prevalence in the oldest old. Lancet 1995;346:931-4.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Robert, P, Allain, H. Clinical management of agitation in the elderly with tiapride. Eur Psychiatry 2001;16(Suppl 1):42s-7s.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rocca, WA, Hofman, A, Brayne, C, Breteler, MMB, Clarke, M, Copeland, JRM, et al. Frequency and distribution of Alzheimer’s disease in Europe: a collaborative study of 1980–1990 prevalence findings. Ann Neurology 1991;30:381-90.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schneider, J, Murray, J, Banerjee, S, Mann, A. EUROCARE: a cross-national study of co-resident spouse carers for people with Alzheimer’s disease. Intern J Geriatr Psychiatry 1999;14:651-61.3.0.CO;2-B>CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
United Nations Population Division. World population prospects—the 2000 revision, vols. I, II, III, 2001 New York: UN.Google Scholar
Wancata, J, Kaup, B, Krautgartner, M. Die Entwicklung der Demenzerkrankungen in Österreich vom Jahr 1951 bis zum Jahr 2050. Wien Klin Wochenschr 2001;113:172-80.Google Scholar
Wimo, A, Karlsson, G, Sandman, PO, Corder, L, Winblad, B. Cost of illness due to dementia in Sweden. Intern J Geriatr Psychiatry 1996;12:857-61.3.0.CO;2-5>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
World Health Organisation. Health and ageing: a discussion paper. Geneva: WHO; 2001.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.