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Pax populi? An analysis of the conflict resolution potential of referendums on self-determination

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 May 2022

Micha Germann Open the ORCID record for Micha Germann [Opens in a new window]
Micha Germann*
Affiliation:
Department of Politics, Languages & International Studies, University of Bath, Bath, UK
*
Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

The international community increasingly promotes referendums as it intervenes in self-determination conflicts around the world. However, the ability of self-determination referendums to bring about peace remains uncertain. This paper develops the argument that the conflict resolution potential of self-determination referendums is conditional, depending on whether or not they are held under the mutual agreement of the relevant minority and majority groups. When mutually agreed, self-determination referendums are likely to generate shared perceptions of fair decision-making and thereby increase chances for peace. By contrast, unilateral self-determination referendums are likely to increase ethnic grievances and, therefore, the risk of separatist violence. I find support for this argument in a global statistical analysis, short case studies, and a survey experiment. Overall, this study suggests that self-determination referendums can make a positive contribution to peace, but only if the conditions for a partial compromise on a referendum, including its terms, are ripe.

Keywords

referendumsself-determinationprocedural fairnessethno-nationalismcivil warseparatism
Type
Research Article
Information
European Political Science Review , Volume 14 , Issue 3 , August 2022 , pp. 403 - 423
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of European Consortium for Political Research

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