¹ Nuclear aspirants, broadly, are states that have ‘considered, developed, abandoned, or acquired nuclear weapons programs’, especially after the establishment of the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Solingen, Etel, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2007), p. 3Google Scholar. On the cases and costs of proliferation, see Juneau, Thomas and Razavi, Sam, ‘Costly gains: a cost-benefit assessment of Iran's nuclear program’, The Nonproliferation Review, 25:1–2 (2018), pp. 69–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Jervis, Robert, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1989), p. 3Google Scholar; Miller, Nicholas L., ‘The secret success of nonproliferation sanctions’, International Organization, 68:4 (2014), pp. 913–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Narang, Vipin, ‘Strategies of nuclear proliferation: How states pursue the bomb’, International Security, 41:3 (2016/17), p. 120Google Scholar; and Levite, Ariel E., ‘Never say never again: Nuclear reversal revisited’, International Security, 27:3 (2002/03), p. 62Google Scholar.

² Some examples from the Cold War period include Taiwan and South Korea. While neither completely dismantled their facilities to the point that it is impossible to weaponise their programmes today, both rolled back their capabilities under US pressure in the 1970s and 1980s. See Hersman, Rebecca K. C. and Peters, Robert, ‘Nuclear U-turns’, The Nonproliferation Review, 13:3 (2006), pp. 546–9CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

³ For a review of works criticising the tendency to study nuclear proliferation and nonproliferation as separate issues, see Volpe, Tristan A., ‘Atomic leverage: Compellence with nuclear latency’, Security Studies, 26:3 (2017), p. 519CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁴ Thurber, Ches, ‘A step short of the bomb: Explaining the strategy of nuclear hedging’, Journal of Public and International Affairs, 2 (2011), p. 46Google Scholar; Einhorn, Robert J., ‘Identifying nuclear aspirants and their pathways to the bomb’, The Nonproliferation Review, 13:3 (2006), pp. 496–7CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁵ Council on Foreign Relations, ‘North Korea's Weapons Programs’, available at: {https://www.cfr.org/event/north-koreas-weapons-programs} accessed 15 April 2019.

⁶ Jeffrey Lewis and Dave Schmerler, ‘North Korean missile base at Yeongjeo-dong’, Arms Control Wonk, available at: {https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1206442/north-korean-missile-base-at-yeongjeo-dong/} accessed 13 April 2019; Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu, ‘North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear scientific research center: Crane seen at the experimental light water reactor’, 38 North, available at: {https://www.38north.org/2019/04/yongbyon040519/} accessed 13 April 2019.

⁷ David Brunnstrom, ‘North Korea may have made more nuclear bombs, but threat reduced: Study’, Reuters, available at: {https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-nuclear-study/north-korea-may-have-made-more-nuclear-bombs-but-threat-reduced-study-idUSKCN1Q10EL} accessed 13 April 2019.

⁸ For an overview, see Leon V. Sigal, ‘Breaking the news frame of Trump's nuclear diplomacy’, 38 North, available at: {https://www.38north.org/2018/06/lsigal062118/} accessed 13 April 2019.

⁹ See, for example, Olivia Enos, ‘After Failed Summit in Hanoi: Where Do We Go from Here?’, The Heritage Foundation, available at: {https://www.heritage.org/asia/commentary/after-failed-summit-hanoi-where-do-we- go-here} accessed 15 April 2019; Dennis P. Halpin, ‘Almost a month on, what did the Singapore summit achieve?’, NK News, available at: {https://www.nknews.org/2018/07/almost-a-month-on-what-did-the-singapore-summit-achieve/} accessed 15 April 2019; Jonathan Marcus, ‘Trump Kim summit: What did it actually achieve?’, BBC, available at: {https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44484322} accessed 15 April 2019; and Daniel R. Russel, ‘A historic breakthrough or a historic blunder in Singapore?’, Foreign Affairs, available at: {https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2018-06-12/historic-breakthrough-or-historic-blunder-singapore} accessed 15 April 2019.

¹⁰ Joshua Berlinger and Hilary Whiteman, ‘The pledge to halt missile tests comes after a busy year of launches by North Korea’, CNN, available at: {https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/06/asia/north-korea-missile-tests-2017-intl/index.html} accessed 13 April 2019.

¹¹ Justin McCurry, ‘North Korea halts nuclear and missile tests ahead of planned Trump summit’, The Guardian, available at: {https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/20/north-korea-suspends-nuclear-missile-tests} accessed 26 July 2018; ‘North Korea begins dismantling key facilities at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station’, 38 North, available at: {https://www.38north.org/2018/07/sohae072318/} accessed 26 July 2018.

¹² Siegfried S. Hecker, ‘Why insisting on a North Korea nuclear declaration up front is a big mistake’, 38 North, available at: {https://www.38north.org/2018/11/shecker112818/} accessed 13 April 2019.

¹³ Brunnstrom, ‘North Korea may have made more nuclear bombs’.

¹⁴ Among others, see Sagan, Scott D., ‘Why do states build nuclear weapons?: Three models in search of a bomb’, International Security, 21:3 (1996/1997), p. 63CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Miller, Nicholas L., ‘Nuclear dominoes: a self-defeating prophecy?’, Security Studies, 23:1 (2014), pp. 33–73CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Hymans, Jacques E. C., The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Solingen, Nuclear Logics; Rublee, Maria Rost, Nonproliferation Norms: Why States Choose Nuclear Restraint (Athens, GA: University of Georgia Press, 2009)Google Scholar; Spaniel, William, Bargaining over the Bomb: The Successes and Failures of Nuclear Negotiations (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2019)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Levite, ‘Never say never again’.

¹⁵ Wiseman, Geoffrey, ‘Introduction’, in Wiseman, Geoffrey (ed.), Isolate or Engage: Adversarial States, US Foreign Policy and Public Diplomacy (Stanford: Stanford University Press), p. 3Google Scholar.

¹⁶ Fred Kaplan, ‘Rolling blunder: How the Bush administration let North Korea get nukes’, Washington Monthly, available at: {http://washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/may-2004/rolling-blunder-2/} accessed 13 July 2018; Robert McMahon, ‘Negotiating with Hostile States’, Council of Foreign Relations, available at: {https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/negotiating-hostile-states} accessed 13 July 2018.

¹⁷ United States Senate, ‘Testimony of Robert Carlin Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’, available at: {https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Carlin_Testimony.pdf} accessed 12 August 2018.

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²² According to Wyn Bowen and Matthew Moran, ‘the fact that the concept is regularly described in political and diplomatic discourse without mention of the specific term “hedging” is perhaps indicative of a certain confusion with regard to … proliferation behaviour. This vocabulary comprises a number of overlapping terms and concepts … that are frequently used interchangeably and without discrimination.’ Bowen, Wyn and Moran, Matthew, ‘Iran's nuclear programme: a case in hedging?’, Contemporary Security Policy, 35:1 (2014), p. 27CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See also Mark Fitzpatrick, ‘Nuclear latency with an attitude’, International Institute for Strategic Studies, available at: {http://www.iiss.org/en/politics%20and%20strategy/blogsections/2014-d2de/october-931b/nuclear-latency-c8a6} accessed 18 June 2018.

²³ Levite, ‘Never say never again’, p. 69; Narang, ‘Strategies of nuclear proliferation’, pp. 117–20. See also Reiss, Mitchell, ‘The nuclear tipping point: Why states reconsider their nuclear choices’, in Campbell, Kurt M., Einhorn, Robert J., and Reiss, Mitchell B. (eds), The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider their Nuclear Choices (Washington, DC: Brookings Institute Press, 2004), pp. 3–17Google Scholar.

²⁴ As Mark Bell points out, nuclear acquisition is ‘defined as the point at which the state acquires the technological capability to use nuclear weapons in the way the state envisages using them’. Bell, Mark S., ‘Beyond emboldenment: How acquiring nuclear weapons can change foreign policy’, International Security, 40:1 (2015), p. 92CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Bell, Mark S., ‘Nuclear opportunism: a theory of how states use nuclear weapons in international politics’, Journal of Strategic Studies, 42:1 (2019), p. 10CrossRefGoogle Scholar. North Korea still does not possess the required reentry technologies for its ICBMs to strike US mainland, assuming that is its goal for developing nuclear weapons. For more on the state of North Korea's nuclear capabilities, see Kristensen, Hans M. and Norris, Robert S., ‘North Korean nuclear capabilities, 2018’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 74:1 (2018), pp. 46–8CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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²⁷ Bowen and Moran, ‘Iran's nuclear programme’, p. 32.

²⁸ Levite, ‘Never say never again’, pp. 66, 72; Bowen and Moran, ‘Iran's nuclear programme’, pp. 30–1; Narang, ‘Strategies of nuclear proliferation’, p. 117, fn. 20. By threat potential, we do not mean that the programme is developed merely as a tool to negotiate with the great powers; in fact, few aspirants have proliferated simply to do so. See Glaser, Charles L., Analyzing Strategic Nuclear Policy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1990), p. 347CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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³¹ ‘Such restraint typically pertains to refraining from the construction of certain facilities; the production (of certain or all fissionable materials), testing, assembly, or deployment of weapons; or proclamations of nuclear status.’ Levite, ‘Never say never again’, p. 68.

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³⁴ Following Levite, we adopt a broad definition of nuclear hedging. Levite, ‘Never say never again’, p. 70.

³⁵ Nuclear reversal may be ‘fraught with political risks’ due to the need ‘to address the security, prestige, and bureaucratic appeal of a nuclear program’. Hence, nuclear reversal hardly progresses immediately towards rollback or proceeds in a smooth linear manner since states must manage domestic resistance and other risks associated with it. Levite, ‘Never say never again’, pp. 67, 74–5. For more examples on how states have used hedging or the like to minimise risks or maximise leverage, see Hersman and Peters, ‘Nuclear U-turns’, pp. 539–53; and Volpe, ‘Atomic leverage’, pp. 517–44.

³⁶ Volpe, ‘Atomic leverage’, p. 519; Singh, Sonali and Way, Christopher R., ‘The correlates of nuclear proliferation: a quantitative test’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48:6 (2004), pp. 865–7CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Narang, Vipin, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014), p. 299CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Bowen, Wyn, Moran, Matthew, and Esfandiary, Dina, Living on the Edge: Iran and the Practice of Nuclear Hedging (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

³⁷ Hersman and Peters, ‘Nuclear U-turns’, pp. 541–2. See also Gerzhoy, Gene, ‘Alliance coercion and nuclear restraint: How the United States thwarted West Germany's nuclear ambitions’, International Security, 39:4 (2015), pp. 91–129CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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³⁹ Bowen and Moran, ‘Iran's nuclear programme’, pp. 37–40.

⁴⁰ Given that we adopt a broad definition of hedging, we acknowledge that there are other causal pathways to nuclear restraint. We identify a key causal pathway that is in accordance with loss aversion.

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⁵⁴ Sigal, ‘Breaking the news frame of Trump's nuclear diplomacy’.

⁵⁵ Our arguments on the conditions of asymmetric leverage place greater emphasis on the policy changes that stem from shifts in reference point rather than changes in domains. See, for example, He, Kai and Feng, Huiyun, Prospect Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis in the Asia Pacific: Rational Leaders and Risky Behavior (New York: Routledge, 2013)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Cha, Victor D., ‘Hawk engagement and preventive defense on the Korean peninsula’, International Security, 27:1 (2002), pp. 40–78CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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⁵⁷ For instance, see Jeff Weiss, Aram Donigian, and Jonathan Hughes, ‘Extreme negotiations’, Harvard Business Review, available at: {https://hbr.org/2010/11/extreme-negotiations} accessed 11 August 2018.

⁵⁸ ‘Anything below this target is regarded as a loss and triggers risk-seeking behavior’, thus, individuals are willing to sink in greater costs in order to make up for the gap with the new reference point. Hardman, David, Judgment and Decision Making: Psychological Perspectives (West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2009), p. 70Google Scholar.

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⁹¹ Joo, ‘Deciphering what Pyongyang wants’, p. 26.

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⁹⁶ Joo, ‘Deciphering what Pyongyang wants’, p. 26.

⁹⁷ Wit, Poneman, and Gallucci, Going Critical, pp. 298, 328–30.

⁹⁸ ‘North Korea was not about to be bluffed. Nor was it about to comply first and hope to reap the benefits later. Only when Washington satisfied its concerns did Pyongyang relent. A strategy of cooperative security, not coercive diplomacy, accounts for the success of diplomacy in Korea.’ Sigal, Disarming Strangers, p. 9.

⁹⁹ Pollack, No Exit, p. 118.

¹⁰⁰ The guarantee further lacked congressional commitment without which the president did not have much room to maneuver. Wit, Poneman, and Gallucci, Going Critical, pp. 266–7.

¹⁰¹ Kim, The North Korean Nuclear Weapons Crisis, p. 32; Konstantin Asmolov, ‘US-DPRK: How the US “observed” the 1994 “Agreed Framework”’, Global Research, available at: {https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-dprk-how-the-us-observed-the-1994-agreed-framework/5619927} accessed 28 November 2017.

¹⁰² Kelsey Davenport, ‘Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy’, Arms Control Association, available at: {https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron#2008} accessed 14 August 2018.

¹⁰³ Martin, Curtis H., ‘Lessons of the Agreed Framework for using engagement as a nonproliferation tool’, The Nonproliferation Review, 6:4 (1999), p. 44CrossRefGoogle Scholar; ‘Korea Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO)’, Nuclear Threat Initiative, available at: {http://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/korean-peninsula-energy-development-organization-kedo/} accessed 12 April 2017.

¹⁰⁴ ‘H.Amdt.324 to H.R.2415’, Library of Congress, available at: {https://www.congress.gov/amendment/106th-congress/house-amendment/324} accessed 9 January 2018; Charles Kartman, Robert Carlin, and Joel Wit, ‘A History of KEDO 1994–2006’, Center for International Security and Cooperation (June 2012), p. 12, available at: {https://fsi-live.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/A_History_of_KEDO-1.pdf} accessed 9 January 2018; Jeffrey Lewis, ‘Revisiting the Agreed Framework’, 38 North, available at: {http://www.38north.org/2015/05/jlewis051415/} accessed 9 January 2018; Martin, ‘Lessons of the Agreed Framework’, p. 44.

¹⁰⁵ ‘Korea Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO)’, Nuclear Threat Initiative; Pollack, No Exit, pp. 136–7.

¹⁰⁶ Pritchard, Charles L., Failed Diplomacy: The Tragic Story of How North Korea Got the Bomb (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2007), pp. 2–3Google Scholar; Snyder, Scott, ‘U.S.-North Korean negotiating behavior and the Six-Party Talks’, in Joo, Seung-ho and Kwak, Tae-Hwan (eds), North Korea's Second Nuclear Crisis and Northeast Asian Security (Hampshire: Ashgate, 2007), p. 152Google Scholar; Pollack, No Exit, p. 131.

¹⁰⁷ Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, p. 4; Hur, The Six-Party Talks on North Korea, pp. 30–1.

¹⁰⁸ Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, p. 137; Snyder, ‘U.S.-North Korean negotiating behavior and the Six-Party Talks’, pp. 152–3; Pollack, No Exit, pp. 131–2; Hur, The Six-Party Talks on North Korea, p. 35.

¹⁰⁹ Moon, Chung-in and Bae, Jong-Yun, ‘The Bush Doctrine and the North Korean nuclear crisis’, in Gurtov, Melvin and Van Ness, Peter (eds), Confronting the Bush Doctrine: Critical Views from the Asia-Pacific (London: Routledge, 2004), p. 40Google Scholar; Edward A. Olsen, ‘The Bush administration and North Korea's nuclear policy’, in Joo and Kwak (eds), North Korea's Second Nuclear Crisis and Northeast Asian Security, pp. 45–64; Jackson, Rival Reputations, pp. 160-1; Cha, Victor, The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Present (London: Bodley Head, 2012), p. 255Google Scholar.

¹¹⁰ Park, John S., ‘Inside multilateralism: the Six-Party Talks’, Washington Quarterly, 28:4 (2005), pp. 76, 79–80CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Hur, The Six-Party Talks on North Korea, p. 39.

¹¹¹ Moreover, with North Korea having broken its side of the bargain also provided the early basis for US insistence on CVID. Cotton, James, ‘North Korea and the Six-Party process: Is a multilateral resolution of the Nuclear Issue Still Possible?’ Asian Security, 3:1 (2007), p. 38CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹¹² Former ambassador to ROK, Donald Gregg, recalls in his 2002 meeting with DPRK General Ri Chan-bok stating his concerns of potential US attacks on North Korea. Hur, The Six-Party Talks on North Korea, p. 107–08.

¹¹³ Habib, Benjamin, ‘North Korea's nuclear weapons programme and the maintenance of the Songun system’, Pacific Review, 24:1 (2011), pp. 56–9CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See also Woo, ‘Pyongyang and the world’, pp. 192–3.

¹¹⁴ Lee, Jae-Bong, ‘US-deployment of nuclear weapons in 1950s South Korea & North Korea's nuclear development: Toward denuclearization of the Korean peninsula’, Asia-Pacific Journal – Japan Focus, 7:3 (2009), p. 14Google Scholar; Pollack, No Exit, p. 144; Cha, Victor, ‘North Korea's weapons of mass destruction: Badges, shields, or swords?’, Political Science Quarterly, 117:2 (2002), pp. 29–30CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹¹⁵ Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, p. 2.

¹¹⁶ Hur, The Six-Party Talks on North Korea, p. 110.

¹¹⁷ Dae-Kyu Yoon, ‘Issues and Expectations for the 2nd Round of Six-Party Talks’, The Institute for Far Eastern Studies, available at: {http://ifes.kyungnam.ac.kr/kor/PUB/PUB_0202V.aspx?code=FRM1010_000103} accessed 24 February 2014, emphasis added.

¹¹⁸ The Six-Party Talks took place over six rounds: preliminary trilateral (US-China-DPRK) talks (23–5 April 2003); round 1 (27–9 August 2003); round 2 (25–8 February 2004); round 3 (23–6 June 2004); round 4 (26 July–7 August, 13–19 September 2005); and round 5 (session 1: 9–11 November 2005, session 2: 18–22 December 2006, and session 3: 8–13 February 2007). Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, pp. 85–6.

¹¹⁹ Park, ‘Inside multilateralism’, p. 76.

¹²⁰ Quote in Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, p. 102. See also Hur, The Six-Party Talks on North Korea, p. 86.

¹²¹ Martin, Curtis, ‘G. W. Bush and North Korea: a levels of analysis view’, Pacific Focus, 22:1 (2007), pp. 112–14Google Scholar.

¹²² Snyder, ‘U.S.-North Korean negotiating behavior and the Six-Party Talks’, p. 155.

¹²³ Cheney reportedly said: ‘I have been charged by the president with making sure that none of the tyrannies in the world are negotiated with. We don't negotiate with evil; we defeat it.’ Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, pp. 103–05.

¹²⁴ Martin, ‘G. W. Bush and North Korea’, p. 124. Prior to the start of negotiations in August 2003, State Secretary, Colin Powell, was the only one who signalled intentions to provide some form of security assurances that would be satisfactory to Pyongyang. Kurata, Hideya, ‘A conceptual analysis of the Six-Party Talks: Building peace through security assurances’, Asian Security, 3:1 (2007), p. 18CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹²⁵ Moon and Bae, ‘The Bush doctrine and the North Korean nuclear crisis’, p. 39.

¹²⁶ Cotton, ‘North Korea and the Six-Party process’ p. 28.

¹²⁷ Quote from Volpe, Tristan, ‘The unraveling of North Korea's proliferation blackmail strategy’, in Kim, Sung Chull and Cohen, Michael D. (eds), North Korea and Nuclear Weapons: Entering the New Era of Deterrence (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2017), p. 82Google Scholar; Kurata, ‘A conceptual analysis of the Six-Party Talks’, p. 19.

¹²⁸ Cotton, ‘North Korea and the Six-Party process’, p. 29; Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, p. 106; Snyder, ‘U.S.-North Korean negotiating behavior and the Six-Party Talks’, pp. 161–2; Moon and Bae, ‘The Bush doctrine and the North Korean nuclear crisis’, p. 40.

¹²⁹ Hur, The Six-Party Talks on North Korea, p. 98.

¹³⁰ Kurata, ‘A conceptual analysis of the Six-Party Talks’, p. 23.

¹³¹ Pollack, No Exit, p. 148.

¹³² Snyder, ‘U.S.-North Korean negotiating behavior and the Six-Party Talks’, p. 156; Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, p. 109; Pollack, No Exit, pp. 146–7.

¹³³ Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, p. 119; Cotton, ‘North Korea and the Six-Party process’, pp. 29–30.

¹³⁴ Department of State, ‘Joint Statement of the Fourth Round of the Six-Party Talks’, available at: {https://www.state.gov/p/eap/regional/c15455.htm} accessed 2 July 2018.

¹³⁵ Kwak, Tae-Hwan, ‘Resolving the North Korean nuclear issue through the Six-Party process: a creative formula’, The Journal of East Asian Affairs, 20:1 (2006), pp. 7–10Google Scholar.

¹³⁶ Armstrong, Charles K., ‘South Korea and the Six-Party Talks: the least bad option?’, Joint US-Korea Academic Studies, 21 (2011), p. 169Google Scholar; Cotton, ‘North Korea and the Six-Party process’, pp. 31–2; Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, pp. 121–3.

¹³⁷ The spokesman further noted that ‘once US nuclear threats are removed and the US nuclear umbrella for South Korea disappears, we will not need nuclear weapons, … [but] as long as the United States hostile policy toward the DPRK and nuclear threats are not fundamentally eliminated, we will never give up our nuclear weapons first, not even in a hundred years’. Pollack, No Exit, p. 159, emphasis in original. See also Cotton, ‘North Korea and the Six-Party process’, p. 34.

¹³⁸ Amanda Lilly, ‘Why the Six-Nation Talks?’, Washington Post, available at: {http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/18/AR2009061802560.html} accessed 27 June 2018.

¹³⁹ Nikitin, Mary Beth D., Chanlett-Avery, Emma, and Manyin, Mark E., Nuclear Negotiations with North Korea: In Brief, R45033 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2017), p. 8Google Scholar.

¹⁴⁰ Leon V. Sigal, ‘Looking for leverage in all the wrong places’, 38 North, available at: {https://www.38north.org/2010/05/looking-for-leverage-in-all-the-wrong-places/} accessed 13 April 2019; Tae-Hwan Kwak and Seung-Ho Joo, ‘The U.S. financial sanctions against North Korea’, Pacific Focus, 22:1 (2007), pp. 95–6.

¹⁴¹ Mike Chinoy, ‘Bush on North Korea: Wrong again’, 38 North, available at: {https://www.38north.org/2010/11/bush-on-north-korea-wrong-again/} accessed 26 July 2018; Siegfried S. Hecker, Robert L. Carlin, and E. A. Serbin, ‘A Technical and Political History of North Korea's Nuclear Program Over the Past 26 Years’, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, p. 7, available at: {https://fsi-live.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/narrativescombinedfinv2.pdf} accessed 8 July 2018.

¹⁴² Kwak and Joo, ‘The U.S. financial sanctions against North Korea’, pp. 99–102.

¹⁴³ Ibid., p. 103.

¹⁴⁴ Martin, ‘G. W. Bush and North Korea’, p. 115.

¹⁴⁵ Kim, The North Korean Nuclear Weapons Crisis, p. 113; Department of State, ‘Joint Statement of the Fourth Round of the Six-Party Talks’, available at: {https://www.state.gov/p/eap/regional/c15455.htm} accessed 2 July 2018.

¹⁴⁶ ‘Status of the Six-Party Talks for the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula’, Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, One Hundredth Tenth Congress, Second Session, pp. 6–7, available at: {http://www.gpoaccess.gov/congress/index.html} accessed 26 July 2018.

¹⁴⁷ Moon Chung-in, ‘The Six Party Talks and Implications for a Northeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone’, NAPSNet Special Reports, available at: {https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/the-six-party-talks-and-implications-for-a-northeast-asia-nuclear-weapons-free-zone/} accessed 26 July 2018.

¹⁴⁸ Christopher R. Hill, ‘North Korean Six-Party Talks and Implementation Activities’, US Department of State, available at: {https://2001-2009.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2008/07/107590.htm} accessed 14 August 2018. Kelsey Davenport, ‘Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy’, Arms Control Association, available at: {https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron#2008} accessed 14 August 2018.

¹⁴⁹ Volpe, ‘The unraveling of North Korea's proliferation blackmail strategy’, p. 83.

¹⁵⁰ Hecker, Carlin, and Serbin, ‘A Technical and Political History of North Korea's Nuclear Program Over the Past 26 Years’, pp. 7–8, 15.

¹⁵¹ Leon V. Sigal, ‘Lessons from the unhappy history of verification in North Korea’, 38 North, available at: {https://www.38north.org/2018/07/lsigal070918/} accessed 13 April 2019.

¹⁵² Lilly, ‘Why the Six-Nation Talks?’

¹⁵³ ‘Status of the Six-Party Talks for the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula’, Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, One Hundredth Tenth Congress, Second Session (6 February 2008), available at: {https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/020608_Transcript_Status%20of%20the%20SixParty%20Talks%20for%20Denuclearization%20of%20the%20Korean%20Peninsula.pdf} accessed 2 July 2018; Cha, The Impossible State, pp. 260–3.

¹⁵⁴ Catherine Killough, ‘Trump should heed the lessons of past U.S.-North Korea talks’, The National Interest, available at: {https://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-should-heed-lessons-past-us-north-korea-talks-45612} accessed 9 April 2019.

¹⁵⁵ Park, ‘Inside multilateralism’, pp. 78–9; Cha, The Impossible State, p. 263; Moon, Chung-in, ‘The Six Party Talks and implications for peninsular and regional peace and security’, in Frank, Rudiger and Swenson-Wright, John (eds), Korea and East Asia: The Stony Road to Collective Security (Leiden: Brill, 2012), p. 231Google Scholar.

¹⁵⁶ Evans J. R. Revere, ‘Re-Engaging North Korea After Kim Jong-il's Death: Last, Best Hope or Dialogue to Nowhere?’, Brookings Policy Paper 29 (January 2012), p. 11.

¹⁵⁷ Haejin Choi and Hyonhee Shin, ‘North Korea says denuclearization pledge not result of U.S.-led sanctions’, Reuters, available at: {https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea/north-korea-says-denuclearization-pledge-not-result-of-u-s-led-sanctions-idUSKBN1I703M} accessed 8 July 2018.

¹⁵⁸ Adam Mount and Ankit Panda, ‘North Korea is not denuclearizing’, The Atlantic, available at: {https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/04/north-korea-kim-jong-un-trump-nuclear-summit-weapons-missiles/558620/} accessed 8 July 2018; Leon V. Sigal, ‘Picking up the pieces from Hanoi’, 38 North, available at: {https://www.38north.org/2019/03/lsigal030519/} accessed 13 April 2019.

¹⁵⁹ Klingner, Bruce, ‘North Korea heading for the abyss’, The Washington Quarterly, 37:3 (2014), pp. 173–4CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁶⁰ Jim Geraghty, ‘What it's like to talk with North Korea’, National Review, available at: {https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/04/north-korea-south-korea-peace-talks/} accessed 28 June 2018. Similarly, Catherine Killough points out that Pyongyang ‘has also demonstrated a talent for hedging against the United States, as evidenced by its development of a uranium enrichment program’. Killough, ‘Trump should heed the lessons of past U.S.-North Korea Talks’.

¹⁶¹ Thus far, this expectation appears reasonable as Kim remains open to the idea of a third summit, and as he suggests, ‘If I didn't have the will [to denuclearise], I wouldn't be here right now.’ ‘Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un makes policy speech at first session of 14th SPA’, The Diplomat, available at: {https://manage.thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/thediplomat-supreme-leader-kim-jong-un-makes-policy-speech-at-first-session-of-14th-spa.pdf} accessed 13 April 2019; Kim, ‘The Hanoi summit’.

¹⁶² Knopf, Jeffrey, ‘Varieties of assurance’, Journal of Strategic Studies, 35:3 (2012), p. 387CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁶³ Levite, ‘Never say never again’, p. 67.

¹⁶⁴ Hersman and Peters, ‘Nuclear U-turns’, p. 548.

¹⁶⁵ John Hudson, ‘Compared with Trump, previous presidents extracted more concessions from N. Korea, experts say’, Washington Post, available at: {https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/compared-with-trump-previous-presidents-extracted-more-concessions-from-n-korea-experts-say/2018/06/12/84ea6aeb-2ce9-4d73-abf1-0614c5c56e68_story.html?utm_term=.129bd96247f7} accessed 15 June 2018.