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¹⁷ Werner, in ‘The effects of political similarity’, similarly, argues for complementarity of the similarity and shared norms propositions.

¹⁸ Welzel, Freedom Rising.

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²⁶ Lacina and Lee, ‘Cultural clash or democratic peace?’.

²⁷ Ibid., pp. 143–70; Geva, Nehemia and Hanson, D. Christopher, ‘Cultural similarity, foreign policy actions, and regime perception: an experimental study of international cues and democratic peace’, Political Psychology, 20:4 (1999), pp. 803–827 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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⁴⁵ Ragin, The Comparative Method.

⁴⁶ For the sake of parsimony, other variables known to influence outcomes of interstate conflict such as contiguity are not modelled in this causal explanation, but are included in the empirical testing of these premises. Conjunctural causation mathematically allows for the inclusion of multiple independent variables with presumed additive effects on the dependent variable and can explain these probabilities in terms of marginal impact changes (Bear F. Braumoeller, ‘Causal complexity and the study of politics’, Political Analysis, 11:3 (2003), pp. 209–33.

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⁶³ To ensure that the missing observations in our unbalanced panels are missed at random, we executed a Monte Carlo simulation that confirmed this assumption.

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⁶⁶ For further discussion of the methodology, see Welzel, Freedom Rising, appendix.

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