Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-fscjk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T07:56:41.919Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Adding police to a mathematical model of burglary

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 April 2010

ASHLEY B. PITCHER*
Affiliation:
OCIAM, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3LB, UK CAMS-EHESS, Maison des Sciences de l'Homme, 54 bd Raspail, Paris 75006, France email: [email protected]

Abstract

We review the Short model of urban residential burglary derived from taking the continuum limit of two difference equations – one of which models the attractiveness of individual houses to burglary, and the other of which models burglar movement. This leads to a system of non-linear partial differential equations. We propose a change to the Short model and also add deterrence caused by the presence of uniformed officers to the model. We solve the resulting system of non-linear partial differential equations numerically and present results both with and without deterrence.

Type
Papers
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

[1]Beavon, D. J. K., Brantingham, P. L. & Brantingham, P. J. (1994) The influence of street networks on the patterning of property offenses. In: Clarke, R. V. (editor) Crime Prevention Studies, 1st edn., Criminal Justice Press, vol. 2, pp. 115148.Google Scholar
[2]Bernasco, W. (2008) Them again: Same offender involvement in repeat and near repeat burglaries. Eur. J. Criminol. 5, 411431.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[3]Bowers, K. J. & Johnson, S. D. (2005) Domestic burglary repeats and space-time clusters: the dimensions of risk. Eur. J. Criminol. 2, 6792.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[4]Braga, A. A. (2001) The effects of hot spots policing on crime. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 578, 104125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[5]Ericsson, U. (1995) Straight from the horse's mouth. Forensic Update 43, 2325.Google Scholar
[6]Johnson, S. D., Bernasco, W., Bowers, K. J., Elffers, H., Ratcliffe, J., Rengert, G. & Townsley, M. (2007) Space-time patterns of risk: A cross national assessment of residential burglary victimization. J. Quant. Criminol. 23, 201219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[7]Johnson, S. D., Summers, L. & Pease, K. (2009) Offender as forager? A direct test of the boost account of victimization. J. Quant. Criminol. 25, 181200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[8]Koper, C. S. (1995) Just enough police presence: Reducing crime and disorderly behavior by optimizing patrol in crime hot spots. Justice Q. 12 (4), 649672.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[9]Murray, J. D. (2003) Mathematical Biology II: Spatial Models and Biomedical Applications, 3rd edn., Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[10]Sherman, L. W. & Weisburd, D. (1995) General deterrent effects of police patrol in crime “hot spots”: A randomized, controlled trial. Justice Q. 12, 625648.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[11]Short, M. B., D'Orsogna, M. R., Pasour, V. B., Tita, G. E., Brantingham, P. J., Bertozzi, A. L. & Chayes, L. B. (2008) A statistical model of criminal behavior. Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci. 18, 12491267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[12]Summers, L., Johnson, S. D. & Rengert, G. F. (2010) The use of maps in offender interviewing. In: Bernasco, W. (editor) Offenders on Offending: Learning About Crime from Criminals, 1st edn., Willan, Cullompton, pp. 246272.Google Scholar
[13]Townsley, M., Homel, R. & Chaseling, J. (2000) Repeat burglary victimisation: Spatial and temporal patterns. Aust. N.Z. J. Criminol. 33, 3763.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[14]Walker, J. T. (2007) Advancing science and research in criminal justice/criminology: Complex systems theory and non-linear analyses. Justice Q. 24, 555581.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[15]Weisburd, D., Wyckoff, L. A., Ready, J., Eck, J. E., Hinkle, J. C. & Gajewski, F. (2006) Does crime just move around the corner? A controlled study of spatial displacement and diffusion of crime control benefits. Criminology 44, 549592.CrossRefGoogle Scholar