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Point-process models of social network interactions: Parameter estimation and missing data recovery

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 October 2015

JOSEPH R. ZIPKIN ,
FREDERIC P. SCHOENBERG ,
KATHRYN CORONGES  and
ANDREA L. BERTOZZI
JOSEPH R. ZIPKIN
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA email: [email protected]; [email protected]
FREDERIC P. SCHOENBERG
Affiliation:
Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA email: [email protected]
KATHRYN CORONGES
Affiliation:
Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, USA email: [email protected]
ANDREA L. BERTOZZI
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA email: [email protected]; [email protected]
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Abstract

Electronic communications, as well as other categories of interactions within social networks, exhibit bursts of activity localised in time. We adopt a self-exciting Hawkes process model for this behaviour. First we investigate parameter estimation of such processes and find that, in the parameter regime we encounter, the choice of triggering function is not as important as getting the correct parameters once a choice is made. Then we present a relaxed maximum likelihood method for filling in missing data in records of communications in social networks. Our optimisation algorithm adapts a recent curvilinear search method to handle inequality constraints and a non-vanishing derivative. Finally we demonstrate the method using a data set composed of email records from a social network based at the United States Military Academy. The method performs differently on this data and data from simulations, but the performance degrades only slightly as more information is removed. The ability to fill in large blocks of missing social network data has implications for security, surveillance, and privacy.

Keywords

Hawkes processesmaximum likelihoodmissing dataconstrained optimizationsocial networks
Type
Papers
Information
European Journal of Applied Mathematics , Volume 27 , Issue 3: Mathematical Modelling of Crime and Security , June 2016 , pp. 502 - 529
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2015 

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