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Understanding weekly cycles in suicide: an analysis of Austrian and Swiss data over 40 years

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 April 2014

V. Ajdacic-Gross ,
U. S. Tran ,
M. Bopp ,
G. Sonneck ,
T. Niederkrotenthaler ,
N. D. Kapusta ,
W. Rössler ,
E. Seifritz  and
M. Voracek
V. Ajdacic-Gross*
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Zurich University Hospital for Psychiatry, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
U. S. Tran
Affiliation:
Department of Basic Psychological Research and Research Methods, School of Psychology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
M. Bopp
Affiliation:
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
G. Sonneck
Affiliation:
Department of General Practice and Family Medicine, Center for Public Health, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Social Psychiatry, Vienna, Austria
T. Niederkrotenthaler
Affiliation:
Department of General Practice and Family Medicine, Center for Public Health, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
N. D. Kapusta
Affiliation:
Department of Psychoanalysis and Psychotherapy, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
W. Rössler
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Zurich University Hospital for Psychiatry, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland Collegium Helveticum, University of Zurich and Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland Institute of Psychiatry, Laboratory of Neuroscience (LIM27), University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
E. Seifritz
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Zurich University Hospital for Psychiatry, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
M. Voracek
Affiliation:
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland Georg Elias Müller Department of Psychology, Georg August University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
*
*Address for correspondence: Dr V. Ajdacic-Gross, Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Zurich University Hospital for Psychiatry, University of Zurich, PO Box 1930, CH-8021 Zürich, Switzerland. (Email: [email protected])
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Abstract

Background.

Seasonal as well as weekly cycles in suicide have been described, replicated and poorly understood for a long time. In Western countries, suicides are typically least frequent on weekends and most frequent on Mondays and Tuesdays. To improve understanding of this phenomenon a strategy is required which focuses on anomalous findings beyond the regular patterns. Here, we focused on instances where the weekly suicide patterns disappear or are interrupted.

Methods.

We used data from Swiss and Austrian mortality statistics for the periods 1969–2010 and 1970–2010, respectively. First, the data were cross-tabulated by days of the week and the available socio-demographic information (sex, age, religious affiliation and region). Second, time series of cumulated daily frequencies of suicide were analysed by seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models which included intervention effects accounting for Easter and Pentecost (Whit) holidays.

Results.

First, the cross tabulations showed that weekly cycles may be smoothed above all in young persons and smoothed in drowning, jumping and car gas exhaustion suicides. Second, the ARIMA analyses displayed occasional preventive effects for holidays Saturdays and Sundays, and more systematic effects for holiday Mondays. There were no after effects on Tuesdays following holiday Mondays.

Conclusions.

In general, the weekend dip and the Monday backlog effect in suicide show striking similarities to the Advent season effect and are interpretable within the same template. The turning points between low and high frequencies possibly provide promising frames for the timing of prevention activities.

Keywords

Cyclesholidaysseasonsuicidetime series
Type
Original Article
Information
Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences , Volume 24 , Issue 4 , August 2015 , pp. 315 - 321
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2014 

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