This nested case-control study investigated the risk factors for gastroenteritis in a cohort using rainwater as their primary domestic water source. Consumption of beef [odds ratio (OR) 2·74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·56–4·80], handling of raw fresh chicken in the household (OR 1·52, 95% CI 1·02–2·29) and animal contact (OR 1·83, 95% CI 1·20–2·83) were found to be significant risk factors (P>0·05). Significant protective effects were observed with raw salad prepared at home (OR 0·33, 95% CI 0·18–0·58), consumption of salami (OR 0·60, 95% CI 0·36–0·98), and shellfish (OR 0·31, 95% CI 0·14–0·67). This study provides novel insight into community-based endemic gastroenteritis showing that consumption of beef was associated with increased odds of illness and with a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 57·6%. Detecting such a high PAF for beef in a non-outbreak setting was unexpected.

Intake of a small dose of foodborne pathogens can cause infection. In this study, an estimation of the infectious dose of the pathogens was obtained by conducting microbiological risk assessments. The contamination levels of foodborne pathogens were analysed in 17 outbreaks of Salmonella, Escherichia coli O157, enterotoxigenic E. coli, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, and Campylobacter jejuni occurring in Japan between 2004 and 2006. The infectious dose was estimated in 14 of the 17 outbreaks utilizing existing data. In three outbreaks of Salmonella infection in which the infection rate was 89–100%, the dose of the ingested pathogens was estimated to be 259 000–14 000 000 000 c.f.u. In other outbreaks of Salmonella infection, the infection rate and dose of the ingested pathogens were 10–66·4% and 81–1560 c.f.u. or most probable number (MPN), respectively. The ingested Salmonella dose is likely to be related to the infection rate; however, storage conditions should be taken into account when making this determination. In an outbreak of E. coli O157 infection, the infection rate and ingestion dose were 100% and 2 to <9 c.f.u., respectively, while in an outbreak of enterotoxigenic E. coli infection, they were 93% and 25–1000 c.f.u., respectively. Finally, in an outbreak of C. jejuni infection, the infection rate and ingestion dose were 37·5% and 360 MPN, respectively. These results will be particularly valuable for risk assessment.

A multivariate time-series regression model was developed in order to describe the 2005–2008 age-specific time-course of varicella sentinel surveillance data following the introduction of a varicella childhood vaccination programme in Germany. This ecological approach allows the assessment of vaccine effectiveness under field conditions by relating vaccine coverage in cohorts of 24-month-old children to the mean number of cases per reporting unit in the sentinel network. For the 1–2 years age group, which is directly affected by the vaccination programme, a one-dose vaccine effectiveness of 83·2% (95% CI 80·2–85·7) was estimated which corresponds to previous approaches assessing varicella vaccine effectiveness in the field in the USA.

We investigated the effect of social inequalities on the uptake of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, combining data from a feasibility study conducted in 2007–2008 in 2817 secondary schoolgirls in two UK primary-care trusts, with census and child health records. Uptake was significantly lower in more deprived areas (P<0·001) and in ethnic minority girls (P=0·013). The relatively small proportion of parents who actively refused vaccination by returning a negative consent form were more likely to come from more advantaged areas (P<0·001). Non-responding parents were from more deprived (P<0·001) and ethnic minority (P=0·001) backgrounds. Girls who did not receive HPV vaccination were less likely to have received all their childhood immunizations particularly measles, mumps and rubella (MMR). Different approaches may be needed to maximize HPV vaccine uptake in engaged and non-responding parents, including ethnic-specific approaches for non-responders.

In France, the surveillance of hospitalized cases of pandemic influenza was implemented in July 2009 and restricted to intensive-care unit (ICU) patients in November. We described the characteristics of the 1065 adult patients admitted to ICUs and analysed risk factors for severe outcome (mechanical ventilation or death). Eighty-seven percent of cases were aged 15–64 years. The case-fatality ratio was 20%. The risk for severe outcome increased with age and obesity while this association was negative for chronic respiratory disease. Late antiviral therapy was associated with a severe outcome in ICU patients with risk factors (adjusted OR 2·0, 95% CI 1·4–3·0). This study confirms the considerable contribution of young adults to A(H1N1) 2009 mortality. It shows the role of obesity as an independent risk factor for severe disease, and of early antiviral therapy as a protective factor, at least in patients with risk factors.

The use of shared common water points (WPs) and grazing points (GPs) at two different levels of administrative aggregation (village and kebelle) in a region of the Highlands of Ethiopia was explored by means of a questionnaire survey and social network analysis. Despite GPs being more abundant than WPs (208 and 154, respectively), individual GPs provide more contact opportunities for animals. There was great variability in the contact structure of the selected villages within kebelles for both networks, with this variability being higher in the GP networks for each kebelle. Contrary to the commonly held view that WPs are critical for the potential transmission of infectious diseases, intervention at GPs in the Ethiopian Highlands may have greater impact on contacts and thereby opportunities for transmission of infectious diseases between flocks. Some villages appear naturally at much lower risk of introducing disease. These findings could help the design of surveillance and control activities for directly transmitted infectious diseases.

Contamination of locally produced, ready-to-eat meats by Listeria spp. has been previously reported at one processing plant in Trinidad. However, the status of this pathogen in locally produced products sold at retail outlets is unknown. This study was conducted to establish whether there is a risk to consumers of locally processed meats caused by the presence of Listeria spp., and whether a link exists between the presence of the pathogen in retail products and the manufacturing plant of one brand (B). Four hundred and eighty ready-to-eat meat products of two popular local brands (A and B) were collected from retail outlets and analysed for the presence of Listeria spp. together with food samples and surfaces from one manufacturing plant (B). Eighty-eight of the retail products (18·3%) were contaminated with Listeria spp., of which, 52·3% were L. innocua, 44·3% were L. monocytogenes and 3·4% belonged to the L. seeligeri–L. welshimeri–L. ivanovii (Siwi) group. L. innocua was found in 15 in-process food samples and on three surfaces of equipment at plant B. Four in-process food samples were also contaminated with Siwi isolates. Repetitive extragenic palindromic PCR DNA fingerprinting showed a possible association between strains of different Listeria spp. and brand as well as with manufacturing plant B.

We describe the real-time modelling analysis conducted in Italy during the early phases of the 2009 A/H1N1v influenza pandemic in order to estimate the impact of the pandemic and of the related mitigation measures implemented. Results are presented along with a comparison with epidemiological surveillance data which subsequently became available. Simulated epidemics were fitted to the estimated number of influenza-like syndromes collected within the Italian sentinel surveillance systems and showed good agreement with the timing of the observed epidemic. On the basis of the model predictions, we estimated the underreporting factor of the influenza surveillance system to be in the range 3·3–3·7 depending on the scenario considered. Model prediction suggested that the epidemic would peak in early November. These predictions have proved to be a valuable support for public health policy-makers in planning interventions for mitigating the spread of the pandemic.

The rate of case investigation for measles-like illness (MLI) is an important indicator for the quality of measles surveillance in countries targeting measles elimination. However, a benchmark rate is still being discussed. We assessed different rates of investigation in 11 territories of the Russian Federation with low reported measles incidence during the previous 4–7 years. Each territory maintained their existing surveillance activities and also undertook additional surveillance activities for MLI over a 3-year period. The annual routine rate of investigation varied from 0·06 to 1·8/100 000 population; the overall rate of investigation, including enhanced surveillance, varied from 1·4 to 7·2/100 000. Forty-nine (30·8%) of 159 measles cases detected were identified through enhanced surveillance. Based on the results of this study, the Russian Federation concluded that a rate of routine investigation of 2/100 000 provided the best balance between available resources and sensitivity for detection of measles cases.

Plague, which is most often caused by the bite of Yersinia pestis-infected fleas, is a rapidly progressing, serious disease that can be fatal without prompt antibiotic treatment. In late December 2007, an outbreak of acute gastroenteritis occurred in Nimroz Province of southern Afghanistan. Of the 83 probable cases of illness, 17 died (case fatality 20·5%). Being a case was associated with consumption or handling of camel meat (adjusted odds ratio 4·4, 95% confidence interval 2·2–8·8, P<0·001). Molecular testing of patient clinical samples and of tissue from the camel using PCR/electrospray ionization–mass spectrometry revealed DNA signatures consistent with Yersinia pestis. Confirmatory testing using real-time PCR and immunological seroconversion of one of the patients confirmed that the outbreak was caused by plague, with a rare gastrointestinal presentation. The study highlights the challenges of identifying infectious agents in low-resource settings; it is the first reported occurrence of plague in Afghanistan.

To investigate the changes in community responsiveness during the pre-community-outbreak phase of the H1N1 epidemic in Hong Kong, a pooled sample of 999 adults was interviewed in three surveys (S1, S2, S3) from 7 May to 6 June 2009. Over time, fewer people felt confident in staying free from H1N1 infection in the following year (S1, 63·3%; S3, 46%; P<0·001). The level of distress due to H1N1 remained modest throughout the study period. People's confidence in the government's ability to control a large-scale H1N1 outbreak declined slightly at the third survey (S1, 80·5%; S3, 73·8%; P=0·025). Across the three surveys, respondents remained vigilant with frequent adoption of preventive measures (e.g. wearing face masks in public areas when suffering from influenza-like symptoms and frequent hand-washing). The public was generally supportive of the Hong Kong government although misconceptions regarding the disease were common. Provision of evidence-based public-health education is still warranted as the disease outbreak unfolds.

The discriminatory power of multiple-locus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis (MLVA) needs to be evaluated for all Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Typhimurium (S. Typhimurium) phage types so that the power of this methodology is understood and results can be interpreted correctly during outbreak investigations. We evaluated the ability of MLVA to characterize four definitive phage types (DT) problematic in New Zealand. MLVA discriminated between DT104 isolates although there was very limited variation in the MLVA profiles for isolates with an RDNC phage type (reacts but does not conform to a recognized Typhimurium phage pattern) first observed in New Zealand's Enteric Reference Laboratory in May 2006. Most DT101 isolates had indistinguishable MLVA profiles or profiles that differed at one or two loci. This was also observed in DT160 isolates. MLVA may not identify all common-source outbreaks although it provided valuable data when applied to case isolates from two S. Typhimurium outbreaks.

Streptococcus equi subsp. zooepidemicus rarely causes meningitis in humans by contact with domestic animals or their unpasteurized products. In this paper we reviewed the literature pertaining to the epidemiological and clinical aspects relating to this infection on previously reported cases of human disease. Additionally, the case of a 51-year-old female who acquired meningitis with this organism after contact with a horse is described. This patient was successfully treated with ceftriaxone, yet penicillin remains the treatment of choice. This aetiological agent should be considered in the proper epidemiological context.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) such as facemasks and intensified hand hygiene may be effective in preventing influenza infections in households. It may be equally important that household members, especially children, can learn to use, maintain and tolerate these measures. We monitored adherence and tolerability of these NPI within a cluster-randomized trial in households with influenza index patients. We recruited 147 participants in 41 households, 39 (95%) out of 41 index patients were children (aged <14 years). In households assigned to wear facemasks, their use peaked on day 4 after symptom onset of the index patient at 73% and at 65% for children and adults, respectively. Mean daily frequency of hand disinfection in households assigned to intensified hand hygiene measures peaked at 7·7 (day 6) for children and at 10·1 (day 5) for adults. The majority of participants reported no problems with mask wearing. Data suggest that usage of NPI can be taught and that measures are well tolerated by adults and even sick children alike.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is one of the leading nosocomial pathogens. The question of the respective contribution of endogenous and exogenous sources remains controversial. In this study, we shed new light on this issue by means of a multilevel logistic regression analysis which allowed a simultaneous investigation of factors associated with prevalence of patients infected with P. aeruginosa at two levels: patient and healthcare facility (HCF) in the eastern regions of France. A total of 25 533 in-patients from 51 HCFs were included in the analysis. The overall prevalence was 0·37% (range 0–1·65%). Multilevel modelling estimated that <14% of total variability of the outcome variable was explained by differences between HCFs and that after adjusting for patient-level variables, which explained 52% of HCF-level variance, the latter became non-significantly different from zero. A compositional effect (patient factors), rather than a contextual effect (ecological factors), explains heterogeneity of the prevalence of patients infected with P. aeruginosa in the eastern HCFs of France.

Investigations of the relationship between weather variability and infectious gastroenteritis (IG) are becoming increasingly important in light of international interest in the potential health effects of climate change. However, few studies have examined the impact on children, despite the fact that children are considered particularly vulnerable to climate change. We acquired data about cases of IG in children aged <15 years and about weather variability in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2008 and used time-series analyses to assess how weather variability affected IG cases, adjusting for confounding factors. The temperature–IG relationship had an inverted V shape, with fewer cases at temperatures lower and higher than ~13°C. Every 1°C increase in temperature below the threshold (13°C) was associated with a 23·2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 16·6–30·2] increase, while every 1°C increase in temperature above the threshold (13°C) was associated with an 11·8% (95% CI 6·6–17·3) decrease in incidence. The increase in cases per 1% drop in relative humidity was 3·9% (95% CI 2·8–5·0). The percentage increase of IG cases was greatest in the 0–4 years age group and tended to decrease with increasing age. We found a progressive reduction in weather-related IG cases in children aged >4 years. Our results suggest that public health interventions aimed at controlling weather-related IG may be most effective when focused on young children.

Understanding seasonal changes in age-related incidence of infections can be revealing for disentangling how host heterogeneities affect transmission and how to control the spread of infections between social groups. Seasonal forcing has been well documented in human childhood diseases but the mechanisms responsible for age-related transmission in free-living and socially structured animal populations are still poorly known. Here we studied the seasonal dynamics of Bordetella bronchiseptica in a free-living rabbit population over 5 years and discuss the possible mechanisms of infection. This bacterium has been isolated in livestock and wildlife where it causes respiratory infections that rapidly spread between individuals and persist as subclinical infections. Sera were collected from rabbits sampled monthly and examined using an ELISA. Findings revealed that B. bronchiseptica circulates in the rabbit population with annual prevalence ranging between 88% and 97%. Both seroprevalence and antibody optical density index exhibited 1-year cycles, indicating that disease outbreaks were seasonal and suggesting that long-lasting antibody protection was transient. Intra-annual dynamics showed a strong seasonal signature associated with the recruitment of naive offspring during the breeding period. Infection appeared to be mainly driven by mother-to-litter contacts rather than by interactions with other members of the community. By age 2 months, 65% of the kittens were seropositive.

The purpose of this study was to determine the magnitude and distribution of acute gastrointestinal illness (GI) in the Chilean population, describe its burden and presentation, identify risk factors associated with GI and assess the differences between a 7-day, 15-day and a 30-day recall period in the population-based burden of illness study design. Face-to-face surveys were conducted on 6047 randomly selected residents in the Metropolitan region, Chile (average response rate 75·8%) in 2008. The age-adjusted monthly prevalence of GI was 9·2%. The 7-day recall period provided annual incidence rate estimates about 2·2 times those of the 30-day recall period. Age, occupation, healthcare system, sewer system, antibiotic use and cat ownership were all found to be significant predictors for being a case. This study expands on the discussion of recall bias in retrospective population studies and reports the first population-based burden and distribution of GI estimates in Chile.

This study aimed to identify risk factors for dogs becoming rectal carriers of multidrug-resistant (MDR) Escherichia coli while hospitalized in a veterinary teaching hospital. Exposures to potential risk factors, including treatments, hospitalization, and interventions during a 42-day pre-admission period and hospitalization variables, were assessed for 90 cases and 93 controls in a retrospective, risk-based, case-control study. On multivariable analyses, hospitalization for >6 days [odds ratio (OR) 2·91–8·00], treatment with cephalosporins prior to admission (OR 5·04, 95% CI 1·25–20·27), treatment with cephalosporins for >1 day (OR 5·18, 95% CI 1·86–14·41), and treatment with metronidazole (OR 7·17, 95% CI 1·01–50·79) while hospitalized were associated with increased risk of rectal carriage of MDR E. coli during hospitalization. The majority of rectal isolates obtained during the study period conformed to MDR E. coli clonal groups previously obtained from extraintestinal infections. These results can assist the development of improved infection control guidelines for the management of dogs in veterinary hospitals to prevent the occurrence of nosocomial clinical infections.

Rubella, a vaccine-preventable infection. This study examined the antibody status of 11 987 pregnant women during 2005–2009. Results showed a non-significant decrease in those with antibody levels of <4·0 IU/ml from 29/2312 (1·3%) in 2005 to 21/2447 (0·9%) in 2009 (χ2 for linear trend=0·279, P=0·56) but a significant increase in those with levels of <10 IU/ml from 88/2312 (3·8%) in 2005 to 124/2447 (5·1%) in 2009 (χ2 for linear trend=10·27, P=0·001). In women born before 1983 (pre-pubertal vaccination) the proportion of first pregnancies with titres <4 IU was 1·1% (21/2002) compared to 3·4% (69/2022) in those born after 1983 (χ2=25·176, P<0·0001) and 2·2% (44/2002) for titres <10 IU compared to 14·0% (282/2022) for those born after 1983 (χ2=171·43, P<0·0001). The potential impact of the increase is difficult to determine, requiring further monitoring. This paper discusses the effect of changing immunization programmes on rubella susceptibility in pregnant women.