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Predicting and preventing measles epidemics in New Zealand: application of a mathematical model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2000

M. G. ROBERTS  and
M. I. TOBIAS
M. G. ROBERTS
Affiliation:
AgResearch, Wallaceville Animal Research Centre, P.O. Box 40063, Upper Hutt, New Zealand
M. I. TOBIAS
Affiliation:
Ministry of Health, P.O. Box 5013, Wellington, New Zealand
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Abstract

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A mathematical model of the dynamics of measles in New Zealand was developed in 1996. The model successfully predicted an epidemic in 1997 and was instrumental in the decision to carry out an intensive MMR (measles–mumps–rubella) immunization campaign in that year. While the epidemic began some months earlier than anticipated, it was rapidly brought under control, and its impact on the population was much reduced. In order to prevent the occurrence of further epidemics in New Zealand, an extended version of the model has since been developed and applied to the critical question of the optimal timing of MMR immunization.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 124 , Issue 2 , April 2000 , pp. 279 - 287
Copyright
© 2000 Cambridge University Press

Footnotes

Published with the approval of the Director-General of Health. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policy of the Ministry of Health.