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Forecasting the geographical spread of smallpox cases by air travel

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 October 2003

R. F. GRAIS ,
J. H. ELLIS  and
G. E. GLASS
R. F. GRAIS
Affiliation:
Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
J. H. ELLIS
Affiliation:
Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
G. E. GLASS
Affiliation:
W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
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Abstract

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Instituting air travel restrictions to slow the geographical spread of smallpox cases would have significant consequences and present serious logistical concerns. Public health decision makers must weigh the potential benefits of such restrictions against their negative impact. The goal of this research is to provide a basic analytical framework to explore some of the issues surrounding the use of air travel restrictions as a part of an overall containment strategy. We report preliminary results of a compartmental model for the inter-city spread of smallpox cases resulting from US domestic air travel. Although air traffic can be halted within hours as was shown following the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, these results suggest that the consequences of halting domestic air travel may not be outweighed by public health benefits.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 131 , Issue 2 , October 2003 , pp. 849 - 857
Copyright
2003 Cambridge University Press