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Estimation of the dynamics and rate of transmission of classical swine fever (hog cholera) in wild pigs

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 May 2009

J. Hone ,
R. Pech  and
P. Yip
J. Hone
Affiliation:
Applied Ecology Research Group, University of Canberra, PO Box 1, Belconnen 2616, Australia
R. Pech
Affiliation:
CSIRO Division of Wildlife and Ecology, PO Box 84, Lyneham 2602, Australia
P. Yip
Affiliation:
Department of Statistics, La Trobe University, Bundoora 3083, Australia Department of Statistics, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong
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Summary

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Infectious diseases establish in a population of wildlife hosts when the number of secondary infections is greater than or equal to one. To estimate whether establishment will occur requires extensive experience or a mathematical model of disease dynamics and estimates of the parameters of the disease model. The latter approach is explored here. Methods for estimating key model parameters, the transmission coefficient (β) and the basic reproductive rate (RDRS), are described using classical swine fever (hog cholera) in wild pigs as an example. The tentative results indicate that an acute infection of classical swine fever will establish in a small population of wild pigs. Data required for estimation of disease transmission rates are reviewed and sources of bias and alternative methods discussed. A comprehensive evaluation of the biases and efficiencies of the methods is needed.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 108 , Issue 2 , April 1992 , pp. 377 - 386
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1992

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