Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-gb8f7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T00:48:18.420Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The estimation of age-related rates of infection from case notifications and serological data

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 October 2009

B. T. Grenfell  and
R. M. Anderson
B. T. Grenfell
Affiliation:
Department of Pure and Applied Biology, Imperial College, London University, London SW7 2BB
R. M. Anderson
Affiliation:
Department of Pure and Applied Biology, Imperial College, London University, London SW7 2BB
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

The paper describes a maximum-likelihood method for the estimation of age-related changes in the per capita rate of infection, from case notification records or serological data. The methods are applied to records of measles incidence in the UK and USA, for which the estimated rates of infection tend to rise to a maximum value at around 10 years of age and then to decline in the older age-classes. Longer-term and seasonal trends are analysed by reference to changes in the estimated average age at infection; a statistic derived from a knowledge of the age-specific rates of infection. Future data needs in the epidemiological study of directly transmitted viral and bacterial diseases are discussed with reference to the detection and interpretation of age-dependent rates of disease transmission.

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Hygiene , Volume 95 , Issue 2 , October 1985 , pp. 419 - 436
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1985

References

REFERENCES

Anderson, R. M. (1982). Directly transmitted viral ami bacterial infections of man. In Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Agents: Theory and Applications (ed. Ander-Hon, R. M.), pp. 1–37. London: Chapman and Hall.Google Scholar
Anderson, R. M., Grenfell, B. T. & May, R. M. (1984). Oscillatory fluctuations in the incidence of infectious disease and the impact of vaccination: time series analysis. Journal of Hygiene 93, 587–608.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. (1982). Directly transmitted infectious diseases: control by vaccination. Science 215, 1953–1060.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. (1983). Vaccination against rubella and measles: quantitative investigations of different policies. Journal of Hygiene 90, 250–325.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. (1985). Age-related changes in the rate of disease transmission: implications for the design of vaccination programmes. Journal of Hygiene 94, 305–430.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Black, F. L. (1950). Measles antibodies in the population of New Haven, Connecticut. Journal of Immunology 83, 74–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chatfield, C. (1975). The Analysis of Time Scries: Theory and Practice. London: Chapman and Hall.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collins, S. D. (1921). Past incidence of certain communicable diseases common among children. Public Health Reports 36, 1553–1567.Google Scholar
Collins, S. D. (1920). Age incidence of the common communicable diseases of children. Public Health Reports 44, 703–820.Google Scholar
Fales, W. T. (1928). The age distribution of whooping cough, measles, chicken pox, scarlet fever and diphtheria in various areas in the United States. American Journal of Hygiene 8, 750–799.Google Scholar
Fine, P. E. M. & Clarkson, J. A. (1982a). Measles in England and Wales. I. An analysis of the factors underlying seasonal patterns. International Journal of Epidemiology 11, 5–14.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fine, P. E. M. & Clakkson, J. A. (1982b). Measles in England and Wales. II. The impact of the measles vaccination programme on the distribution of immunity in the population. International Journal of Epidemiology 11, 15–29.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Godfrey, E. S. (1928). The age distribution of communicable diseases according to size of community. American Journal of Public Health 18, 616–631.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Griffiths, D. A. (1974). A catalytic model of infection for measles. Applied Statistics 23, 330–339.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hedrich, A. W. (1930). The corrected average attack rate from measles among city children. American Journal of Hygiene 11, 576–600.Google Scholar
London, W. P. & Yorke, J. A. (1973). Recurrent outbreaks of measles, chicken pox and mumps. I. Seasonal variation in contact rates. American Journal of Epidemiology 98, 453–468.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Muench, H. (1959). Catalytic Models in Epidemiology. Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nelder, J. A. & Wedderburn, R. W. M. (1972). Generalised linear models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 135, 370–384.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schenzle, D. (1985). Control of virus transmission in age-structured populations. Lecture Notes in Biomathematics. (In the Press.)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sydenstricker, E. (1928). The incidence of various diseases according to age. Public Health Reports 43, 1124–1156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilson, G. N. (1904). Measles: its prevalence and mortality in Aberdeen. Iteporl of the Medical Officer of Health, Aberdeen, pp. 41–51.Google Scholar