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Dose-response relationships for foot and mouth disease in cattle and sheep

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 April 2002

N. P. FRENCH
Affiliation:
Department of Veterinary Clinical Science and Animal Husbandry, University of Liverpool, Leahurst, Neston, S. Wirral CH64 7TE
L. KELLY
Affiliation:
Veterinary Laboratories Agency, Woodham Lane, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB
R. JONES
Affiliation:
Veterinary Laboratories Agency, Woodham Lane, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB
D. CLANCY
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool L69 7ZL
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Abstract

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The relationships between the inhaled dose of foot and mouth disease virus and the outcomes of infection and disease were examined by fitting dose-response models to experimental data. The parameters for both the exponential and beta-poisson models were estimated using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The median probability of infection given a single inhaled TCID50 was estimated to be 0·031 with 95% Bayesian credibility intervals (CI) of 0·018–0·052 for cattle, and 0·045 (CI = 0·024–0·080) for sheep. These estimates were used to construct dose-response curves and uncertainty distributions for use in quantitative risk assessments.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2002 Cambridge University Press