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Clearance of young parasite forms following treatment of falciparum malaria in humans: comparison of three simple mathematical models
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 01 August 1997
Abstract
To characterize post-treatment clearance of young forms of Plasmodium falciparum from the blood, three differential equation models, a linear decline, a linear then logarithmic decline, and the Michaelis–Menten (MM) kinetic equation, were fitted to log-transformed serial parasite counts from 30 semi-immune patients with synchronous parasitaemias allocated one of six antimalarial drug regimens. The first two equations were solved analytically. The MM equation was solved numerically using a fifth-order Runge–Kutta method. For each equation, parasite clearance was assumed stochastic and log-transformed parasite counts were assumed to be normally distributed at each time-point. Comparisons between models were by Minimum Akaike Information Criterion Estimate. A constrained MM equation fitted the data at least as well as the other two models in 5 of 6 drug groups and also when pooled data were analysed, providing a single index which could be used in drug efficacy studies in similar situations or as part of more complex models that encompass asynchronous, complicated infections.
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- © 1997 Cambridge University Press
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