Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future. O. H. Pilkey and L. Pilkey-Jarvis. 2007. Columbia University Press, New York. 230 pp. $29.95 paperback.

Humankind has a long history of seeking definitive answers to explain the complex systems operating on our home planet. Our tremendous success in calculating phenomena like atomic behavior and planetary movement has given us a false sense of confidence in our ability to calculate any and all phenomena. Our quest for definitive solutions to perceived problems has generated a sense of “physics envy” and driven many disciplines toward math-based predictive models. Orrin Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis thoroughly discuss that our confidence in such models is misplaced. As a result, we are potentially increasing risk from natural hazards and have created a venue for ludicrous policy-based demands, such as certifying safety for tens of thousands of years at the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository.