The level of recognition of human impacts on climate, contained in the third assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001), surely represents a turning point in human history. Some impacts can now be factored into predictions of future states of the world's ecosystems, and, though some powerful countries may for the moment indicate otherwise, it is certainly more difficult now to ignore the concept of global human impacts on the environment and doubt their seriousness. But there are potential pit-falls in this progression; it worries me that attention to incremental albeit significant rises in sea level, for example, may divert serious concern away from the consequences of the ongoing intensive and extensive growth of human population, the sizeable global impact of which on the environment and human society can scarcely either be debated. Environmental science is challenging; it aspires to holism, but the resources and scientific tools are such that it can only very rarely be holistic at anything other than very small scale. And different disciplines can be disappointingly inarticulate in truly interdisciplinary work. Environmental science tilts at comprehensive global understanding, but the problems of extrapolating to that scale are for the most part insuperable. The scientists, typically reticent about erring beyond the disciplinary or geographical boundaries of their work, yet those most trained to deliver objective information, risk becoming an undervalued resource. The danger is that awkward strategic decisions will be made with much less certainty or at least consensus than they should.

The temperate peatlands are extensive, covering around 3.5 million km2 of land. They contain about 455 Gt of carbon, almost equivalent to the carbon stored in all of the living things on the surface of the planet, and representing around 25% of all the soil carbon on earth. These bogs are a sink for atmospheric carbon and their carbon uptake accounts for about 12% of current human emissions. They vary considerably in their form and structure and are an important resource for scientific research, including the study of past environments and climate change, and they are also valuable in environmental education. They are low in biodiversity, but their fauna and flora are distinctive and many groups are confined to this habitat. For all these reasons, the future conservation of peatlands is a matter for concern. Threats to peatlands come from direct human exploitation in the form of peat harvesting for energy and horticulture, and drainage for forestry. Rising environmental awareness should control both of these processes in the western world, but continued northern peatland losses are likely locally, especially in Asia. Peatland drainage for forestry or agriculture will result in losses of carbon to the atmosphere, adding to the greenhouse effect. Human population pressures, industrialization and urbanization are unlikely to have an important direct and immediate influence in the boreal zone. Fragmentation of the habitat is not an important consideration because bogs are by their very nature ‘island’ habitats. Acidification by aerial pollution may be a local problem close to sources, but the habitat is naturally acid and should not be severely affected. The input of aerial nutrients, however, particularly nitrogen, could have widespread impact on bogs, enhancing their productivity and altering their vegetation composition. The physical rehabilitation of bogs damaged by human activities presents many problems, particularly relating to the re-establishment of peat structure and vegetation, but the process can result in the re-formation of a carbon sink so it is worth the effort. Climate change is the most important consideration in its impact on bogs. Higher temperature (especially if accompanied by raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and increased nitrate deposition) will enhance productivity, but will also result in faster decomposition rates. The outcome of these opposing factors for peat formation will ultimately depend on the future pattern of precipitation. If, as seems most likely, summer conditions become warmer and drier in continental regions and winters become milder and wetter, the summer drought could cause peat loss and bog contraction. An excess of decomposition will lead to bogs becoming a carbon source and thus a positive feedback in global warming. Emissions of methane and nitrous oxide would add to the greenhouse gas problem, but likely oxidation of methane and low N2O production may well mean that this impact will not prove to be significant. Tree invasion of bogs as a consequence of summer drought could locally lead to increased water loss through transpiration, and higher heat absorption through albedo change. This will enhance the drying effect on the bog surface. Oceanic mires will be less severely affected if the expected increase in precipitation takes place in these regions. The most important overall factor in determining the future of the northern bogs is likely to be the quantity and pattern (both spatially and temporally) of future precipitation in the zone.

The large freshwater lakes of the world are an extremely valuable resource, not only because 68% of the global liquid surface fresh water is contained in them, but because of their importance to the economies, social structure, and viability of the riparian countries. This review provides decision makers with the knowledge of large lakes (≥ 500 km2) essential to establishing policies and implementing strategies compatible with sustainable development. This is achieved by considering the present state of the lakes, the extent of changes and factors causing them, long-term consequences of these changes, major threats and possible states of the lakes into the year 2025. Case studies of lakes are presented, namely the St Lawrence Great Lakes of North America as representatives of glacial scour lakes of North America, northern Europe and Asia, and the African Great Lakes as representatives of tropical tectonic lakes. Lake Baikal is also included because it is unique for its species, great age, and largest single volume of liquid surface fresh water. The Aral Sea is further included because of the ecological disaster following diversion of water away from its basin. The major impacts on large lakes are diversions, eutrophication, invasive species, land-use change, overexploitation of resources, and pollution. These impacts can or do affect all the representative lakes, but to varying degree. The St Lawrence Great Lakes have been severely impacted by eutrophication, land-use change, overfishing, invasive species and pollution. Eutrophication has been reversed for these lakes and constraints are now in place on land use change, such as shoreline alteration and destruction of wetlands. With the demise of most commercial fishing, overfishing is no longer as important. Invasive species have become a major problem as increasingly non-indigenous species gain access to the lakes. Pollution continues as a major impact. These problems are likely to continue and seriously impact use of the resources as well as bring about changes in the biota. Among the African Great Lakes, invasive species are a major problem in Lake Victoria, and eutrophication associated with land-use change and overexploitation of resources is a growing problem. Many endemic species have been lost and many are threatened, so that species associations will have changed by 2025. The Aral Sea continues to disappear and in the future, the remaining largest part of it will continue to become increasingly saline and eventually disappear. A small body of water will remain as a freshwater lake with a productive, although small, fishery. Lake Baikal shows evidence of pollution in the southern basin and is likely to be impacted by land-use changes, primarily logging. Some non-indigenous species are present, but so far, they are not a major problem. Overexploitation of resources in the watershed could lead to adverse impacts on inshore waters. Overfishing has been recognized and appears under control. The major threat to Baikal is continued and growing pollution. Climate change and pollution are global problems that will affect all lakes, large and small. At present, while some warming has occurred, climate change appears not to have impacted large lakes. Present studies on the Laurentian Great Lakes predict possible major impacts. Pollution, especially from persistent toxic substances such as PCBs, is a global problem. Diversion of water out or away from large lakes will become more of a threat as global human population growth continues and water supplies from rivers and ground water become depleted.

Saltmarshes are a major, widely distributed, intertidal habitat. They are dynamic systems, responding to changing environmental conditions. For centuries, saltmarshes have been subject to modification or destruction because of human activity. In this review, the range of factors influencing the survival of saltmarshes is discussed. Of critical importance are changes in relative sea level and in tidal range. Relative sea level is affected by changes in absolute sea level, changes in land level and the capacity of saltmarshes to accumulate and retain sediment. Many saltmarshes are starved of sediment because of catchment modification and coastal engineering, or exposed to erosive forces, which may be of natural origin or reflect human interference. The geographical distribution of individual saltmarsh species reflects climate, so that global climatic change will be reflected by changes in distribution and abundance of species, although the rate of change in communities dominated by perennial plants is difficult to predict. Humans have the ability to create impacts on saltmarshes at a range of scales from individual sites to globally. Pressures on the environment created by the continued increase in the human population, particularly in developing tropical countries, and the likely consequences of the enhanced greenhouse effect on both temperature and sea level give rise to particular concerns. Given the concentration of population growth and development in the coastal zone, and the potential sensitivity of saltmarsh to change in sea level, it is timely to review the present state of saltmarshes and to assess the likelihood of changes in the near (25 years) future. By 2025, global sea level rise and warming will have impacts on saltmarshes. However, the most extensive changes are likely to be the direct result of human actions at local or regional scales. Despite increasing recognition of the ecological value of saltmarsh, major projects involving loss of saltmarshes but deemed to be in the public interest will be approved. Pressures are likely to be particularly severe in the tropics, where very little is known about saltmarshes. At the local scale the cumulative impacts of activities, which individually have minor effects, may be considerable. Managers of saltmarshes will be faced with difficult choices including questions as to whether traditional uses should be retained, whether invasive alien species or native species increasing in abundance should be controlled, whether planned retreat is an appropriate response to rising relative sea level or whether measures can be taken to reduce erosion. Decisions will need to take into account social and economic as well as ecological concerns.

Pollution, mining, disruption of sand transport and tourism development widely affect sandy shores, and these systems may be subject to increased erosion in future, yet there have been few attempts to review them. The present review focuses largely on ocean sandy beaches, providing an introduction to much of the relevant literature, and predicting possible states of the system by 2025. Sandy shores are dynamic harsh environments, the action of waves and tides largely determining species diversity, biomass and community structure. There is an interchange of sand, biological matter and other materials between dunes, intertidal beaches and surf zones. Storms and associated erosion present the most substantial universal hazard to the fauna. Human-related perturbations vary from beach to beach; however, structures or activities that impede natural sand transport or alter the sand budget commonly lead to severe erosion, often of a permanent nature. Many beaches also suffer intermittent or chronic pollution, and direct human interference includes off-road vehicles, mining, trampling, bait collecting, beach cleaning and ecotourism. These interferences typically have a negative impact on the system. Identified long-term trends include chronic beach erosion, often largely due to natural causes, as well as increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation and changes related to global warming. It is not expected that predicted temperature changes will have dramatic effects on the world's beaches by 2025, but the expected rise in sea level, if coupled with an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of storms, as predicted for some regions, is likely to lead to escalating erosion and consequent loss of habitat. It is suggested that increased UV radiation is unlikely to have significant effects. Increases in coastal human populations and tourism, thus increasing pressure on the shore, while serious, may be largely offset in developed and developing countries by better management resulting from greater understanding of the factors governing sandy-shore systems and better communication with beach managers and developers. Beach nourishment is likely to become more widely practised. However, the continuing hardening of surfaces in and above the dunes is bound to be damaging. Human pressures in many underdeveloped countries show no signs of being mitigated by conservation measures; it is likely that their sandy shores will continue to deteriorate during the first quarter of this century. A long-term trend that cannot be ignored is the excessive amount of nitrogen entering the sea, particularly affecting beaches in estuaries and sheltered lagoons. The data presently available and the uncertainty of a number of predictions do not permit of quantitative assessment or modelling of the state of the world's sandy shores by the year 2025, but some tentative, qualitative predictions are offered.

Estuaries exhibit a wide array of human impacts that can compromise their ecological integrity, because of rapid population growth and uncontrolled development in many coastal regions worldwide. Long-term environmental problems plaguing estuaries require remedial actions to improve the viability and health of these valuable coastal systems. Detailed examination of the effects of pollution inputs, the loss and alteration of estuarine habitat, and the role of other anthropogenic stress indicates that water quality in estuaries, particularly urbanized systems, is often compromised by the overloading of nutrients and organic matter, the influx of pathogens, and the accumulation of chemical contaminants. In addition, the destruction of fringing wetlands and the loss and alteration of estuarine habitats usually degrade biotic communities. Estuaries are characterized by high population densities of microbes, plankton, benthic flora and fauna, and nekton; however, these organisms tend to be highly vulnerable to human activities in coastal watersheds and adjoining embayments. Trends suggest that by 2025 estuaries will be most significantly impacted by habitat loss and alteration associated with a burgeoning coastal population, which is expected to approach six billion people. Habitat destruction has far reaching ecological consequences, modifying the structure, function, and controls of estuarine ecosystems and contributing to the decline of biodiversity. Other anticipated high priority problems are excessive nutrient and sewage inputs to estuaries, principally from land-based sources. These inputs will lead to the greater incidence of eutrophication as well as hypoxia and anoxia. During the next 25 years, overfishing is expected to become a more pervasive and significant anthropogenic factor, also capable of mediating global-scale change to estuaries. Chemical contaminants, notably synthetic organic compounds, will remain a serious problem, especially in heavily industrialized areas. Freshwater diversions appear to be an emerging global problem as the expanding coastal population places greater demands on limited freshwater supplies for agricultural, domestic, and industrial needs. Altered freshwater flows could significantly affect nutrient loads, biotic community structure, and the trophodynamics of estuarine systems. Ecological impacts that will be less threatening, but still damaging, are those caused by introduced species, sea level rise, coastal subsidence, and debris/litter. Although all of these disturbances can alter habitats and contribute to shifts in the composition of estuarine biotic communities, the overall effect will be partial changes to these ecosystem components. Several strategies may mitigate future impacts.