Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t7fkt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T01:59:39.209Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Social-ecological systems as complex adaptive systems: modeling and policy implications

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 November 2012

Simon Levin ,
Tasos Xepapadeas ,
Anne-Sophie Crépin ,
Jon Norberg ,
Aart de Zeeuw ,
Carl Folke ,
Terry Hughes ,
Kenneth Arrow ,
Scott Barrett  and
Gretchen Daily
...Show all authors
Simon Levin
Affiliation:
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Tasos Xepapadeas
Affiliation:
Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece. E-mail: [email protected]
Anne-Sophie Crépin
Affiliation:
The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Box 50005, 10405 Stockholm, Sweden; and Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected]
Jon Norberg
Affiliation:
Stockholm Resilience Centre and Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected]
Aart de Zeeuw
Affiliation:
Tilburg Sustainability Center, Tilburg University, The Netherlands; and The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Stockholm, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected]
Carl Folke
Affiliation:
The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Stockholm, Sweden; and Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected]
Terry Hughes
Affiliation:
ARC Center of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Kenneth Arrow
Affiliation:
Economics Department, Stanford University, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Scott Barrett
Affiliation:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Gretchen Daily
Affiliation:
Center for Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, Stanford University, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Paul Ehrlich
Affiliation:
Center for Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, Stanford University, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Nils Kautsky
Affiliation:
Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected]
Karl-Göran Mäler
Affiliation:
The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Stockholm, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected]
Steve Polasky
Affiliation:
Departments of Applied Economics and Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, USA; and The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Stockholm, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected]
Max Troell
Affiliation:
The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Stockholm, Sweden; and Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected]
Jeffrey R. Vincent
Affiliation:
Nicholas School of the Environment and Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, USA; and The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Stockholm, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected]
Brian Walker
Affiliation:
CSIRO, Australia; and Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Systems linking people and nature, known as social-ecological systems, are increasingly understood as complex adaptive systems. Essential features of these complex adaptive systems – such as nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions, individual and spatial heterogeneity, and varying time scales – pose substantial challenges for modeling. However, ignoring these characteristics can distort our picture of how these systems work, causing policies to be less effective or even counterproductive. In this paper we present recent developments in modeling social-ecological systems, illustrate some of these challenges with examples related to coral reefs and grasslands, and identify the implications for economic and policy analysis.

Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 18 , Issue 2 , April 2013 , pp. 111 - 132
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anderies, J.M., Janssen, M.A., and Walker, B.H. (2002), ‘Grazing management, resilience, and the dynamics of a fire-driven rangeland system’, Ecosystems 5(1): 23–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderies, J.M., Rodriguez, A.A., Janssen, M.A., and Cifdaloz, O. (2007), ‘Panaceas, uncertainty, and the robust control framework in sustainability science’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104(39): 15194–15199.Google Scholar
Archibald, S., Staver, A.C., and Levin, S.A. (2011), ‘The evolution of human-driven fire regimes in Africa’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences; doi: 10.1073/pnas.1118648109.Google ScholarPubMed
Arrow, K.J. (1951), ‘An extension of the basic theorems of classical welfare economics’, Proceedings of the Second Berkeley Symposium, Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Arrow, K., Bolin, B., Costanza, R., et al. (1995), ‘Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment’, Science 268(5210): 520–521.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Athanassoglou, S. and Xepapadeas, A. (2012), ‘Pollution control with uncertain stock dynamics: when and how to be precautious’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 63(3): 304–320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Başar, T. and Olsder, G.J. (1982), Dynamic Non-Cooperative Game Theory, New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Bellwood, D., Hughes, T., Folke, C., and Nyström, M. (2004), ‘Confronting the coral reef crisis’, Nature 429: 827–833.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Berglund, N. and Gentz, B. (2003), ‘Geometric singular perturbation theory for stochastic differential equations’, Journal of Differential Equations 191: 1–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berkes, F. and Folke, C. (eds) (1998), Linking Social and Ecological Systems: Management Practices and Social Mechanisms for Building Resilience, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Biggs, R., Carpenter, S.R., and Brock, W.A. (2009), ‘Turning back from the brink: detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 106(3): 826–831.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bonabeau, E. (2002), ‘Adaptive agents, intelligence, and emergent human organization: capturing complexity through agent-based modeling: methods and techniques for simulating human systems’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 99: 7280–7287.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brock, W.A. and Durlauf, S.N. (1999), ‘A formal model of theory choice in science’, Economic Theory 14: 113–130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brock, W.A. and Starrett, D. (2003), ‘Managing systems with non-convex positive feedback’, Environmental and Resource Economics 26: 575–602.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brock, W. and Xepapadeas, A. (2003), ‘Valuing biodiversity from an economic perspective: a unified economic, ecological and genetic approach’, American Economic Review 93(5): 1597–1614.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brock, W. and Xepapadeas, A. (2004a), ‘Management of interacting species: regulation under nonlinearities and hysteresis’, Resource and Energy Economics 26(2): 137–156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brock, W. and Xepapadeas, A. (2004b), ‘Ecosystem management in models of antagonistic species coevolution’, DIVERSITAS Discussion Paper, [Available at] http://ideas.repec.org/p/crt/wpaper/0503.html.Google Scholar
Brock, W. and Xepapadeas, A. (2008), ‘Diffusion-induced instability and pattern formation in infinite horizon recursive optimal control’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 32: 2745–2787.Google Scholar
Brock, W. and Xepapadeas, A. (2010), ‘Pattern formation, spatial externalities and regulation in coupled economic-ecological systems’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 59(2): 149–164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conlisk, J. (1996), ‘Why bounded rationality?’, Journal of Economic Literature 34(2): 669–700.Google Scholar
Couzin, I.D., Krause, J., Franks, N.R., and Levin, S.A. (2005), ‘Effective leadership and decision-making in animal groups on the move’, Nature 433: 513–516.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Couzin, I.D., Ioannou, C.C, Demirel, G., et al. (2011), ‘Uninformed individuals promote democratic consensus in animal groups’, Science 332(6062): 1578–1580.Google Scholar
Crépin, A.-S. (2007), ‘Using fast and slow processes to manage resources with thresholds’, Environmental and Resource Economics 36: 191–213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crépin, A.-S., Biggs, R., Polasky, S., Troell, M., and de Zeeuw, A. (2012), ‘Regime shifts and management’, Ecological Economics 84: 15–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crépin, A.-S. and Lindahl, T. (2009), ‘Grazing games: sharing common property resources with complex dynamics’, Environmental and Resource Economics 44: 29–46.Google Scholar
Crépin, A.-S., Norberg, J., and Mäler, K.-G. (2011), ‘Coupled economic-ecological systems with slow and fast dynamics – modelling and analysis method’, Ecological Economics 70(8): 1448–1458.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Debreu, G. (1959), Theory of Value, New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Diekert, F.K., Hjermann, D.Ø., Nævdal, E., and Stenseth, N.-C. (2010), ‘Non-cooperative exploitation of multi-cohort fisheries – the role of gear selectivity in the North-East Arctic cod fishery’, Resources and Energy Economics 32: 8–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Durrett, R.T. and Levin, S.A. (1994), ‘The importance of being discrete (and spatial)’, Theoretical Population Biology 46: 363–394.Google Scholar
Ehrlich, P.R. and Levin, S.A. (2005), ‘The evolution of norms’, PloS Biology 3(6): 0943–0948, e194.Google Scholar
Elmhirst, T., Connolly, S.R., and Hughes, T.P. (2009), ‘Connectivity, regime shifts and the resilience of coral reefs’, Coral Reefs 28(4): 949–957.Google Scholar
Estes, J.A. and Palmisano, J.F. (1974), ‘Sea otters: their role in structuring nearshore communities’, Science 185: 1058–1060.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fenichel, N. (1979), ‘Geometric singular perturbation theory for ordinary differential equations’, Journal of Differential Equations 31: 53–98.Google Scholar
Flierl, G., Grünbaum, D., Levin, S.A., and Olson, D. (1999), ‘From individuals to aggregations: the interplay between behavior and physics’, Journal of Theoretical Biology 196: 397–454.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Folke, C., Carpenter, S.R., Walker, B., Scheffer, M., Chapin, T., and Rockström, J. (2010), ‘Resilience thinking: integrating resilience, adaptability and transformability’, Ecology and Society 15(4): 20.Google Scholar
Geddes, P. (1915), Cities in Evolution, London: Williams.Google Scholar
Genieys, S., Volpert, V., and Auger, P. (2006), ‘Pattern and waves for a model in population dynamics with nonlocal consumption of resources’, Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena 1(1): 65–82.Google Scholar
Goetz, R. and Zilberman, D. (2000), ‘The dynamics of spatial pollution: the case of phosphorus runoff from agricultural land’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 24: 143–163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grimm, V. and Railsback, S.F. (2005), Individual Based Modeling and Ecology, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Grimsrud, K. and Huffaker, R. (2006), ‘Solving multidimensional bioeconomic problems with singular-perturbation reduction methods: application to managing pest resistance to pesticidal crops’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 51: 336–353.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gunderson, L.H. and Pritchard, L. Jr. (eds) (2002), Resilience and the Behavior of Large-Scale Systems, Washington, DC: Island Press.Google Scholar
Guttormsen, A.G., Kristofersson, D., and Nævdal, E. (2008), ‘Optimal management of renewable resources with Darwinian selection induced by harvesting’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 56(2): 167–179.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henderson, V. and Thisse, J. (eds) (2004), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Amsterdam: Elsevier.Google Scholar
Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E.H. and Scheffer, M. (2011), ‘Global resilience of tropical forest and savanna to critical transitions’, Science 334(6053): 232–235.Google Scholar
Holling, C.S. (1973), ‘Resilience and stability of ecological systems’, Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 4: 1–23.Google Scholar
Huffaker, R. and Hotchkiss, R. (2006), ‘Economic dynamics of reservoir sedimentation management: optimal control with singularly perturbed equations of motion’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 30: 2553–2575.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Janssen, M.A., Anderies, J.M., and Walker, B.H. (2004), ‘Robust strategies for managing rangelands with multiple stable attractors’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 47: 140–162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, A.M. (1982), ‘Status of Alaska sea otter populations and developing conflicts with fisheries’, US Fish & Wildlife Publications Paper No. 42, [Available at] http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/usfwspubs/42.Google Scholar
Kossioris, G., Plexoysakis, M., Xepapadeas, A., de Zeeuw, A., and Mäler, K.-G. (2008), ‘Feedback Nash equilibria for non-linear differential games in pollution control’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 32: 1312–1331.Google Scholar
Kossioris, G., Plexoysakis, M., Xepapadeas, A., and de Zeeuw, A. (2011), ‘On the optimal taxation of common-pool resources’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 35(11): 1868–1879.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krugman, P. (1996), The Self-Organising Economy, Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.Google Scholar
Levin, S.A. (1974), ‘Dispersion and population interactions’, American Naturalist 104: 207–228.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levin, S.A. (1998), ‘Ecosystems and the biosphere as complex adaptive systems’, Ecosystems 1: 431–436.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levin, S.A. (1999a), Fragile Dominion: Complexity and the Commons, Reading, MA: Perseus Books.Google Scholar
Levin, S.A. (1999b), ‘Towards a science of ecological management’, Conservation Ecology 3(2): 6, [Available at] http://www.consecol.org/vol3/iss2/art6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levin, S.A. (2000), ‘Multiple scales and the maintenance of biodiversity’, Ecosystems 3: 498–506.Google Scholar
Levin, S.A. (2006), ‘Learning to live in a global commons: socioeconomic challenges for a sustainable environment’, Ecological Research 21(3): 328–333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levin, S.A. and Lubchenco, J. (2008), ‘Resilience, robustness, and marine ecosystem-based management’, Bioscience 58(1): 27–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lovelock, J.E. (1979), Gaia: A New Look at Life on Earth, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Lucas, R.E. (2001), ‘Externalities and cities’, Review of Economic Dynamics 4: 245–274.Google Scholar
Lucas, R.E. and Rossi-Hansberg, E. (2002), ‘On the internal structure of cities’, Econometrica 70(4): 1445–1476.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ludwig, D., Jones, D., and Holling, C.S. (1978), ‘Qualitative analysis of insect outbreak systems: the spruce budworm and forest’, Journal of Animal Ecology 47: 315–332.Google Scholar
Mäler, K.-G., Xepapadeas, A., and de Zeeuw, A. (2003), ‘The economics of shallow lakes’, Environmental and Resource Economics 26(4): 603–624.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
May, R.M., Levin, S.A., and Sugihara, G. (2008), ‘Complex systems: ecology for bankers’ Nature 451: 893–895.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Moberg, F. and Folke, C. (1999), ‘Ecological goods and services of coral reef ecosystems’, Ecological Economics 29: 215–233.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mollison, D. (1977), ‘Spatial contact models for ecological and epidemic spread’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 39(3): 283–326.Google Scholar
Murray, J. (2003), Mathematical Biology, 3rd ednBerlin: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naidu, D. (2002), ‘Singular perturbations and time scales in control theory and applications: an overview’, Dynamics of Continuous, Discrete and Impulsive Systems 9: 233–278.Google Scholar
Norberg, J., Swaney, D.P., Dushoff, J., Lin, J., Casagrandi, R., and Levin, S. (2001), ‘Phenotypic diversity and ecosystem functioning in changing environments: a theoretical framework’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 98(20): 11376–11381.Google Scholar
Okubo, A. and Levin, S. (2001), Diffusion and Ecological Problems: Modern Perspectives, 2nd ednBerlin: Springer.Google Scholar
Olsson, P., Folke, C., and Berkes, F. (2004), ‘Adaptive comanagement for building resilience in social-ecological systems’, Environmental Management 34(1): 75–90.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ostrom, E. (2005), Understanding Institutional Diversity, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Ostrom, E., Dietz, T., Dolšak, N., Stern, P.C., Stonich, S., and Weber, E.U. (eds) (2002), The Drama of the Commons, Washington, DC: Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council.Google Scholar
Palmer, M.A, Reidy Liermann, C.A., Nilsson, C., Flörke, M., Alcamo, J., Lake, P.S., and Bond, N. (2008), ‘Climate change and the world's river basins: anticipating management options’, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 6(2): 81–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pigou, A.C. (1920), The Economics of Welfare, London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Pizer, W.A. (2003), ‘Climate change catastrophes’, Discussion Paper No. 03–31, Washington, DC: Resources for the Future.Google Scholar
Polasky, S., Carpenter, S.R., Folke, C., and Keeler, B. (2011a), ‘Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change’, Trends in Ecology and Evolution 26: 398–404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Polasky, S., de Zeeuw, A., and Wagener, F. (2011b), ‘Optimal management with potential regime shifts’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 62(2): 229–240.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Potts, M.D. and Vincent, J.R. (2008), ‘Harvest and extinction in multi-species communities’, Ecological Economics 65: 336–347.Google Scholar
Quah, D. (2002), ‘Spatial agglomeration dynamics’, American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings 92: 247–252.Google Scholar
Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., et al. (2009), ‘A safe operating space for humanity’, Nature 461: 472–475.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sanchirico, J. and Wilen, J. (1999), ‘Bioeconomics of spatial exploitation in a patchy environment’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 37(2): 129–150.Google Scholar
Sanchirico, J. and Wilen, J. (2005), ‘Optimal spatial management of renewable resources: matching policy scope to ecosystem scale’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 50: 23–46.Google Scholar
Sanchirico, J., Hastings, A., Malvadka, L., and Wilen, J. (2006), ‘When are no-take zones an economically optimal fishery management strategy?’ Ecological Applications 16: 1643–1659.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Scheffer, M. (2009), Critical Transitions in Nature and Society, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W.A., et al. (2009), ‘Early-warning signals for critical transitions’, Nature 461: 53–59.Google Scholar
Skellam, J.G. (1973), ‘The formulation and interpretation of mathematical models of diffusion processes in population biology’, in Bartlett, M.S. and Hiorns, R.W.(eds), The Mathematical Theory of the Dynamics of Biological Populations, New York: Academic Press, pp. 63–85.Google Scholar
Skiba, A.K. (1978), ‘Optimal growth with a convex-concave production’, Econometrica 46(3): 527–539.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, A. (1776), An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. London: Strahan and Cadell.Google Scholar
Staver, A.C., Archibald, S., and Levin, S. (2011a), ‘Tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa: rainfall and fire constrain forest and savanna as alternative stable states’, Ecology 92(5): 1063–1072.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Staver, A.C., Archibald, S., and Levin, S. (2011b), ‘The global extent and determinants of savanna and forest as alternative biome states’, Science 334: 230.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sterner, T., Troell, M., Vincent, J., et al. (2006), ‘Quick fixes for the environment: part of the solution or part of the problem?’, Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development 48(10): 20–27.Google Scholar
Turing, A. (1952), ‘The chemical basis of morphogenesis’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London 237: 37–72.Google Scholar
Vandermeer, J.H. (1989), The Ecology of Intercropping, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vardas, G. and Xepapadeas, A. (2010), ‘Model uncertainty, ambiguity and the precautionary principle: implications for biodiversity management’, Environmental and Resource Economics 45: 379–404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
von Hayek, F. (1929), Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle, London: Jonathan Cape.Google Scholar
von Hayek, F. (1931), Prices and Production, London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Wasow, W. (1965), Asymptotic Expansions for Ordinary Differential Equations, New York: Dover Phoenix Editions.Google Scholar
Worm, B., Barbier, E.B., Beaumont, N., et al. (2006), ‘Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services’, Science 314(5800): 787–790.Google Scholar