Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-gb8f7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T08:05:05.508Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The impact of climate change on agro-ecological zones: evidence from Africa

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 August 2012

Namrata Kala ,
Pradeep Kurukulasuriya  and
Robert Mendelsohn
Namrata Kala
Affiliation:
Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, 195 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511, USA. Email: [email protected]
Pradeep Kurukulasuriya
Affiliation:
United Nations Development Program, USA. Email: [email protected]
Robert Mendelsohn
Affiliation:
Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, USA. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This study predicts the impact of climate change on African agriculture. We use a generalized linear model (GLM) framework to estimate the relationship between the proportion of various Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) in a district and climate. Using three climate scenarios, we project how climate change will cause AEZs to shift, causing changes in acreage and net revenue per hectare of cropland. Our results predict that Africa will suffer heavy annual welfare losses by 2070–2100, ranging between US$14 billion and US$70 billion, depending on the climate scenario and cropland measure considered.

Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 17 , Issue 6 , December 2012 , pp. 663 - 687
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adams, R.M., Fleming, R.A., Chang, C., McCarl, B.A., and Rosenzweig, C. (1995), ‘A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture’, Climate Change 30(2): 147–167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aitchison, J. (2003), ‘Compositional data analysis: where are we and where should we be heading?’, Mathematical Geology 37(7): 829–850.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Basist, A., Grody, N.C., Peterson, T.C., and Williams, C.N. (1998), ‘Using the special sensor microwave/imager to monitor land surface temperatures, wetness, and snow cover’, Journal of Applied Meteorology 37(9): 888–911.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boer, G., Flato, G., and Ramsden, D. (2000), ‘A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate for the 21st century’, Climate Dynamics 16(6): 427–450.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, D.R. and Wermuth, N. (1996), Multivariate Dependencies, London: Chapman and Hall.Google Scholar
Darwin, R. (2004), ‘Effects of greenhouse gas emissions on world agriculture, food consumption, and economic welfare’, Climatic Change 66(1): 191–238.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dinar, A., Hassan, R., Mendelsohn, R., and Benhin, J. (2008), Climate Change and Agriculture in Africa, London: Earthscan.Google Scholar
Emori, S., Nozawa, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., Namaguti, A., and Kimoto, M. (1999), ‘Coupled oceanatmosphere model experiments of future climate change with an explicit representation of sulfate aerosol scattering’, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 77(6): 1299–1307.Google Scholar
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) (1978), Agro-Ecological Zones Project. Vol 1. Methodology and Results for Africa, World Soil Resources Report #48, Rome: FAO.Google Scholar
Fischer, G. and Van Velthuizen, H.T. (1996), Climate Change and Global Agricultural Potential Project: A Case Study of Kenya, Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.Google Scholar
Giri, C., Zhu, Z., and Reed, B. (2005), ‘A comparative analysis of the Global Land Cover 2000 and MODIS land cover data sets’, Remote Sensing of Environment 94(1): 123–132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldberger, A.S. (1968), ‘The interpretation and estimation of Cobb–Douglas functions’, Econometrica 35(3–4): 464–472.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hertel, T.W, Burke, M.B., and Lobell, D.B. (2010), ‘The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030’, GTAP Working Paper No. 59, West Lafayette: Center for Global Trade Analysis.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007a), The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007b), Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
IWMI (International Water Management Institute) and University of Colorado (2003), ‘Hydroclimatic data for the GEF/CEEPA/World Bank Project on Regional Climate, Water and Agriculture: Impacts on and Adaptation of Agro-ecological Systems in Africa, IWMI and Uiversity of Colorado.Google Scholar
Kennedy, P. (1983), ‘Practitioner's corner: logarithmic dependent variables and prediction bias’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 45(4): 89–392.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kieschnick, R. and McCullough, B.D. (2003), ‘Regression analysis of variates observed on (0,1): percentages, proportions, and fractions’, Statistical Modelling 3(3): 193–213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kurukulasuriya, P. and Mendelsohn, R. (2008), ‘A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland’, African Journal of Agriculture and Resource Economics 2(1): 1–23.Google Scholar
Kurukulasuriya, P., Mendelsohn, R., et al. (2006), ‘Will African agriculture survive climate change?’, World Bank Economic Review 20(3): 367–388.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lotsch, A. (2007), ‘Sensitivity of cropping patterns in Africa to transient climate change’, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4289, Washington, DC: World Bank.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCullagh, P. and Nelder, J.A. (1989), Generalized Linear Models (2nd ed.), New York: Chapman and Hall.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mendelsohn, R. and Dinar, A. (2009), Climate Change and Agriculture: An Economic Analysis of Global Impacts, Adaptation, and Distributional Effects, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W., and Shaw, D. (1994), ‘Measuring the impact of global warming on agriculture’, American Economic Review 84(4): 753–771.Google Scholar
Ospina, R. and Ferrari, S. (2010), ‘Inflated beta distributions’, Statistical Papers 51(1): 111–126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Papke, L.E. and Wooldridge, J.E. (1996), ‘Econometric methods for fractional response variables with an application to 401 (K) plan participation rates’, Journal of Applied Econometrics 11(6): 619–632.3.0.CO;2-1>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parry, M.L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M., and Fischer, G. (2004), ‘Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios’, Global Environmental Change 14(1): 53–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reilly, J., Hohmann, N., and Kane, S. (1994), ‘Climate change and agricultural trade: who benefits, who loses?’, Global Environmental Change 4(1): 24–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenzweig, C. and Parry, M. (1994), ‘Potential impact of climate change on world food supply’, Nature 367(1): 133–138.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
USGS (United States Geological Survey) (2004) Global 30 Arc Second Elevation Data, USGS National Mapping Division, EROS Data Centre, [Available at] http://eros.usgs.gov/#/Find_Data/Products_and_Data_Available/GTOPO30.Google Scholar
Washington, W.M., Weatherly, J.W., Meehl, G.A., Semtner, A.J. Jr., Bettge, T.W., Craig, A.P., Strand, W.G. Jr., Arblaster, J.M., Wayland, V.B., James, R., and Zhang, Y. (2000), ‘Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations’, Climate Dynamics 10–11: 755–774.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
World Bank (2003), Africa Rainfall and Temperature Evaluation System (ARTES), Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
World Bank (2009), Africa Development Indicators, [Available at] http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/africa-development-indicators.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Kala Supplementary Material

Appendix

Download Kala Supplementary Material(PDF)
PDF 190.4 KB