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Economic growth, energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions in India: 1990-2020

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 March 2001

N.S. MURTHY ,
M. PANDA  and
J. PARIKH
N.S. MURTHY
Affiliation:
Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), General Vaidya Marg, Goregaon (East), Mumbai 400 065, India
M. PANDA
Affiliation:
Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), General Vaidya Marg, Goregaon (East), Mumbai 400 065, India
J. PARIKH
Affiliation:
Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), General Vaidya Marg, Goregaon (East), Mumbai 400 065, India
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Abstract

This article investigates the linkages between economic growth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in India by analysing the structure of production and consumption in the Indian economy. We begin with an examination of the consumption pattern of six different income classes, three each in urban and rural India, and then estimate the direct and indirect energy and CO2 emission coefficients for supporting production in various sectors. This provides us with a basis for estimating the energy and emission content of the consumption baskets of the different income classes in India. CO2 emissions are projected to increase from 0.18 tonnes of carbon (tC) per capita in 1990 to about 0.62 tC per capita in 2020 under the reference scenario which corresponds to a GDP growth rate of 5.5% per annum. We then analyse scenarios of technology improvement in which emissions are reduced to 0.47 tC per capita in 2020. Our projection methodology takes into account the changes in aggregate consumpti on pattern due to mobility of the population across the income classes and from rural to urban areas, besides the increase in per capita consumption of all classes.

Type
Policy Options
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 2 , Issue 2 , May 1997 , pp. 173 - 193
Copyright
© 1997 Cambridge University Press

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Footnotes

This article is based on a report prepared for INFRAS, Zurich (Swiss National Science Foundation, 1996). We wish to acknowledge helpful discussions during the course of the project with J. Bandyopadhyay of the International Academy of the Environment, Geneva, and O. Schwank of INFRAS. We also found the comments made by the participants at the project workshop at IGIDR most useful. Two of us, N.S. Murthy and J. Parikh, were visiting the United Nations University/Institute of Advanced Studies, Tokyo when the first version of this paper was completed and wish to thank them for their generous facilities.