Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-hc48f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T04:39:30.351Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Does choice of drought index influence estimates of drought-induced rice losses in India?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 April 2020

Francisco Fontes Open the ORCID record for Francisco Fontes [Opens in a new window] ,
Ashley Gorst  and
Charles Palmer
Francisco Fontes*
Affiliation:
Monitoring and Analyzing Food and Agricultural Policies (MAFAP) program, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy
Ashley Gorst
Affiliation:
Vivid Economics Ltd., London, UK
Charles Palmer
Affiliation:
Department of Geography and Environment & Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Drought events have critical impacts on agricultural production yet there is little consensus on how these should be measured and defined, with implications for drought research and policy. We develop a flexible rainfall-temperature drought index that captures all dry events and we classify these as Type 1 (above-average cooling degree days) and Type 2 droughts (below-average cooling degree days). Applied to a panel dataset of Indian districts over 1966–2009, Type 2 droughts are found to have negative marginal impacts comparable to those of Type 1 droughts. Irrigation more effectively reduces Type 2 drought-induced yield losses than Type 1 yield losses. Over time, Type 1 drought losses have declined while Type 2 losses have risen. Estimates of average yield losses due to Type 1 droughts are reduced by up to 27 per cent when Type 2 droughts are omitted. The associated ex-post economic costs in terms of rice production are underestimated by up to 124 per cent.

Keywords

agricultureclimatedroughtIndiarainfallricetemperature

JEL classification

Q10: General Q54: Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming Q56: Environment and Development • Environment and Trade • Sustainability • Environmental Accounts and Accounting • Environmental Equity • Population Growth Q19: Other
Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 25 , Issue 5 , October 2020 , pp. 459 - 481
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) (2020). Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Auffhammer, M, Ramanathan, V and Vincent, J (2012) Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India. Climatic Change 111, 411–424.10.1007/s10584-011-0208-4CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Birthal, P, Negi, D, Khan, M and Agarwal, S (2015) Is Indian agriculture becoming resilient to droughts? Evidence from rice production systems. Food Policy 56, 1–12.10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.07.005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burgess, R, Deschênes, O, Donaldson, D and Greenstone, M (2014) The unequal effects of weather and climate change: evidence from mortality in India. Mimeo. Available at http://econ.lse.ac.uk/staff/rburgess/wp/WD_master_140516_v3.pdf.Google Scholar
Chen, S, Chen, X and Xu, J (2016) Impacts of climate change on agriculture: evidence from China. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 76, 105–124.10.1016/j.jeem.2015.01.005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dercon, S (2008) Fate and fear: risk and its consequences in Africa. Journal of African Economies 17, ii97–ii127.10.1093/jae/ejn019CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deschênes, O and Greenstone, M (2007) The economic impacts of climate change: evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather. American Economic Review 97, 354–385.10.1257/aer.97.1.354CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diffenbaugh, N, Swain, D and Touma, D (2015) Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112, 3931–3936.10.1073/pnas.1422385112CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Elbers, C, Gunning, JW and Kinsey, B (2007) Growth and risk: methodology and micro evidence. World Bank Economic Review 21, 1–20.10.1093/wber/lhl008CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fishman, R (2016) More uneven distributions overturn benefits of higher precipitation for crop yields. Environmental Research Letters 11, 024004.10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Food and Agriculture Organization (2013) UN lays foundations for more drought resilient societies. Available at http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/172030/icode/.Google Scholar
Gadgil, S and Gadgil, S (2006) The Indian monsoon, GDP and agriculture. Economic and Political Weekly 41, 86–91.Google Scholar
Gammans, M, Mérel, P and Ortiz-Bobea, A (2017) Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France. Environmental Research Letters 12, 054007.10.1088/1748-9326/aa6b0cCrossRefGoogle Scholar
GoI, Ministry of Agriculture (2009) Manual for Drought Management. Technical report, New Delhi: Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Government of India.Google Scholar
Goland, C (1993) Field scattering as agricultural risk management: a case study from Cuyo Cuyo, Department of Puno, Peru. Mountain Research and Development 13, 317–338.10.2307/3673760CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guiteras, R (2009) The impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. Mimeo. Available at http://econdse.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/guiteras_climate_change_indian_agriculture_sep_2009.pdf.Google Scholar
ICRISAT (2012) District Level Database Documentation. Technical report, ICRISAT-ICAR-IRRI Collaborative Research Project.Google Scholar
Indian Meteorological Department, Government of India (undated) Frequently Asked Questions: FAQ. Available at http://www.imdsikkim.gov.in/wxfaq.pdf.Google Scholar
IPCC (2012) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Jain, SK and Kumar, V (2012) Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Current Science 102, 37–49.Google Scholar
Jayachandran, S (2006) Selling labor low: wage responses to productivity shocks in developing countries. Journal of Political Economy 114, 538–575.10.1086/503579CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jodha, NS (1978) Effectiveness of farmers’ adjustment to risk. Economic and Political Weekly 13, A38–A48.Google Scholar
Koshy, J and Vasudeva, V (2016) No more ‘droughts’ in India, says IMD. The Hindu, January 12. Available at http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/No-more-%E2%80%98droughts%E2%80%99-in-India-says-IMD/article13994381.ece.Google Scholar
Lamaoui, M, Jemo, M, Datla, R and Bekkaoui, F (2018) Heat and drought stresses in crops and approaches for their mitigation. Frontiers in Chemistry 6, doi.org/10.3389/fchem.2018.00026.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lobell, D and Gourdji, S (2012) The influence of climate change on global crop production. Plant Physiology 160, 1686–1697.10.1104/pp.112.208298CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lobell, DB, Sibley, A and Ortiz-Monasterio, JI (2012) Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nature Climate Change 2, 186–189.10.1038/nclimate1356CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lobell, DB, Roberts, MJ, Schlenker, W, Braun, N, Little, BB, Rejesus, RM and Hammer, GL (2014) Greater sensitivity to drought accompanies maize yield increase in the US Midwest. Science (New York, N.Y.) 344, 516–519.10.1126/science.1251423CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Luo, Q (2011) Temperature thresholds and crop production: a review. Climatic Change 109, 583–598.10.1007/s10584-011-0028-6CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mechler, R, Hochrainer, S, Kull, D, Chopde, S, Singh, P and Wajih, S (2008) Uttar Pradesh drought cost-benefit analysis, from risk to resilience. Working Paper No. 5. Moench M, Caspari E and Pokhrel A (eds), ISET, ISET-Nepal and ProVention, Kathmandu, Nepal.Google Scholar
Mishra, A and Singh, V (2010) A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology 391, 202–216.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oviedo, AM and Moroz, H (2014) A review of the ex post and ex ante impacts of risk. Background Paper, World Development Report, The World Bank.Google Scholar
Pai, DS, Nair, SA and Ramanathan, AN (2013) Long term climatology and trends of heat waves over India during the recent 50 years (1961–2010). Mausam 64, 585–604.Google Scholar
Pai, DS, Sridhar, L, Rajeevan, M, Sreejith, OP, Satbhai, NS and Mukhopadyay, B (2014) Development of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) long period (1901–2010) daily gridded rainfall data set over India and its comparison with existing data sets over the region. Quarterly Journal of Meteorology, Hydrology and Geophysics 65, 433–436.Google Scholar
Pandey, S, Bhandari, H and Hardy, B (2007) Economic Costs of Drought and Rice Farmers’ Coping Mechanisms: A Cross-Country Comparative Analysis. Los Banos, Philippines: International Rice Research Institute.Google Scholar
Pauw, K, Thurlow, J, Bachu, M and Van Seventer, DE (2011) The economic costs of extreme weather events: a hydrometeorological CGE analysis for Malawi. Environment and Development Economics 16, 177–198.10.1017/S1355770X10000471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prasad, PVV, Staggenborg, SA and Ristić, Z (2008) Impacts of drought and/or heat stress on physiological, developmental, growth, and yield processes of crop plants. In Ahuja, LH and Saseendran, SA (eds), Response of Crops to Limited Water: Understanding and Modelling Water Stress Effects on Plant Growth Processes. Madison, WI: ASA-CSSA, pp. 301–355.Google Scholar
Rosenzweig, MR and Wolpin, KI (1993) Credit market constraints, consumption smoothing, and the accumulation of durable production assets in low-income countries: investments in bullocks in India. Journal of Political Economy 101, 223–244.10.1086/261874CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sarkar, J (2011) Drought, its impacts and management: scenario in India. In Shaw, R and Nguyen, H (eds), Droughts in Asian Monsoon Region. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp. 67–66.10.1108/S2040-7262(2011)0000008010CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sarsons, H (2015) Rainfall and conflict: a cautionary tale. Journal of Development Economics 115, 62–72.10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.12.007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schlenker, W and Lobell, DB (2010). Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture. Environmental Research Letters 5, 014010.10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014010CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schlenker, W and Roberts, M (2009) Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106, 15594–15598.10.1073/pnas.0906865106CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Shah, T and Kishore, A (2009) Will the impact of the 2009 drought be different from 2002? Economic and Political Weekly 44, 11–14.Google Scholar
Shah, M and Steinberg, B (2017) Drought of opportunities: contemporaneous and long term impacts of rainfall shocks on human capital. Journal of Political Economy 125, 527–561.10.1086/690828CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sharma, KD (2011) Rain-fed agriculture could meet the challenges of food security in India. Current Science 100, 1615–1616.Google Scholar
Srivastava, AK, Rajeevan, M and Kshirsagar, SR (2009) Development of a high spatial resolution daily gridded temperature data set (1969–2005) for the Indian Region. Atmospheric Science Letters 10, 249–254.Google Scholar
Vicente-Serrano, S, Lopez-Moreno, L, Begueria, S, Lorenzo-Lacruz, J, Sanchez-Lorenzo, A, Garcia-Ruiz, J, Azorin-Molina, C, Moran-Tejeda, E, Revuelto, J, Trigo, R, Coelho, F and Espejo, F (2014) Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in Southern Europe. Environmental Research Letters, 9, 044001.10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilhite, DA (2000a) Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions. In Wilhite, DA (ed.), Drought: A Global Assessment, vol. I. London: Routledge, pp. 3–18.Google Scholar
Wilhite, DA (2000b) Drought: A Global Assessment. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
World Meteorological Organization and Global Water Partnership (2017) Benefits of action and costs of inaction: drought mitigation and preparedness – a literature review (Gerber N and Mirzabaev A). Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) Working Paper 1. WMO, Geneva, Switzerland and GWP, Stockholm, Sweden.Google Scholar
Yu, T and Babcock, B (2010) Are U.S. Corn and soybeans becoming more drought tolerant? American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 92, 1310–1323.10.1093/ajae/aaq074CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Fontes et al. supplementary material

Fontes et al. supplementary material

Download Fontes et al. supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 1.4 MB