Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t7czq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T10:04:24.085Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Households' responses to climate change: contingent behavior evidence from rural South Africa

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 October 2017

Wijaya Dassanayake ,
Sandeep Mohapatra ,
Martin K. Luckert  and
Wiktor Adamowicz
Wijaya Dassanayake*
Affiliation:
School of Public Health, University of Alberta, 3-270 Edmonton Clinic Health Academy, Canada
Sandeep Mohapatra
Affiliation:
Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology, University of Alberta, Canada
Martin K. Luckert
Affiliation:
Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology, University of Alberta, Canada
Wiktor Adamowicz
Affiliation:
Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology, University of Alberta, Canada
*
*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We investigate households' decisions regarding livelihood activities in response to future climate change in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. We use the contingent behavior method and account for unobserved heterogeneity in order to overcome problems associated with limited data, collinearity and endogeneity. We characterize the climate change with two types of climate change scenarios: dry-spells and wet-spells. Results show that moderate and extreme increases in dry-spells increase adoption of off-farm activities such as casual labor and small business, and decrease adoption of on-farm activities such as gardening. We find opposite cases for mild or moderate wet-spells. Our results also show that households tend to diversify their livelihood portfolios in response to a moderate increase in dry-spells and a mild increase in wet-spells. Some household characteristics are also important in influencing some types of activities, including household's health status, gender of the household head, and household's prior experience.

Keywords

Adaptationclimate changecontingent behaviorlivelihoodsSouth Africa
Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 23 , Issue 1 , February 2018 , pp. 37 - 62
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Barnighausen, T, Tanser, F, Gqwede, Z, Mbizana, C, Herbst, K and Newell, ML (2008) High HIV incidence in a community with high HIV prevalence in rural South Africa: findings from a prospective population-based study. AIDS 22(1), 139–144.Google Scholar
Bryan, E, Deressa, TT, Gbetibouo, GA and Ringler, C (2009) Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints. Environmental Science & Policy 12(4), 413–426.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cameron, TA, Shaw, WD, Ragland, SE, Callaway, JM and Keefe, S (1996) Using actual and contingent behavior data with differing levels of time aggregation to model recreation demand. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 21(1), 130–149.Google Scholar
Campbell, BM, Jeffrey, S, Kozanayi, W, Luckert, M, Mutamba, M and Zindi, C (2002) Household livelihoods in semi-arid regions: options and constraints, Center for International Forestry Research, Bogor Barat 16680, Indonesia.Google Scholar
Card, D (2001) Estimating the return to schooling: progress on some persistent econometric problems. Econometrica 69(5), 1127–1160.Google Scholar
Chambwera, M and Stage, J (2010) Climate change adaptation in developing countries: issues and perspectives for economic analysis, International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), London WC1H 0DD, UK.Google Scholar
Chase, L, Lee, D, Schulze, W and Anderson, D (1998) Ecotourism demand and differential pricing of national park access in Costa Rica. Land Economics 74(4), 466–482.Google Scholar
Christie, M, Hanley, N and Hynes, S (2007) Valuing enhancements to forest recreation using choice experiment and contingent behavior methods. Journal of Forest Economics 13(2–3), 75–102.Google Scholar
Deressa, TT, Hassan, RM, Ringler, C, Alemu, T and Yesuf, M (2009) Determinants of farmers' choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change 19(2), 248–255.Google Scholar
Di Falco, S (2014) Adaptation to climate change in Sub Saharan agriculture: assessing the evidence and rethinking the drivers. European Review of Agricultural Economics 41(3), 405–430.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Di Falco, S and Veronesi, M (2013) How can African agriculture adapt to climate change? A counterfactual analysis from Ethiopia. Land Economics 89(4), 743–766.Google Scholar
Doss, CR and Morris, ML (2001) How does gender affect the adoption of agricultural innovations? The case of improved maize technology in Ghana. Agricultural Economics 25(1), 27–39.Google Scholar
Feder, G (1980) Farm size, risk aversion, and the adoption of new technology under uncertainty. Oxford Economic Papers 32(2), 263–282.Google Scholar
Gbetibouo, GA (2009) Understanding farmers' perceptions and adaptations to climate change and variability: the case of the Limpopo Basin, South Africa, Discussion Paper 00849, IFPRI, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Goodhue, RE, Klonsky, K and Mohapatra, S (2010) Can an education program be a substitute for a regulatory program that bans pesticides? Evidence from a panel selection model. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 92(4), 956–971.Google Scholar
Greene, W (2004) Interpreting estimated parameters and measuring individual heterogeneity in random coefficient models, Department of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012, USA.Google Scholar
Greene, W (2008) Functional forms for the negative binomial model for count data. Economic Letters 99(3), 585–590.Google Scholar
Groom, B, Kontoleon, A and Swanson, T (2007) Valuing complex goods: or, can you get anything out of experts other than a decision? In Zerbe, RO (ed.). Research in Law and Economics 23. Bingley BD16 1WA, United Kingdom: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp. 301–335.Google Scholar
Hachigonta, S and Reason, CJC (2006) Interannual variability in dry and wet spell characteristics over Zambia. Climate Research 32(1), 49–62.Google Scholar
Hubbell, B, Marra, MC and Carlson, GA (2000) Estimating the demand for a new technology: Bt cotton and insecticide policies. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 82(1), 118–132.Google Scholar
Knight, J, Weir, S and Woldehanna, T (2003) The role of education in facilitating risk-taking and innovation in agriculture. Journal of Development Studies 39(6), 1–22.Google Scholar
Kurukulasuriya, P and Mendelsohn, R (2008) Crop switching as an adaptation strategy to climate change. African Journal Agriculture and Resource Economics 2(1), 105–126.Google Scholar
Masanjala, W (2007) The poverty-HIV/AIDS nexus in Africa: a livelihood approach. Social Science & Medicine 64(5), 1032–1041.Google Scholar
Mendelsohn, R and Neumann, J (1999) The impact of climate change on the United States. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mendelsohn, R, Nordhaus, WD and Shaw, D (1994) The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. The American Economic Review 84(4), 753–771.Google Scholar
Mendelsohn, R, Nordhaus, WD and Shaw, D (1996) Climate impacts on aggregate farm value: accounting for adaptation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 80(1), 55–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mogotsi, K, Nyangito, MM and Nyariki, DM (2011) The perfect drought? Constraints limiting Kalahari agro-pastoral communities from coping and adapting. African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 5(3), 168–177.Google Scholar
Morton, KM, Adamowicz, WL and Boxall, PC (1995) Economic effects of environmental quality change on recreational hunting in northwestern Saskatchewan: a contingent behavior analysis. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 25(6), 912–920.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mullahy, J (2017) Marginal effects in multivariate probit models. Empirical Economics 52(2), 447–461.Google Scholar
Müller, TR (2004) HIV/AIDS and Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: Impact on Farming Systems, Agricultural Practices and Rural Livelilhoods – An Overview and Annotated Bibliography. Wageningen, Netherlands: Wageningen Academic Pub.Google Scholar
Munthali, AC and Ali, S (2000) Adaptive strategies and coping mechanisms: the effect of HIV/AIDS on the informal social security system in Malawi, Government of Malawi, National Economic Council, Lilongwe.Google Scholar
Ncube, K, Shackleton, CM, Swallow, B and Dassanayake, W (2016) Impacts of HIV/AIDS on food consumption and wild food use in rural South Africa. Food Security 8(6), 1135–1151.Google Scholar
Niehof, A (2004) The significance of diversification for rural livelihood systems. Food Policy 29(4), 321–338.Google Scholar
Norris, E and Batie, S (1987) Virginia farmers' soil conservation decisions: an application of tobit analysis. Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics 19(1), 89–97.Google Scholar
Perret, S (2002) Livelihood strategies in rural Transkei (Eastern Cape Province): how does wool production fit in?, Working Paper: 2002-20, Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa.Google Scholar
Porter, JR and Semenov, MA (2005) Crop responses to climatic variation. Philosophical Transactions B 360, 2021–2035.Google Scholar
Pyle, DM (2007) Severe convective storm risk in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. Ph.D. thesis, Rhodes University, South Africa.Google Scholar
Qaim, M and de Janvry, A (2002) Bt cotton in Argentina: analyzing adoption and farmers' willingness to pay, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley.Google Scholar
Rahm, MR and Huffman, WE (1984) The adoption of reduced tillage: the role of human capital and other variables. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 66(4), 405–413.Google Scholar
Reason, CJC, Hachigonta, S and Phaladi, RF (2005) Interannual variability in rainy season characteristics over the Limpopo region of Southern Africa. International Journal of Climatology 25(14), 1835–1853.Google Scholar
Richardson, R and Loomis, J (2004) Adaptive recreation planning and climate change: a contingent visitation approach. Ecological Economics 50(1), 83–99.Google Scholar
Roncoli, MC, Ingram, K and Kirshen, P (2001) The costs and risks of coping with drought: livelihood impacts and farmers' responses in Burkina Faso. Climate Research 19(2), 119–132.Google Scholar
Roncoli, C, Ingram, K and Kirshen, P (2002) Reading the rains: local knowledge and rainfall forecasting among farmers of Burkina Faso. Society and Natural Resources 15(5), 411–430.Google Scholar
Seo, SN and Mendelsohn, R (2008) Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management. Agricultural Economics 38(2), 151–165.Google Scholar
Seo, SN, Mendelsohn, R and Munasinghe, M (2005) Climate change and agriculture in Sri Lanka: a Ricardian valuation. Environment and Development Economics 10(5), 581–596.Google Scholar
Shackleton, C and Shackleton, S (2004) The importance of non-timber forest products in rural livelihood security and as safety nets: a review of evidence from South Africa. South African Journal of Science 100, 658–664.Google Scholar
Shewmake, S (2008) Vulnerability and the impact of climate change in South Africa's Limpopo River Basin, Discussion Paper 00804, IFPRI, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Sivakumar, MVK (2006) (2006) Climate prediction and agriculture: current status and future challenges. Climate Research 33(1), 3–17.Google Scholar
Smit, B and Wandel, J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change 16(3), 282–292.Google Scholar
Smithers, J and Smit, B (1997) human adaptation to climatic variability and change. Global Environmental Change 7(3), 129–146.Google Scholar
Spivey, C (2010) Desperation or desire? The role of risk aversion in marriage. Economic Inquiry 48(2), 499–516.Google Scholar
Usman, MT and Reason, CJC (2004) Dry-spell frequencies and their variability over Southern Africa. Climate Research 26(3), 199–211.Google Scholar
Whitehead, JC, Phaneuf, D, Dumas, CF, Herstine, J, Hill, J and Buerger, B (2010) Convergent validity of revealed and stated recreation behavior with quality change: a comparison of multiple and single site demands. Environmental and Resource Economics 45(1), 91–112.Google Scholar
Zhang, L, Rozelle, S and Huang, J (2001) Off-farm jobs and on-farm work in periods of boom and bust in rural China. Journal of Comparative Economics 29(3), 505–526.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Dassanayake et al supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Dassanayake et al supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 338.5 KB